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Initial reports of sellouts for Nokia's (NOK) Windows Phone 8 Lumia hardware are "misleading,"...

Initial reports of sellouts for Nokia's (NOK) Windows Phone 8 Lumia hardware are "misleading," thinks Deutsche's Kai Korschelt, since they have much to do with supply issues. "Anecdotal evidence suggests that many stores have only received 5-20 devices/store with wider carrier distribution delayed in some countries," Korschelt writes, while speculating 28nm chip shortages are to blame. He also claims U.K. retail survey and Google search interest data for the Lumia line is underwhelming. (Raymond James)
Comments (76)
  • Zankudo
    , contributor
    Comments (223) | Send Message
     
    Oh well lets throw in the towel then...the big boys are always right.
    29 Nov 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • stealthology
    , contributor
    Comments (308) | Send Message
     
    ...or.. let's drive NOK's price temporarily down?
    29 Nov 2012, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • Edaugh
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    Wow...I guess GS really screwed up buying all those shares then..
    29 Nov 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • css1971
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    Indeed. No conflicts of interest there at all either.

     

    Wait, wasn't there something relatively recently about a housing bubble & massive market crash, huge investments in bankrupt sovereign bonds among others? Oh and a truly mind bendingly large amount of our money to bail them all out?

     

    Personally I like Goldman analysts. You can almost feel the greed like a physical presence in what they write. It's only a problem when two or more gang up and issue conflicting assessments. Best to step away at that point.
    29 Nov 2012, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Cindywu1018
    , contributor
    Comments (139) | Send Message
     
    Who is misleading? Deutsche bank is rediculous and misleading!

     

    Check this
    http://bit.ly/Ye4TaK

     

    7000 lumia 920 sold out in 7 hours in Hong Kong, with a polulation of 7 millions only!
    30 Nov 2012, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • mr wonder
    , contributor
    Comments (541) | Send Message
     
    When big investment banks recommendate to sell, they are only interested buying big themselves and visa versa.

     

    http://bit.ly/Yexk8p

     

    5 December Nokia launches Lumia 920 on China Mobile. :)

     

    PS. It is sad those misleading recommendation get adopted by the press so easily.
    30 Nov 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • mitrado
    , contributor
    Comments (1948) | Send Message
     
    "It is sad those misleading recommendation get adopted by the press so easily."

     

    I got a question for you. Who owns USA mainstream media!? ;-)
    30 Nov 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • geodan85
    , contributor
    Comments (161) | Send Message
     
    Goldman reminds me of the old S.G. Warburg in London they always seemed to have their analysts recommend or pan stocks that suited their trading positions.

     

    Look at Goldman's recent downgrade of CLF, it seems they are very late to the sell recommendation, but are attempting to drive the stock down another 10% to establish a very attractive entry point for themselves if they get any institutions to dump stock.
    30 Nov 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • rjgood
    , contributor
    Comments (233) | Send Message
     
    I like long NOK because I believe they will have all divisions in the black soon. There is significant Lumia buzz at the AT&T stores I have been to, which is an uplifting sign. And big box stores are currently pushing windows phones side by side with android.

     

    It is anybody's guess, but there is opportunity for NOK and MSFT to keep the momentum via solid marketing efforts.
    29 Nov 2012, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Dantes_Will
    , contributor
    Comments (323) | Send Message
     
    So this is the same Deutsche Bank that told investors that NOK is going bankrupt, while buying large quantities of shares last quarter?

     

    Or like how Goldman Sachs was telling the public that NOK will be worthless, while increasing their holdings in Q3 from 61M shares to 116M?

     

    If you believe the investment houses are putting out this info to help the investing public, then you've learned nothing from 2007.
    29 Nov 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Charles Santerre
    , contributor
    Comments (1242) | Send Message
     
    Dantes: precisely. "The investment" houses are there to serve themselves by any means legal or illegal. And if illegal, well, a tiny portion of their ill-gotten gains will pay the fines if they are caught and if prosecuted... By that time, the additional gains they will have made using their dirty money will diminish even more the importance of the fines. Wonderful, isn`t it? One day, the people will rise and crush them.
    29 Nov 2012, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • css1971
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    You started so well but "One day, the people will rise and crush them." ? Sorry, I'm with Huxley on that one. 400 years of the Bank of England and the people don't even know their chains exist.

