Estimating that disrupted Libyan oil production amounts to 850K to 1M BPD, the IEA says it's...

Estimating that disrupted Libyan oil production amounts to 850K to 1M BPD, the IEA says it's showing a noticeable effect on supplies, especially in Europe. The cutback will become more serious should it last into Spring, as refiners will begin operating at full capacity. Premarket: OIL +1.6%.

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  • bob adamson
    , contributor
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    The fact that pro-Gaddafi forces were over the past couple of days able to mount a counter-offensive and secure control of Tripoli while anti - Gaddafi forces appear to be standing up well in the face of this counter-offensive has increased fears that a protracted civil war might ensue and oil shipments from Libya (about 2$ of the international market) be substantially reduced. Arguably, while Gaddafi appears to have staved off immediate collapse, the current array of forces and circumstances do not suggest he can sustain prolonged resistance of strike a knock out blow in the immediate future against the insurgents. This being so, the contest should end soon provided the anti-Gaddafi forces remain cohesive.


    Reports from the international press on events as of March 4th and 5th in Libya describe a mixed situation for the contending parties. Pro-Gaddafi forces ostensibly have the advantage in organized, equipped and trained forces and are trying to use this advantage to effect by cowing Tripoli and attacking insurgent held areas. It is, however, open to question whether the pro-Gaddafi armed advantage on paper translates into a decisive advantage given the tribal nature of most of the army formations, the defection of most of the tribes in question to the insurgency, the loss to Gaddafi of the normal oil revenues and monies held abroad and clear lack of broad popular support.


    On the other hand, the anti-Gaddafi forces have the converse profile. While should give them the advantage in the longer run, they lack the organization to marshal their forces in the short run and this leaves them vulnerable provided (as hasn’t been the case to date) the pro-Gaddafi forces can strike effectively in force within the next week or so.


    The following articles and reports illustrate the state of affairs described above.







    4 Mar 2011, 03:24 PM Reply Like
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