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The rapid drop in the unemployment rate, now below 9%, has some thinking that the Fed may be...

The rapid drop in the unemployment rate, now below 9%, has some thinking that the Fed may be closer to starting tighter monetary policy. But if the lower rate is based on a shrinking labor force - at a 27-year low - are things really any better?
Comments (29)
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    All depends on who is, and isn't, along with how they're being counted.

     

    Given the fact that Food Stamp recipient roles seem to hit a new high every month, the data may be suspect.
    4 Mar 2011, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • realornot
    , contributor
    Comments (1281) | Send Message
     
    Just wait for Winconsin, Ohio, Indiana, Nevada, California..... public workers to get laid off. Numbers will be ugly again. Public workers are the next big shoe to drop. Another shock wave!
    4 Mar 2011, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Most of them (given union featherbedding rules) don't really do much anyway. So if you let them go, are they newly unemployed, or just denied their weekly "entitlement checks" along with overly generous benefit checks. (Bribe money in exchange for votes) Like I said, it's how you classify and/or count 'em.
    4 Mar 2011, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • mikeybronx
    , contributor
    Comments (347) | Send Message
     
    Well unemployment was pegged at around 9.6% when in reality it was around 16%. to 17% . So if the suspect way of determining unemployment was used and the new number is below 9% now ,then real unemployment is just below 16%? wow...great news! NOT
    4 Mar 2011, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • Neal Razi
    , contributor
    Comments (1214) | Send Message
     
    The key is that it's getting better, now matter what benchmark you use. It's all about the trend.
    5 Mar 2011, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • The Geoffster
    , contributor
    Comments (4011) | Send Message
     
    These government statistics are specious as everyone on this site knows. The Fed can't stop QE or rates will soar. The economy does not have enough juice to outrun the debt bomb.
    4 Mar 2011, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • Scootger
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    DOW 20k, but flash crash II first. Seek alpha not meaningless economic numbers/noise.
    All you permabears switch teams and try not to miss this next correction, again.
    Find fast growing companies that are cranking out sales EVERYWHERE, like SODA.
    4 Mar 2011, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • The Geoffster
    , contributor
    Comments (4011) | Send Message
     
    "DOW 20k nominal on QE maybe but not priced in gold. SODA? Pump and dump, eh?
    4 Mar 2011, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • mgj
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    1.1 million legal immigrants last year. 1 million illegal immigrants estimated. They are coming faster than jobs are created. Why doesn't the media make this connection?
    4 Mar 2011, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • mikeybronx
    , contributor
    Comments (347) | Send Message
     
    ask the man in the White house
    4 Mar 2011, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Ohrama
    , contributor
    Comments (512) | Send Message
     
    Would you rather have them (the legal immigrants) and let them pay taxes, social security tax (which they will never get back) etc. or work in India or China? Further, to raise and educate a kid to the college level, it costs something like a million dollar each (I raised two kids, I know!). It is all freebie for this country! And as for the illegal immigrants, if only the local folks who are living off like parasites on government handouts would do those jobs........?
    4 Mar 2011, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • positivethoughts
    , contributor
    Comments (1856) | Send Message
     
    If immigrants were selected based on the benefit they provided to the country they are immigrating to, then your argument would hold some weight. However, as I am sure you are aware, many immigrants are allowed entry to the U.S. (and Canada, which is where I live) that can't care for themselves and must rely on government programs.

     

    Between the illegals that cross the border and the legal immigrants that are supported due to an inability to pay for themselves, the good, capable and contributory ones get cancelled out many times over.
    4 Mar 2011, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • Neal Razi
    , contributor
    Comments (1214) | Send Message
     
    Immigration is good for the economy. Ask any economist. I despise picking on illegals, personally. It's 100% unamerican, if you ask me. We all came from somewhere, and many in similar fashion.

     

    You realize why the pilgrims came here, right? Everyone hated them in England.
    5 Mar 2011, 01:21 AM Reply Like
  • Neal Razi
    , contributor
    Comments (1214) | Send Message
     
    I'm with you. I'd rather have a hard working illegal as a neighbor than a free loading citizen.
    5 Mar 2011, 01:22 AM Reply Like
  • Fueled By Randomness
    , contributor
    Comments (291) | Send Message
     
    Some pundit was saying today that if unemployment is 8% or lower in Nov 2012, Obama will be re-elected. It really was not worth wasting time to find out how he figured this out and it really is not relevant anyway. The media is likely going to pick up this ball and run with it and there will likely be an all-hands-on-deck effort on the part of the usual suspects to hit this number. It will kinda be reminiscent of the PR campaign to boost the Stimu-less when we were told of the thousands of jobs created or saved in non-existent congressional districts. I expect the 8% number will be achieved even if the gummint has to launch unemployed people into orbit to do so.
    4 Mar 2011, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • tunaman4u2
    , contributor
    Comments (2926) | Send Message
     
    8% unemployment = $200 oil... the new utopia?
    4 Mar 2011, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3696) | Send Message
     