     

    http://bit.ly/Tu1xsr

     

    Notice the bars and the chains.
    29 Nov 2012, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • turtledividend
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Its one of the reason why so many SA members says to do your own research / DD. Small or big institutions are quite the same, unfortunately the big ones can move the market. Nokia had caused such a disruption that it has become a headline stock and product. I believe I have found my Alpha! To Q4.
    29 Nov 2012, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • dakang
    , contributor
    Comments (187) | Send Message
     
    If history is a an aid, even if caught they will not be prosecuted but just pay a token fine. But if one of their boys works for the AG or Treasury, not even a fine.
    30 Nov 2012, 01:17 AM Reply Like
  • amphion
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Everyone can check to see if one of his claims, that Google search data is underwhelming or the same as last year is correct, by going to Google themselves.

     

    Google Trends for "Lumia":
    http://bit.ly/X5W2WU

     

    Notice the huge spike in interest after the announcement of Nokia's Lumia 920.

     

    So the analyst is full of crap, just sayin.
    29 Nov 2012, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • css1971
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    Looks about double to me. What could it be 7 million? 8 million? something like that? Now that would be interesting for the stock price.
    29 Nov 2012, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • alphaRAJU
    , contributor
    Comments (417) | Send Message
     
    All I know is that I bought the Nokia Lumia 900 in April, 2012 and love the phone. I've had no problems, in fact I'm waiting for it to freeze or something. But it keeps ticking. And I've gone back to the store to look at the iphone 5, what a rip off. No wonder their logo is getting bigger on the back of the phone. Android is ok. But we all know Nokia is here to stay. The race is just begun.
    29 Nov 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • sourdo
    , contributor
    Comments (203) | Send Message
     
    I'm writing this from my new Lumia 820, this is a great phone. The incoming email woke me from my nap :).
    Standard USB port, you can add a micro SD card, battery life is hunky dory so far, goes all day and night. No complaints at all. I like this phone very much. I think I,LL keep my 1000 NOK!
    29 Nov 2012, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • shangjeen
    , contributor
    Comments (316) | Send Message
     
    And the wonderful thing is?

     

    Even if the L920 is a complete, utter failure, Nokia would still hold relative value for someone who willing to look at the bigger picture.

     

    Navteq alone is worth multiple billions - besides Google and Garmin, there is simply no other company with as complete and high-quality data as Navteq. AAPL bought data from TomTom and, well, it was quite frankly a joke.
    29 Nov 2012, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • mitrado
    , contributor
    Comments (1948) | Send Message
     
    "besides Google and Garmin, there is simply no other company with as complete and high-quality data as Navteq."

     

    Doh... Garmin uses NavTeq. :-P

     

    It's interesting to see TomTom losing the majority of its customers after they changed from NavTeq to some other crap. (TeleAtlas)

     

    And why has Apple joined forces with TomTom instead of any other company? Simple: TomTom maps might be the weakest of them all... but they are also the cheapest and we all know Apple goes to extremes to use the cheapest materials in their fabulous contraptions. Right?

     

    The cheapest, the better... it's Apple's new motto.
    30 Nov 2012, 06:06 AM Reply Like
  • alphaRAJU
    , contributor
    Comments (417) | Send Message
     
    I just laughed when I found out Apple had bought data from TomTom.
    30 Nov 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • jjmc2001
    , contributor
    Comments (1272) | Send Message
     
    Bottom line is most of the posters on SA know as much as the so called analysts. Until NOK announces actual 4th quarter sales all we are going to hear is speculation, channel checks, etc. I let my chocolate lab say hi to my daughter on my 920 via Skype and he gave it four tail wags out of five. He prefers the bigger screen to the Iphone 5. I value his opinion more than Goldman Sachs. He has never cheated or lied and totally trustworthy.
    29 Nov 2012, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • Rookie IRA Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2537) | Send Message
     
    I think it will be worth while to keep an eye on the Google trending figures for the Nokia 920 over the next few weeks.
    29 Nov 2012, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • ericmeister
    , contributor
    Comments (350) | Send Message
     
    How is this Google Search trend underwhelming? If compared "Lumia 920" and "Lumia 900" search levels, the trend shows Lumia 920 clearly wins the battle (relative search amount 100 vs 40). Also, the search trend is showing straight up, which indicates increasing interest towards the device

     

    http://bit.ly/Sxs49x

     

    Interesting to note, that when you replace "Lumia 900" with "Galaxy S", the difference is ONLY as big as between Lumia 920 and Lumia 900, (40 vs 100).

