Seeking Alpha

Some of Berenberg's 2013 tech predictions: 1) The R&D-intensive mobile chip market will see...

Some of Berenberg's 2013 tech predictions: 1) The R&D-intensive mobile chip market will see consolidation and possible exits, benefiting Qualcomm, Samsung, and MediaTek at the expense of rivals. 2) Samsung will rely on its own baseband chips, a negative for Qualcomm, Broadcom, and others. 3) Huawei will strike a reseller deal with IBM, which will threaten Cisco and Juniper's margins. 4) Apple will launch an iOS MacBook Air (questionable), a cheaper iPhone (less so), and the mythical Apple TV set. 5) Windows 8 and Windows Phone will disappoint.
Comments (21)
  • Yawn at all the W8 hate. Analysts can stop fawning over AAPL
    1 Dec 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • chopchop, are u still here? do u do anything else?
    1 Dec 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • obviously you don't. quit following me around and trolling every AAPL thread you can find
    1 Dec 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Anyone find this guy's previous predictions? Isn't the Apple TV getting old yet? Wasn't that supposed to be a few years ago?
    1 Dec 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • Berenberg is an investment bank. They are heavily into Apple and Samsung. They bring out recommendations (predictions) to serve their own investing interests. Better not trust or act on these predictions. Like all investment banks, they make lots of money on you (private investor).
    1 Dec 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • Aren't all those so called "pundits" who put out predictions under fancy name banners, really to serve their own ends? Even Goldman puts out research notes and at the same time take counter positions. Wall St is full of it. Most of that is arm chair analysis anyways.


    Its best to stop listening to them and do your own research. Its not that hard, with all the free and unbiased data that is available out there.
    1 Dec 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Predicted the Samsung switch to their own baseband back in October. 2013 should be a good year for SIMO.

    1 Dec 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Given that IBM's Huawei strategic alliance in China seems to have ended in tears, why would IBM be taking Huawei to the world?
    1 Dec 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Win8 is a new platform. If you thought it would beat its competition so easily you are nuts. Win8 competes with Win7 and Xp, which are very well liked by their users. It will do great as the touchscreens become mainstay in corporate environments. Everyone uses a computer at work. And I would guess people don't want multiple platforms. You get to choose what you use at home, not what you use at work. Therefore Win8 will prevail.


    And another argument is: If you look back at history, MSFT never released a great product, it just re-engineered a marginal product and made it a great product. Win8 will be a great product in a few years.
    1 Dec 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • ...691, Your comments on Mr. Softee are very true. It takes a couple of years for Microsoft to finally put out a great product, but who wants to be a "beta tester"? Hence the slow start for Win8. Sales of 40 million? Lift the hood and you see most of those were to manufacturers for future Win8 production.


    The Surface is having a tough time of it. Prices of the upgraded device are far higher than most estimated. This is Mr. Softee's big venture into manufacturing. Cross your fingers if you are an investor.


    I do disagree with your assessment that people don't want multiple platforms. As the Bring Your Own Device catches on (and it is catching on), more demands will be made to allow various operating systems to work in the enterprise space.


    The pc market share is on a decline. Per yesterday's WSJ, a survey taken of retailers showed pc sales declined by 21% yoy over since the Surface was placed on sale.
    1 Dec 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • How so? I was seeing estimates of $999, so this is about inline, no?
    1 Dec 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • The best decision and easiest prediction to make is to short AAPL on every bounce. Not enough China interest & sales to boost this Q's EPS past 12. Chinese are much more sophisticated buyers and investors than the typical U.S. iSheep. More and more are turning to Android.


    The rest of the problems I've already listed numerous times and iFans' only responses are personal attacks.
    2 Dec 2012, 12:12 AM Reply Like
  • I've responded several times without attacking you. You have said the iPhone is a dud. I have asked you to guess how many they will sell this qtr. In another comment you suggested that the street will be disappointed if they sell 45 million. Now it's just a matter of waiting to see how accurate your predictions about AAPL and the iPhone are. My guess is that January will be very good for the stock and we will see very strong numbers for the iPad and iPhone that the market will receive well. I think 45 million would be greeted warmly by the street. That is a crazy amount of iPhones to sell in one quarter.
    2 Dec 2012, 12:45 AM Reply Like
  • DM I wasn't referring to you, and I could care less about personal attacks, since it comes from those who cannot refute most if not all of the negatives I keep pointing out.


    I am guessing they will sell in the low 40's, but for argument's sake if they sell 45 I still think the Street will be disappointed and AAPL's stock will be pressured and driven down. I think they need at least 50 and an EPS of 15, 16 to continue their growth rate from last year's Q and then the massive bull run in the stock should continue. Without a massive blowout EPS best case scenario for the stock is range bound but considering how over weight and one sided the hedge funds and entire market are in AAPL, it'll be a stampede out of the same door.
    2 Dec 2012, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • Sometimes I think the big money is having too much fun running it up and running it back down for it not to have a big bounce. How could they make all that money shorting if they didn't let it rise again?


    I'm not really conspiratorial, but the pattern is clear enough. I expect a decent rise in Jan and Feb followed by some non-trivial pullback.


    Even though there were 14 weeks in q1 last year, and matching last year's EPS would be beating it in some real sense, I don't think the market will view it that way. I think 15 would please the market a great deal and also is possible even with 45 million iPhones sold as long as the iPads and computers are robust enough. But I am not counting on 15 by any stretch.
    2 Dec 2012, 03:12 AM Reply Like
  • prediction number 6: chopcop,armchairhero,f... and richbar will continue anti apple prapoganda
    2 Dec 2012, 06:12 AM Reply Like
  • The products suck. The marketing and stock performance doesn't.


    I own some AAPL stock btw for iSheep like you and rocback. Keep buying ICrap this holiday season!!
    2 Dec 2012, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • so, you "own some stock" and keep bashing the company at the same time then. see how many negatif messages you dropped on seekingalfa to bash aapl. only a moron would own the stock but bash the company. iMoron, or NokMoron doesnt matter. still moron. very funny.
    2 Dec 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Don't bash the company at all. I bash the products. The company (through Jobs) is/was a genius. Master marketers and product designers good at parting tech-challenged people with their hard-earned cash.


    Now that jobs is gone, I will likely scale back my position over the next few years. That being said, I think it has matured at this point and managed to convince people that it's a TIF, COH, Rolex etc. of electronics. Image is powerful, even when reality may be different


    Apple is trying to close its system even more now, trying to remove google (and amazon previously with the books thing) search and maps. It's definitely not to the benefit of their customers as much as it is to their bottom line, but as long as there are rabid devotees like you and rocback, I'll have a position in it to profit it from it.
    2 Dec 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • “With most handset vendors globally either losing money or only slightly breaking even, the future is not bright. Apple and Samsung account for ~50% of smartphone volumes and over 100% of industry profits,” he writes.


    How can you account for more than 100% of profits?
    2 Dec 2012, 06:30 AM Reply Like
  • If the rest on average are losing money....
    2 Dec 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)