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Though the blowout numbers kind of speak for themselves, Robert Toll makes the bullish case for...

Though the blowout numbers kind of speak for themselves, Robert Toll makes the bullish case for homebuilders in Toll's (TOL) earnings report: He notes a Harvard study showing household formations 1.8M-2.8M less than what would have been expected given population growth since 2007. Recent trends show these formations are starting to catch up. New homes built in 2012 will be about 750K, about half of what's needed to keep up with formations.
Comments (3)
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (2502) | Send Message
     
    It will motor right along till banks have to resume releasing that growing and huge inventory of distressed properties they've been hanging on to. As long as labor dept continues to report 400,000 new unemployment claims each week nothing will fundamentally change: house payment is the last thing to go and all the people who've been buying homes the last yr or so will join the underwater crowd where most of the people who took advantage of the home buying tax credit a few yrs ago are now.
    4 Dec 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • kwm3
    , contributor
    Comments (2453) | Send Message
     
    Good point, and it will zoom until the boomers start dumping en mass--my parents are starting to weed out their junk, in anticipation of selling and moving to a retirement community in 3-4 years. Then there's interest rates rising, college debt, etc... every factor is a negative.
    4 Dec 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • The EconomicJoker
    , contributor
    Comments (961) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    4 Dec 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
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