     

    When you replace "Galaxy S" with "HTC 8X", Lumia 920 is clear winner here, (100 vs 20)

     

    The biggest winner is of course iPhone 5 (100 vs 5). However, the difference in Nokia vs Apple brand comparison is not big at all (65 vs 75). Also, Apple brand is showing down and Nokia is showing up

     

    Deutche Bank has not probably understood that even if the numbers in stores were low, the demand is high. E.g. Swedish retailer explaines that the backlog is twice the amount of SGS3

     

    http://bit.ly/116j3ZU

     

    In Finland the carriers have told that the demand towards Lumia 920 is is bigger compared to 1st generation Lumias.

     

    http://bit.ly/Sxs49D
    29 Nov 2012, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • css1971
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    You've got an interesting research mechanism there. The correlation to shipped units might be a good thing to check when the numbers come out.

     

    I'm also interested in comparing with Twitter trends, anyone know of a site or url which can display that kind of stuff? The top google responses don't seem to provide that kind of info.
    30 Nov 2012, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • Peter Faux
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    LUMIA 920, best phone out there! Truly a state of the art device
    Sold out everywhere!
    Its camera (PUREVIEW), city lens, maps, super sensitive screen, resolution, its image stabilization, low light performance, wireless charging, etc makes it just fabulous!
    Thanks Nokia! Great JOB
    BUY BUY BUY BUY
    29 Nov 2012, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1075) | Send Message
     
    If there were a serious shortage of Lumia phones... you'd think they would be tough to find, particularly at a big discount.

     

    http://amzn.to/Yw5XFG

     

    Kind of skewers the idea that they are flying off the shelves so fact Nokia can't keep up.
    29 Nov 2012, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • mepa84
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    @ Dennis
    Your comment clearly shows that you have no idea about this market. This is not a discount but a subsidy, which is paid by AT&T. I really recommend you to stay away from this market before losing your hard working savings.
    29 Nov 2012, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1075) | Send Message
     
    Maybe you should actually check facts before tossing out insults.

     

    AT&T's subsidized price is $99. Amazon has it discounted $30 to $69. That's a discount on top of the subsidy.
    29 Nov 2012, 11:53 PM Reply Like
  • ericmeister
    , contributor
    Comments (350) | Send Message
     
    @Dennis

     

    Do your study better

     

    The price of the Lumia 920 on Amazon reflects constantly on either
    a) the other phone discounts on Amazon
    b) the price of Lumia 920 on Walmart
    30 Nov 2012, 02:20 AM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1075) | Send Message
     
    @ericmeister – I'm not sure there is much study that needs to be done.

     

    Things that are in *high demand* don't get discounted, it's basic economics, companies want to maximize profits. If I'm going to sell 200 phones and I have the choice of selling them at $99 or selling them at $69, I'm going to sell them at $99. Some individual sellers might discount the product regardless of demand, but those sellers would quickly run out of stock and the market as a whole wouldn't support the discounted price. The fact that multiple vendors are discounting the phone is an even bigger indication that demand is not "excellent".

     

    The $99 subsidized price is what Nokia and AT&T announced when they released the phone and was widely circulated http://bit.ly/Va04aV

     

    It's possible there is great demand in Europe, but not here, if so I'm certain Nokia will shift more phones to Europe than the states. Either way, discounting is pretty clear the demand isn't high in the states.
    30 Nov 2012, 04:59 AM Reply Like
  • turtledividend
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Hi Dennis, Its hard to bite my tongue while drinking my morning coffee. I did not want to add fuel to the fire, but your statement about what basic economics holds no credence whatsoever. Here is my take on basic economics 101.

