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More on the iPhone: Gene Munster says his latest Apple Store checks indicate "the iPhone 5 has...

More on the iPhone: Gene Munster says his latest Apple Store checks indicate "the iPhone 5 has finally reached a point where consumers can walk into an Apple Store and walk out with a phone." He also notes AT&T, Verizon, and Sprint are all "showing 90%+ availability" for the iPhone, which recently saw its shipping time on Apple's online store fall to 1 week. Munster still forecasts 45M Dec. quarter iPhone sales - he was predicting 49M when the quarter started. (previous)
Comments (27)
  • donklos
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    It'll be interesting to see the market's reaction to this. With Apple, if there's so much demand that they can't make enough no matter what they do, the stock takes a hit, even if the demand is unprecedented and through the roof. And now that there's product in the stores the market may think they're not selling as they should, and can adversely affect the stock price too. Damned if they do; damned if they don't.
    29 Nov 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • KenNagle
    , contributor
    Comments (280) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunatley, you are correct. But, I think that once the market understands that demand is very strong with new distribution points coming on line the stock will react very favorable.
    29 Nov 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • donklos
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    Hope you're right. It must be one of the most difficult things to do well... predict demand for these products.
    29 Nov 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • rickymm3
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    its not that hard to predict...go into any apple store and any day and watch them fly off shelves.
    29 Nov 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • pocohonta
    , contributor
    Comments (536) | Send Message
     
    The price disparity will get reconciled 4 times a year, during the earning announcement when the EPS, sales, margin and unit numbers is compared against consensus. The 45M forecast is conservative and easily beaten during January EPS announcement if the supply constraint continues to improve.
    29 Nov 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Positiveprosperity
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Apple's fundamentals are solid, as a long-term investor who believes in the companies products and their competent management led by Tim Cook alot of the price volatility and damned if they do or don't fluctuations is due to profit taking by some long-term investors, and institutional investors but is largely due to short traders downplaying good news and playing up bad news to create unnecessary anxiety in some investors so they sell or do not buy Apple stock to create large price ranges for short term trading purposes. This occurs in Apple more than most stocks. Apples intrinsic value based on it's fundamentals such as a low forward PE, low PE and very low PEG of .53 along with much upside in potential growth opportunity via new products/services along with refreshes to current ones, would be in the 780-820 range. It is in the best interest of long-term investors and any tech enthusiast who admires Apple products for Apple to continue to innovate entirely new products/services. With current refreshes the company will see approx. 20% growth annually over next 5 yrs which is inline with the growth in tablet/handheld computing and the popularity of all Apple products itunes, ibooks ect.. Long-term active investors can email, write, phone Apple, investor relations, Cook at tcook@apple.com, he or an assistant emails back periodically encouraging ongoing innovation/creation of new products ect..
    29 Nov 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • css1971
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    The Lumia 920 is the new hot phone. People are looking for something new and exciting, you have to admit that the iPhone's kind of old hat and rather insipid.
    (Long NOK)
    29 Nov 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Alpozin
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    iOS still has a lot of room for improvement and new features. Widget could be next. I won't be surprise if they introduce widgets in their next software release. we are already seeing widgets in cydia (which is a jailbreak version of app store). I am sure apple are toying around with widgets in cydia right now.
    29 Nov 2012, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • dwilly
    , contributor
    Comments (93) | Send Message
     
    you got to be kidding?
    30 Nov 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • bgold1955
    , contributor
    Comments (1938) | Send Message
     
    Got a 5 yesterday in the color I wanted. No line but store was packed and amazingly staffed that i had no wait. Great phone and LTE is blazing. I'd say at least 5-6 times faster than what I replaced, 3GS. In a non wireless environment. I am very happy with purchase. Long aapl.
    29 Nov 2012, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • dwilly
    , contributor
    Comments (93) | Send Message
     
    got mine a month ago, same conclusion, love it!
    29 Nov 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • ArmchairHero
    , contributor
    Comments (114) | Send Message
     
    45m would be a real disappointment. Mr Market will not like it.
    29 Nov 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • bgold1955
    , contributor
    Comments (1938) | Send Message
     
    51m iPhones and iPad will blow past estimates.
    29 Nov 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • ArmchairHero
    , contributor
    Comments (114) | Send Message
     
    Next to zero chance of that happening with China delay, supply problems affecting part/most of the Q. Munster's been pretty accurate when it comes to sales estimates.
    29 Nov 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • 100XT
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    How do people outside of Apple, get their estimates on units sold? How can this guy be accurate or more accurate? Like you said, Mr. Market will not like it. Then sell before announcement. Take the money and run, cause this kind of gets silly....hoping and wishing and wanting.
    29 Nov 2012, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • bgold1955
    , contributor
    Comments (1938) | Send Message
     
    He was wrong this time last year. Been right since but was wrong.
    29 Nov 2012, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • bgold1955
    , contributor
    Comments (1938) | Send Message
     
    Got a mini first day available and I believe if there is going to be a shortage that the mini may be it due to how popular i think it will be this holiday. A perfect device for me. Replaced original iPad and couldn't be happier.
    29 Nov 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • ssl23
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    I am long apple and i am concerned....even if Apple makes this quarter and next, you need to sell the rallys in this stock...

