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Don't buy the hype, Gary Shiller says - "stocks are anything but safe." The stock market is...

Don't buy the hype, Gary Shiller says - "stocks are anything but safe." The stock market is rising because Fed policy is making it rise, but the economic recovery is much less than meets the eye. Housing isn't any better, Shiller says, expecting another 20% drop. So is anything worth investing in? Treasury bonds.
Comments (19)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9832) | Send Message
     
    The name is Shilling and he is a perma perma perma bear... and i don't think i added enough permas....
    22 Mar 2011, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13540) | Send Message
     
    He and Meredith Whitney should get married.
    22 Mar 2011, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • sysin3
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    And you're a perma perma perma bull. Pot, meet kettle.

     

    "There is no place in a fanatic's head where reason can enter." -- Napoleon Bonaparte
    22 Mar 2011, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9832) | Send Message
     
    Nappy ended up in exile....
    23 Mar 2011, 06:20 AM Reply Like
  • Wyatt Junker
    , contributor
    Comments (4503) | Send Message
     
    Talking his book. No, not investments. Literally, his book. The one with the telescope on it.
    22 Mar 2011, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • realornot
    , contributor
    Comments (1281) | Send Message
     
    Gary Shiller: His call was quite accurate before. Don't discount his comment.
    FED was pumping up with funny money and now with, EU austerity, earthquake, tsunami, nuclear radiation, middle-east fights and who knows what else is still out there. Bears or no bears, they are real. Have to be a smart bull to watch all traps!
    22 Mar 2011, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9832) | Send Message
     
    Or a scared bear who never gets the honey...
    22 Mar 2011, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13540) | Send Message
     
    Real:

     

    That's the whole point. Shilling (and Whitney) were each accurate one time, each about one item (her, banks; him housing). Now, they have been singing the same repetitive gloom-and-doom tunes nonstop, ever since the original correct calls and major crashes that made them famous. Now, due to fame alone, they're "experts" on muni bonds, the general economy and whatnot.

     

    The only problem is that those who worshipped at their self-flaggelating churches missed a 100% rally in the stock market.
    22 Mar 2011, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • realornot
    , contributor
    Comments (1281) | Send Message
     
    lol... good thing I was not. I follow the rally but now.....????
    22 Mar 2011, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • Poor Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (3531) | Send Message
     
    Schilling was pumping long bonds when rates were 5-6%. He said rates would go down and there were principal gains to be made. But I don't agree with buying bonds at this level and with this dollar depreciation. Disclosure, in high yield, short term and foreign bonds for about 20% of my personal portfolio.
    22 Mar 2011, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13540) | Send Message
     
    Tex:

     

    Treasuries make absolutely no sense unless one is betting we're headed back in short order to a major recession. They're not far removed from their recent all-time low yields, so on what basis would one expect their low-yields, and consequent high relative prices, to present a good risk-return equation? It makes no sense at all. It's a continuing appeal to buying fear, rather than common sense.

     

    It doesn't really matter whether the economy gets cooking or falls into some form of semi-stagflation from currency expansion; neither would be good for Treasuries, in the least. Treasuries could only perform if some new (Euro debt, Middle east and earthquake/tsunamis weren't enough, apparently) disaster would send the entire world rushing to dollars.

     

    In many other threads we're equally being admonished that the dollar is a "loathed" terminally-ill currency. So, the dollar is doomed to inflation hell, but, Treasuries are a safe bet? Yes, someone explain that curious dichotomy, please.
    22 Mar 2011, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Wyatt Junker
    , contributor
    Comments (4503) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. I think I'll take my stand behind Bill Gross on this one.

     

    As far as Shilling, I think the codger needs to check in at the front counter. Its time.
    22 Mar 2011, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    Bill Gross dumped US Treasuries and he is investing real money not just talking. If GS believes all his negative hype then he should be recommending gold, silver, commodities and currencies in Canada, Australia, etc.
    22 Mar 2011, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • tomcat818
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    How many hedge funds with billions on the books returned their clients money recently? Hmmm... I think the smart money has left the building. Those entering the market now are a day late and a dollar short. Gross mis-fired by dumping bonds before oil took off with middle east tesions growing daily so I wouldn't be whistling his tune.
    22 Mar 2011, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    tomcat818

     

    Gross is reinvesting where he sees better risk and return relationships. The US is not the only place for investments.

     

    What Gross is saying and acting on is that the risk/return no longer makes sense. How can anyone in their right mind take the measly returns offered by US Treasury while anticipating that inflation is poised to take off. The capital losses would be horrendous.

     

    What I am saying about Shiller is that his views don't add up. If housing drops another 20% then the US government will own more homes, more banks going insolvent and the deficit will jump dramatically. How can anyone recommend US Treasuries in that scenario?

     

    So let me see...........Bill Gross or Gary Shiller who is only talking so he can shill his book. Sorry, I am going with BG.
    22 Mar 2011, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • pdxinvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Does Mr. Shilling forget who has been proping up treasury prices or is he expecting MENA and natural disasters to take the place of quantitative easing? I hadn't considered flight to quality as a long term investing strategy.
    22 Mar 2011, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • jstratt
    , contributor
    Comments (2480) | Send Message
     
    I have been a bull since March 2009 but in the last month I am focusing on beta and becoming more defensive. After all I am up substantially and the market looks more fairly valued.

     

    I listen to bulls and bears. Gary Shilling is someone I always listen to for uniques and interesting perspectives. He has made money with his strategy as well I note. That said he is bearish and his latest guidance was a list of fears that werent that persuasive to me.
    22 Mar 2011, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • Deepv
    , contributor
    Comments (415) | Send Message
     
    Schiller was right about the housing market, but he has ZERO track record as an investor. Someone like Marc Faber who said that US housing was over valued AND now says that US treasuries are future wall paper seem more credible. How can treasuries make any sense LOGICALLY in a money printing zero interest rate keynsenian end point scenario? If donald trump or someone becomes president, maybe schiller will be proven right but we are in a weak dollar inflationary regime.
    22 Mar 2011, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • tigersam
    , contributor
    Comments (1711) | Send Message
     
    Gary Shiller,

     

    You are a kind of person who shouts every morning there is a fire in the forest. You are right there will be fire in the forest one day but that does not make you expert. You are incorrect another 364 days.

     

    How is your sister Meridith Whitney doing? How about your brother Rick Santelli from CNBC? How is your other brother Mohamand from Pimco? How is your crazy brother Schaffer? Say hi to everybody.

     

    Here is a tip for you on Housing.

     

    In any economic scenario Housing market is last to recover. People buy house when weath building is done. So Stock market goes up first then after 3 to 4 years housing start going up.
    23 Mar 2011, 06:36 AM Reply Like
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