     

    1. When we make a decision we implicitly compare the costs and benefits of our choice on a business or a product.

     

    2. Basic economics assumes that people act rationally and try to act so as to gain the most benefit for themselves when comparing cost.

     

    3. The public responds to changes in price. So the public are more likely to buy something if it is cheaper. If a product becomes more costly, then there is an incentive to switch to other choices.

     

    This is what I learned from my economics classes 14yrs ago. I'm sure little has changed and these key points are still applied in present business models. I have learned much from your comment and now aware where you stand.

     

    All the best,
    Turtle
    30 Nov 2012, 06:11 AM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1075) | Send Message
     
    You are talking about demand and the choices a consumer makes when selecting a product. I am talking about demand and the choices a retailer or manufacturer makes to maximize profits.

     

    *Examples of strong demand*
    There is a wait list of 8-9 weeks for the Nexus 4, prices on secondary markets (eBay/ Amazon) are higher than the base price of the product.
    http://bit.ly/Yxcobw
    http://amzn.to/Vaap6F

     

    *An example of dwindling demand affecting pricing*
    The Samsung G3, it follows a classic product life-cycle, when it was introduced, pricing power was strong and it sold for the full $200 retail. Now six months out, demand is much weaker and they are discounting it to sell product.

     

    An analyst explains the effect on iPad mini pricing over Black Friday: http://bit.ly/11p4srX
    30 Nov 2012, 06:52 AM Reply Like
  • css1971
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    Just perhaps Nokia wants to make absolutely sure it becomes a player in the US market. Something it's mostly failed to do for the last decade... Which left the door wide open for RIMM, Apple and Google. It also explains the US CEO as well.

     

    920s are selling for €650 ($830) in Europe.

     

    ( e.g. http://bit.ly/WywbBX)

     

    You may want to think about stocking up on something which is clearly heavily subsidised for the US markets, you're getting a massive bargain that the rest of the world isn't.
    30 Nov 2012, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • turtledividend
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Hi Dennis,
    My statement was meant solely for my investment in NOK and how they are penetrating the U.S. market.

     

    Most innovative product - Captivate
    Exclusive partnership w/ AT&T 2nd largest carrier
    Discounted/Subsidized the price to penetrate market
    Control supply / increase demand
    Marketing / Advertising for enticement
    Social Disruption

     

    css1971 comment is spot on which applies to your " demand and the choices a retailer or manufacturer makes to maximize profits." Not only Europe --> China (southeast asia/asia continent) Middle East - Africa etcetera - etcetera. U.S. is just the icing on the cake and its looking very sweet for me as a shareholder/lumia 920 user.
    30 Nov 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • mr wonder
    , contributor
    Comments (541) | Send Message
     
    @ Dennis Baker
    $ 689,- for a black Lumia 920
    http://amzn.to/11q7MD4

     

    Not exaclty a discount.
    30 Nov 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1075) | Send Message
     
    >>> Nokia wants to make absolutely sure it becomes a player in the US market. Something it's mostly failed to do for the last decade... <<<

     

    Seems like as reasonable explanation as any for somewhat mixed signals.
    30 Nov 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Eld
    , contributor
    Comments (378) | Send Message
     
    Good point Dennis.
    30 Nov 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • ericmeister
    , contributor
    Comments (350) | Send Message
     
    @Dennis

     

    Have you ever heard of campaigns in the basic economics? How about price wars?

     

    If e.g. ALL SGS3 have discount from $150 to $0.01 during the weekend, would you keep your phone at $99? If your competitor sells the phone $20 cheaper, would you still keep it at $99? Which one sells more the same device, BestBuy at $150 or Walmart at $69?

     

    If so, I'm glad youre not the one selling these devices.
    30 Nov 2012, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1075) | Send Message
     
    Having a price war on product where demand is higher than supply is short lived . You lower the price and are the first one to run out of product. Your competitors sells just as much product at full price. You both wind up with empty shelves waiting for the next shipment.

     

    The S3 is a bad example, it's getting towards the end of it's product life-cycle. Samsung is already pushing rumors of the next big thing. Did you see a lot of price wars on the S3 from day 1?

     

    How much discounting was there on the Kinect during the first 3 months after it was released? The Nintendo Wii? The iPhone 5? The iPad mini?