     

    why? Cause it doesnt matter how great of a Co. and product apple has HAD...the future says that smartphone prices are coming down across the board...apples margins will come down.

     

    why? Cause Google is selling a $500 phone without contract at $300..and its as good or better than iphone5 that's selling for $600-700...

     

    Also because of Google's pricing of nexus 4...the prices of older...unlocked phones will drop significantly from current levels..

     

    Add to that a 500 billion dollar market cap...and to grow at even 15%-25% could be a challenge if Google decides to keep selling phones at unsustainable margins for hardware makers.

     

    Iphone is over 60% of net profits, cut that in half and Apple is not a value company at this market cap....
    29 Nov 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • bgold1955
    , contributor
    Comments (1938) | Send Message
     
    Ssl23, I share your concern and even without some of your valid points, the wall streeters just will not let the stock price be fairly valued except after certain blowout qtrs (1st and 2nd calendar qtrs). And I agree that profit taking is never a bad thing but since I bought 2 different devices recently after comparing to others, there is absolutely no question in MY mind that Apple is so far ahead in quality. But quality is very subjective out there so best of luck and keep diversified.

     

    One point I disagree at this time, AAPL Is a value buy.
    29 Nov 2012, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mike Voelk
    , contributor
    Comments (173) | Send Message
     
    Hmm, I just don't see that hanging out at some store can give you enough empirical data to peg iPhone sales accurately. I bought an iPad mini today. One store in the area had none, and one had limited models, and the online store said ships in 2 weeks. The lady at the store that had none said the entire situation can change in the morning as the shipments are blind. I don't see where the projections can be very accurate based on those data sources.
    29 Nov 2012, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • berniespear
    , contributor
    Comments (232) | Send Message
     
    Yeah i finally got my iphone 5 and agree that it is blazing fast and great.

     

    True they are in the stores now but they are gone by before noon and you'll be in a lonnnnng line. You (I) had to get it online at 10pm to pick up the next day, really the only way to do it these days.
    29 Nov 2012, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS-2.0
    , contributor
    Comments (525) | Send Message
     
    All those channel checks mean nothing.

     

    Carrier activations are the only reliable data.

     

    Inventories and channel stuffing cannot affect them.

     

    Any other data is speculation.
    30 Nov 2012, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (4458) | Send Message
     
    You're missing the point. Carriers can't activate what they don't have. That the iPhone 5 is in high demand is not in question. What is in question is whether those who want it can get it. Carrier activations don't tell you this. Channel checks do.

     

    If you're implying that not many people are actually activating new iPhones, well, you'll just have to wait for the Verizon and ATT earnings calls I guess.
    30 Nov 2012, 02:53 AM Reply Like
  • bailinnumberguy
    , contributor
    Comments (1090) | Send Message
     
    I can just picture the Apple stores. "Who's on the phone?" "It's Gene Munster, he's checking on iPhones again." "Tell him to stop asking all these questions about what we have in stock and come in and buy something already."
    30 Nov 2012, 03:09 AM Reply Like
  • dwilly
    , contributor
    Comments (93) | Send Message
     
    Don't be stupid
    30 Nov 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4514) | Send Message
     
    at least Munster gets off his behind leaves his office and does some leather on the street research....
    30 Nov 2012, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • Mike Voelk
    , contributor
    Comments (173) | Send Message
     
    I would agree with that...and my original comment in no way was meant to disrespect Mr. Munster. I just don't see how observing that traffic parlays into a specific number. The anecdotal evidence can give you a sense of what is going on.

     

    For instance, at the mall I went to yesterday the Apple store had about 25 shoppers in it just after lunch on a weekday. I stopped by to look at the Surface booth, it looked cool enough but the traffic was 1 or 2 lookers and it only had Surface. What's cool about the Apple store is they have tons of display devices to play with and lots of Apple people to talk to. You feel a bit like family--no high pressure sales. You can see the entire eco-system there and compare products and get insights.
    30 Nov 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
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