Seeking Alpha

The ruling Fianna Fail party is annihilated, losing about 75% of its seats in the Irish...

The ruling Fianna Fail party is annihilated, losing about 75% of its seats in the Irish election. PM to be, Enda Kenny calls it a “democratic revolution ... (the voters) wreaked vengeance on those who let them down.” Next stop: bailout renegotiation. An EU bureaucrat warns, "Ireland's only role in this now is to implement the (bailout) ... Irish voters are not a party in this process."
Comments (10)
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    Better run bond holders...here comes a haircut.

     

    "Irish voters are not a party in this process." Iceland anyone?
    27 Feb 2011, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Leftfield
    , contributor
    Comments (3812) | Send Message
     
    "Irish voters are not a party in this process." This statement has the typical arrogance of all Western regimes now, written all over it.

     

    Time for voters to follow Iceland, now Ireland, to tell those types to get a real job, it's over. Of course, the Fine Gael winners are likely not much better than their deservedly trounced "opponents." It's a long slog for taxpayers to rid ourselves of the parasites that have driven most of the formerly prosperous economies of the planet into the ground.
    27 Feb 2011, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • bob adamson
    , contributor
    Comments (4558) | Send Message
     
    Here are Irish, UK and Canadian reports and analysis concerning the options opened by the February 25th election results for a new government and negotiations with Ireland’s EU partners, the EU Commission and the IMF respecting the future course of the Irish austerity program and banking debt. In the near term, expect there to be some accommodation over some details for implementation of the Irish and IMF/EU agreement of last November but not of the terms of that agreement as such.

     

    Over the next 12 to 18 months, however, expect serious negotiation amongst all the EU member States concerning the fiscal arrangements amongst the member States, particularly the divide between creditor States such as Germany and The Netherlands, on the one hand, and the fiscally stressed States such as Portugal, Greece, Belgium, Ireland etc., on the other. The fact that the creditor States benefit substantially from the EU wide common market for their exports and that their banking systems would be seriously damaged if the stressed States defaulted on bank related sovereign debt in an unplanned and uncoordinated way means that these negotiations will not be one sided in favour of the creditor States.

     

    www.rte.ie/news/2011/0...

     

    www.guardian.co.uk/wor...

     

    www.independent.ie/nat...

     

    www.irishtimes.com/new...

     

    www.independent.ie/nat...

     

    www.nationalpost.com/n...
    27 Feb 2011, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13387) | Send Message
     
    Not that anybody seems to understand or care about the stark difference between Iceland and Ireland, no matter what the Irish outcome may be, I feel compelled to correct a huge misconception, yet again.

     

    Iceland is not a member of the euro currency. Iceland (foolishly) over-borrowed in euros and dollars, so when the inability to service their debt arose, there was no ability to print currency or participate in euro-member emergency bailout provisions. Iceland didn't make some noble stand against a rescue; they had no reasonable alternative but to default. This wasn't a choice; it was an unavoidable reality. Iceland had no incentive to support the euro or its lenders.

     

    Ireland, as a euro member is a completely different situation. If they wish to reject a bailout and have all their financial institutions collapse, its within their power. If they make this choice, it will effectively end Ireland's participation in the euro. Rhetoric aside, I doubt this path will be chosen.

     

    My main point isn't to predict Irish behavior, however, it's to point out that Iceland and Ireland have little in common.
    27 Feb 2011, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Leftfield
    , contributor
    Comments (3812) | Send Message
     
    Irish participation in the EU has plenty in common with Obamacare in the US: Rules were bent sufficiently to sneak the measures through voters who were deeply divided if not mostly opposed.

     

    So, if Irish voters recognize the trap that the bureaucratic, bankster-centric EU holds for them and reject the bank bailout noose they are told they must accept, they will only be shedding a few years of a system that was fraudulently imposed and returning to sanity.

     

    It didn't hurt Argentina too much when they ditched this system of servitude to the kleptocracy and their situation was similar to Iceland's.

     

    I wish US voters similar success in shedding their vast, illegitimate government-imposed burdens. You say this shouldn't be too difficult as US debt is denominated in Federal Reserve Notes.
    27 Feb 2011, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13387) | Send Message
     
    Left:

     

    Just one observation:

     

    Argentina has always been buried under an persisting addiction to Peronist (socialist) giveaways, which they, like Iceland, tried to finance in U.S. dollars. I can tell you from personal experience, as an international businessman with friends in Argentina, that various currency collapses there didn't help anybody with money. Of course, if you didn't have any, it didn't make much difference.

     

    The Argentine experience does, however, carry stark warnings for the ever-pandering growth of Government-employee and union entitlements.
    27 Feb 2011, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • nobby73
    , contributor
    Comments (1177) | Send Message
     
    I'd like to clarify a point here - Iceland have not defaulted. The government refused to guarantee the liabilities and deposits of their banks, as they knew this would lead to default. The Irish government caused some surprise by giving a blanket guarantee for their banks, without even realizing the extent of the obligations, and have been forced to seek emergency loans from the ECB and EU (as well as simply printing money) as the markets were unwilling to lend.
    27 Feb 2011, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    I understand Ireland is presently tied to the euro vs Iceland...my point was, as you stated, it is within their power to end that relationship. I believe this will happen and perhaps spread to other satellite nations as they realize they cannot repay their debt. Demographics and lack of employment just isn't in their favor.
    28 Feb 2011, 06:48 AM Reply Like
  • bob adamson
    , contributor
    Comments (4558) | Send Message
     
    Papaswamp –

     

    Don’t be too quick to conclude that either Ireland or its EU partners will be too quick to dissolve either the currency or the customs union. As the following indicate, there is room to negotiate a middle course and we should not get spooked by the negotiation rhetoric along the way.

     

    www.rte.ie/news/2011/0...

     

    www.irishtimes.com/new...

     

    www.spiegel.de/interna...

     

    www.spiegel.de/interna...

     

    www.dw-world.com/dw/ar...

     

    www.economist.com/blog...
    28 Feb 2011, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • Steve in Greensboro
    , contributor
    Comments (632) | Send Message
     
    I love the arrogance of the EU bureaucrat quoted in the Telegraph article. "...Ireland's only role in this now is to implement the (bailout) ... Irish voters are not a party in this process." Resistance (to unelected government bureaucrats) is futile. Kind of like Americans and our bureaucrats.

     

    But the message to the Irish is clear. If you decline the bailout, no more free German money for your welfare programs. And why would the Irish turn down free German money? The only question is why are the German's funding this boondoggle.

     

    The Irish aren't the victims; they are the beneficiaries (along with of course the ever-expanding Eurostate).

     

    The German taxpayers are the victims.
    27 Feb 2011, 01:07 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Tools
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio:
Seeking Alpha's new ETF Hub
ETF Investment Guide:
Table of Contents | One Page Summary
Read about different ETF Asset Classes:
ETF Selector