     

    Products that are slammed with demand rarely get discounted, and when they do get discounted people buy them up and resell them. Look at the Nexus 4, they are being scooped up and resold at a premium. You can't buy the N4 at Google's price without an 8 week wait.
    30 Nov 2012, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • Ronin.
    , contributor
    Comments (1487) | Send Message
     
    If they are intentionally creating their own supply shortages, then they deserve even less credit than I have been giving them....brilliant...

     

    Were there lines overnight waiting for the rarified products?
    30 Nov 2012, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4511) | Send Message
     
    there was a line near Fh 's house inFinland
    30 Nov 2012, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1075) | Send Message
     
    I just want to repeat my original point because it seems lost in this weirdness.

     

    I'm not suggesting the 920 is doing poorly. Its entirely possible that demand is solid and Nokia is just doing a great job filling their channels. If that's the case, that's great news for Nokia.

     

    My comment was pointed at the claim that there is massive demand and shortages on the 920. At least here in the states, that's clearly not the case.
    30 Nov 2012, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • Ronin.
    , contributor
    Comments (1487) | Send Message
     
    Right...just us kidding around...
    30 Nov 2012, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4511) | Send Message
     
    oops sorry, retraction those were reindeer
    30 Nov 2012, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • Ronin.
    , contributor
    Comments (1487) | Send Message
     
    Ballmer in a big red suit, at the head of the reindeer...finally returning to support Nokia after giving them the shaft this summer...
    30 Nov 2012, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4511) | Send Message
     
    tried to shaft Paul Allen too....didn't get away with it....
    30 Nov 2012, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • ericmeister
    , contributor
    Comments (350) | Send Message
     
    @Dennis

     

    "You lower the price and are the first one to run out of product. "

     

    And if you remember at all what happened, everyone were complaining the demand which exceeded expectations. The ones with the low price were the first ones.

     

    "Samsung is already pushing rumors of the next big thing."

     

    Which does not affect to anything on today's pricing.

     

    "The S3 is a bad example... Did you see a lot of price wars on the S3 from day 1"

     

    Youre right. It is a bad example. You can not exactly compare 2 devices when the other one has huge market share already in the beginning. And while the device with huge market share is still a best seller, there is no reason to reflect a Lumia price to that one. Right?
    1 Dec 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • dakang
    , contributor
    Comments (187) | Send Message
     
    @DB In the large cities in SE China where McDonald's restaurants have long had a major presence and customers fill every spot to eat and circle the large restaurants with their trays looking for a spot to light, they have discounted combos on the menu over a three hour period lunch period by about 30%, and they followed this up after a few months with the same program for three hours during the evening dinner rush. Their stores are SRO, and every delivery boy is running. And as anyone who has ever bought anything on sale can tell you, It is just not the case that "things that are in 'high demand' don't get discounted."
    2 Dec 2012, 07:12 AM Reply Like
  • Dennis Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1075) | Send Message
     
    Would you say there a *shortage* of burgers on any given day? If they sell too many will they not have any the following day?
    2 Dec 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • mepa84
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    MARKET TALK: Jyske Bank Lifts Nokia Target Price
    5:04a ET November 29, 2012 (Dow Jones) MARKET TALK: Jyske Bank Lifts Nokia Target Price
    1004 GMT [Dow Jones] Jyske Bank lifts its Nokia (NOK) target price to EUR2.90 from EUR2.40, citing increased optimism that the company will meet sales expectations for Lumia smartphones. Notes media reports that the Lumia 920 is sold out in Germany, as well as reports about a successful reception of the flagship device in the US. Moreover, Jyske's sales check indicates strong sales and advance orders in France, Spain and the UK. Maintains a buy rating. Shares trade 2.1% higher at EUR2.598
    29 Nov 2012, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • chris SA
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Not sure if I trust this Deutsche "analyst"

     

    Or Ballmer "WP8 is selling 4x more than WP7.5 last year"

     

    Wait I think Ballmer wouldn't lie to investors with a straight face..
    30 Nov 2012, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • dakang
    , contributor
    Comments (187) | Send Message
     