    The Chinese better dust off their rickshaws if $200 oil is the case. Indians can ride on their sacred cows.
    4 Mar 2011, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • Tomcat101
    , contributor
    Comments (963) | Send Message
     
    Not a whole lot of hiring going on in North Carolina. Someone's gonna get cancer from all the smoke they are blowing up our asses.
    4 Mar 2011, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • mikeybronx
    , contributor
    Comments (347) | Send Message
     
    Hiring here in NY is definitely picking up for skilled individuals. However, alot of part time employment is the norm and will continue as long as Corporations have to report above estimate numbers to shareholders. Alot of mom and pop shops are fueling the hiring process, sadly wihout benefits. real unemployment......i would think around 15% to 16%.
    4 Mar 2011, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3696) | Send Message
     
    Wait.... I thought unions fought for benefits for American workers. And weekends. And good wages....
    4 Mar 2011, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • Trever99
    , contributor
    Comments (105) | Send Message
     
    What systemic issues have been solved in the USA which makes people believe that the US is in recovery? The two wars are still going on.. What's the deficit going to be this year.. 1.6 trillion.. give or take 200 billionaires? Wait.. financial reform? Ummm .. tax reform?

     

    I'm running out of things to reference.....

     

    Maybe Bernake knows.... he's been pretty accurate in his predictions so far... ;)
    5 Mar 2011, 02:31 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Morgan
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    Oh my....the level of ignorance in SA is reaching new highs....
    To the pitchfork and apocalyptic crowd, the trend is your friend...see how the claims have been dropping constantly in a actuarial time frame.....

     

    Sometimes, I think my intelligence is too much for SA...

     

    PS: Bernanke for President!
    5 Mar 2011, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2198) | Send Message
     
    Agreed claims have been dropping, and there is some jobs improvement. But those dropping completely out of the system and onto programs such as SNAP are far outstripping the jobs creation rate. When the government propping stops, the markets can stand and improve on their own, then Ben can claim victory. POMO is still in full force, housing is still propped by Fannie and Freddie, most loans are still govt backed, and government deficit spending is a massive segment of GDP. When all those cease and the market stands on it's own, then I will be positive...until then, I'm sorry but the system is far from healthy.
    5 Mar 2011, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • 7footMoose
    , contributor
    Comments (2266) | Send Message
     
    You are in good company today Joe, the group seems to like the idea that all is well in Neverland and on the jobs front. Naysayers are being heavily peppered by thumbs down.
    5 Mar 2011, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    Joe. A man after my own heart!

     

    Bernanke for President!
    Would that it were so. The Fed Chairman has some steel in him.
    I am liking Bloomberg a little more however and I hope he runs.

     

    Joe - apparently you and I are the same person - you will be pleased to know that we just flew into SF and are headed to the ballet this evening - the wife used to be a ballet dancer and is a huge afficianado. The former speaker was on our flight and it was nice to see her sitting with us mere mortals - I hope she paid for her own ticket - I would hate to think that I paid for our first class tickets and hers as well.

     

    You will be even more pleased to hear that we recently bought some Muni CEF's - loaded up on them about 3 weeks ago - way too cheap. Also some DO and TOT - at the same time and expanded our position in VPL also a few weeks ago - I love Japan. We sold some stuff to make room for this and raise a little cash we are now waiting for the QE to end and the 10% panic correction by the SA crowd to trip our GTC orders - than it is off to the races once again. Patience.

     

    Expansion is here.

     

    E
    5 Mar 2011, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Morgan
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    Econdoc, good post.....

     

    I think MG is a good guy, but I disagree in his doom views. The economy is growing at a steady sustainable pace, that is creating enormous profits to shareholders.
    5 Mar 2011, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Neal Razi
    , contributor
    Comments (1214) | Send Message
     
    It's amazing how tough and confident Bernanke is. I'd vote for big B for prez.
    5 Mar 2011, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • mikeybronx
    , contributor
    Comments (347) | Send Message
     
    Hi Neal,

     

    What is most amazing is that Ben is a man appointed to this position. He inherited this sack of turd we call an economy that was made possible by these same elected officials who grill him and have filled the sack. And they have the gall to badger him as if he single handedly orchestrated our current economic state. What a sad attempt at deflecting fault.
    6 Mar 2011, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • Trever99
    , contributor
    Comments (105) | Send Message
     
    I don't think that Bernake is the friend of the American public anymore than I think Greenspan was. Both are equally unelectable to office.

     

    Additionally both have advocated policies that are detrimental to the long term success of the USA. I'm not sure I would want to be the guy presiding over policies that were responsible for resulting in "the current generation will be the first ever to have less education and less earnings than the generation before it".

     

    Ironically the people that don't have a problem with this are the same ones who think increasing taxes on those making over $250K is punishment to the middle class while also espousing that 50K a year for teachers is excessive remuneration.

     

    I feel sorry for our children.
    5 Mar 2011, 03:34 PM Reply Like
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