    Idiotic conclusion by Korschelt for idiotic reasons. Just do the math. An average of say 12 units per store times how many stores? Times how many online entities? Very few who graduated from college with a degree that would lead to them being hired for this type of job could be incompetent enough to produce such an analysis.The only conclusion to be drawn is that his institution has a motive to depress the stock price.
    30 Nov 2012, 01:24 AM Reply Like
  • tomybhoy
    , contributor
    Comments (126) | Send Message
     
    Thats the problem with Nokia and I am long, the 920 phone should be popping up a lot more on searches, online adverts etc, they seriously need to get someone in marketing that knows how to at least communicate with a mass audience in developed Countries.
    30 Nov 2012, 03:00 AM Reply Like
  • css1971
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    They're selling out everywhere already. They'd need to ramp stocks up before they can push a big campaign.
    30 Nov 2012, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • Oscarapple
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    I think there is too much talk about the smartphone side of the NOK´s overall business.

     

    Let´s remember that it is only a small portion of the hole company.

     

    4G is here already and crowing fast.

     

    http://onforb.es/X7E06C

     

    Compared to RIMM, NOK is in my view in a way better position.

     

    Disclosure : Long NOK, if the stock gone fall I am just keeping adding more worked so far.
    30 Nov 2012, 06:33 AM Reply Like
  • mitrado
    , contributor
    Comments (1948) | Send Message
     
    "Compared to RIMM, NOK is in my view in a way better position."

     

    Yep, I feel like NOK is way undervalued... and RIMM is still quite overvalued. RIMM is almost extinct and I don't see BB 10 changing anything. Why does the market give RIMM a higher valuation than NOK? Makes no sense to me.
    30 Nov 2012, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • mr wonder
    , contributor
    Comments (541) | Send Message
     
    When Goldman Sachs recommendate a buy on RIMM.... what would this mean.
    30 Nov 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • jtalpha75
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/TwgYAa

     

    here is lastest NOKIA 920 google trend

     

    i hate to say it buy Dennis maybe right, Why would amazon discount with such high demand-- however no one buys anything off Amazon untils it a deal, isnt that there niche to make things cheaper? undercut everyone else??? please your thoughts
    30 Nov 2012, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • Peter_Do
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    My guess is that they becausse none of them have ready inventory and need to compete with Walmart and other competitors to book revenue by locking in new contract customers. So even tho there are high demand, if they can lock in these contract, send the order into AT&T (and the customers can wait for however long to get their phones due to shortages), they can recognize their referral fees. It's a game of chicken.

     

    Further, if the price is the same as AT&T, why should people buy from Amazon or Walmart when they can buy from AT&T. Especially if the wait time to get the phone is the same? They can probably charge the same price if the wait time is shorter, which I do not think is the case (can be wrong on this). Further, if Amazon holds out and not give discount, and Walmart decides to give the $30 discounts, Amazon would lose the sales to Walmart. The reason why AAPL is able to keep the iPhone undiscounted is by controlling the distribution of the subsidized contracts. You can only get the iPhone with contract price from AAPL store or ATT/Verizon etc...(believe this is still the case).

     

    In short, the current available stock of Lumia phones may be short versus current demand (hence the required wait). But when compared to what they can produce in the future, obviously you can have infinite supply. And this is the case here. You are locking in current demand and meet them with future supply. Those who must have the phone now can go on craiglists or eBay and last I check they are only available off contract and more expensive than price charge by AT&T (which is $450).
    30 Nov 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • jjmc2001
    , contributor
    Comments (1272) | Send Message
     
    "The reason why AAPL is able to keep the iPhone undiscounted is by controlling the distribution of the subsidized contracts. You can only get the iPhone with contract price from AAPL store or ATT/Verizon etc...(believe this is still the case)"
    This is simply not true. Third party retailers such as Best Buy offer the exact same phones and pricing as AT&T stores. We bought an iphone 5 (subsidized by AT&T) at Best Buy and the experience was actually much better than AT&T with no problems. Would have bought my Lumia 920 at Best Buy but they did not yet have them in stock.
    30 Nov 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • mr wonder
    , contributor
    Comments (541) | Send Message
     
    Not that it matters much at a total scale of sales.... but, as a rather neutral country preorders of the Lumia 920 in the Netherlands are equal or even exceeding those of the iPhone 5.

     

    (for those who speak Dutch ;) )
    http://bit.ly/TqL9cr
    30 Nov 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Eld
    , contributor
    Comments (378) | Send Message
     
    I think the chip shortage info has been undervalued by many.

     

    AAPL is the first partner of Qualcomm for these chips, so expect AAPL to be served first.

     

    Without chips, no phones. Exactly what is happening with Lumia 920: high demand, no phones. Nice SCM!
    30 Nov 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • mr wonder
    , contributor
    Comments (541) | Send Message
     
    What kind of chips do you mean?
    The iPhone is running a different cpu (their own A6 chip).
    The HTC x8 uses the same cpu (snapdragon) as the Lumia 920.
    30 Nov 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Ronin.
    , contributor
    Comments (1487) | Send Message
     
    Qualcomm and its foundry partners supply the chips that provide 3G and 4G connectivity for most mobile devices....not the CPUs.
    30 Nov 2012, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Eld
    , contributor
    Comments (378) | Send Message
     
    @ mr wonder: I'm talking about the LTE chip equipping iP5 and L820/920.
    2 Dec 2012, 03:39 AM Reply Like
  • needsomebling
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
     
    The strategy of discounting phones is similar to what RIMM did (and does) where it heavily discounts the phones to get it into as many hands as possible, the only driver for NOK right now is units sold as that is the key metric that matters to investors over margins etc.

     

    In Canada RIM phones werem ostly discounted to $0 -$99 when RIM phones were still popular
    30 Nov 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Alan Greenspam
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    To understand today's analyst Kai Korschelt at Deutsche Bank comment, you need to look at a 3 month chart of Nokia's (NOK) stock price. Korschelt/Deutsche Bank *downgraded* Nokia to a "Sell" exactly at the September 6 low. In other words, Korschelt/Deutsche Bank "made the bottom" in the stock. No wonder they are trying to push the stock down: They look like fools.
    30 Nov 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Charles Santerre
    , contributor
    Comments (1242) | Send Message
     
    All the analysts and ratings houses are there to serve themselves. Look at this instablog titled "Are Standard & Poor’s Opinions misleading and is Goldman Sachs ripping us off?"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    1 Dec 2012, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • mitrado
    , contributor
    Comments (1948) | Send Message
     
    Charles Santerre: Of course they are.

     

    I bought VRTX around $30, when these guys were Downgrading the Stock. I've sold it around $54 when they started Upgrading VRTX to price targets well over $80. GS even said it would go up to $100.

     

    Guess what? After a single day when it traded around $64, it never got there again... and now it's back to $40.

     

    This is just an example. This year alone, I had similar experiences with SDRL and GOOG.
    2 Dec 2012, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • jtalpha75
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    trust no one!
    2 Dec 2012, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • jtalpha75
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    when you add in I5 sales royalites, rim royalites, asha sales and payments from microsoft, costing cutting, the navteq sales, and saving from resturcturing... lumia doesnt really have to be the best seller, money saved is money earned, nok has beat the last 3 qtrs and i see it beating again, 3 straight ..this will take the stock higher
    2 Dec 2012, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Eld
    , contributor
    Comments (378) | Send Message
     
    @ jt: MSFT payment is a lure. It is compensated by minimum royalties paid by NOK to MSFT. The difference is a bit in favour of NOK, recognized in COGS.

     

    As for saving from restructuring: there is a long way to go. 38,000 employees generate EUR 3.3bn sales in smartphone div. AAPL generate $30bn with 30,000 employees (including all their activities though). More lay-offs (ie more costs) are coming in 2013.
    3 Dec 2012, 03:15 AM Reply Like
  • jtalpha75
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    Eld, layoffs are good, with all this money coming in , nothing to worry about, again Lumia sales are just gravy
    3 Dec 2012, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • Eld
    , contributor
    Comments (378) | Send Message
     
    Layoffs are good, but they cost :-)
    A clear NOK will be not before Q3/Q4 2013
    3 Dec 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • jtalpha75
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    clearly a company making the right moves to turn things around, a golden cross is forming, check your charts!!!
    3 Dec 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
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