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More on UBS's Apple (AAPL -2.9%) target cut: Analyst Steve Milunovich hasn't changed his FQ1...

More on UBS's Apple (AAPL -2.9%) target cut: Analyst Steve Milunovich hasn't changed his FQ1 iPhone forecast much, but has lowered his estimates for each of the next 3 quarters by 5M. He claims Supply chain checks indicate the iPhone build rate will fall to 25M in the March quarter (his sales estimate for the quarter is still at 40M); that some Chinese sources don't expect the iPhone 5 to do as well as the 4S; and (like others) that the iPad Mini is cannibalizing its bigger peer.  On a more positive note, he thinks China Mobile could start selling the iPhone in a year. (Macquarie)
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Comments (31)
  • Ashraf Eassa
    , contributor
    Comments (9092) | Send Message
    I'm not even remotely bullish on $AAPL, and I think that these analyst attacks are getting silly.
    14 Dec 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • techy46
    , contributor
    Comments (6288) | Send Message
    They have to accelerate the tax selling so it's really low when they back up their trucks in January.
    14 Dec 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • dmarilley
    , contributor
    Comments (614) | Send Message
    It is common knowledge among tech. analysts that cycles will shorten and margins will evaporate rapidly, for anything aapl makes.
    14 Dec 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • jgren
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
    completely agree, pushing price down to see more profit upside post holiday quarter.
    14 Dec 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • mogando
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
    iPad mini is cannibalizing Kindle Fire / Nexus 7 / cheapo netbooks FAR MORE than cannibalizing full-size iPad 4.


    Maybe UBS should come out with articles about how Google is too ashamed of Android tablet sales to release tablet-only activation figures.
    14 Dec 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • pfbsurf
    , contributor
    Comments (142) | Send Message
    3 months straight up, 3 months straight down. "Technically" a disaster... but fundamentally, a pretty ridiculous bargain it seems. i'm trying to be objective here, but this side of the boat is pretty crowded it seems.


    i think a low 600 / hi 500 trading range for 2013 seems likely. there simply has not been an earnings disruption - the one that took NFLX/RIMM etc down is not on the horizon for apple yet. and when the story is back in vogue for whatever reason (exploding tablet market/Apple TV, whatever) the shorts will cover and the funds will add...


    another way to think of it - how comfortable would you be with a very large - hedge fund type - short position w/apple at essentially 8X forward earnings (less cash)? and a conservative low to mid 2013/14 growth rate? 500 give or take rock bottome
    14 Dec 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • bobbobwhite
    , contributor
    Comments (1977) | Send Message
    Waiting to see which maker is the first to combine the smartphone and pad into one, all-purpose mobile unit. iPod function was included in the iPhone so it is a logical extension of that combining process. Separate unit profit cannibalization will surely happen initially, but will that matter 5 years down the road?


    Will Apple do it first? It will be taking a big chance in potential short term lost profits on separate units, but did that ever stop Steve Jobs from acting upon what he saw was the future?
    14 Dec 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Dean Scarpinato
    , contributor
    Comments (372) | Send Message
    just what i need is a 7" phone to carry around
    14 Dec 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • baozebub
    , contributor
    Comments (376) | Send Message
    The Note 3 is going to have a 6.3" display.
    14 Dec 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • techy46
    , contributor
    Comments (6288) | Send Message
    More likely something like the iCube or wSurface that snaps into a 4-10" screen with or w/o keyboard depending on situation. However, that would cannibalize all notebooks, smartphones and tablets replacing them with one device and multiple peripherals.
    14 Dec 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • XRTrader
    , contributor
    Comments (609) | Send Message
    Bobbo - And yet, when the iPhone came out with iPod capabilities, the iPod still kept selling (and still does). The fact is that different consumers want different products. As AAPL broadens it's line (it will) we will have some unit cannibalization (like with the mini) but it will be a net positive.
    14 Dec 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
    , contributor
    Comments (406) | Send Message
    Analysts.Note the first four letters that the term starts with.
    14 Dec 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
    , contributor
    Comments (406) | Send Message
    Remember that this is window dressing time.I believe in Apple.My problem now is that with all of the dumping who will have the courage to buy.Negative sentiment breeds on itself.Remember that analysts would rather be wrong in unison than have the guts to buck the trend.
    14 Dec 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • RycheMykol
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
    EZ, after all these hedgefund managers wipeout the small investors, they will swoop in and buy.
    14 Dec 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • mollytjm
    , contributor
    Comments (918) | Send Message
    Well, i think Apple will pull of a wonderful holiday season and that will put the stock back up again. I've been in this stock a long's quite a roller coaster ride but over all, trends upward and that's the bottom line for me.
    14 Dec 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5774) | Send Message
    Every time one of these "experts" makes a call on Apple, they get their name on SA and other sites.


    If an anlayst makes a call on Apple in the woods and there is nobody there to hear it, do they make a sound?
    14 Dec 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Momintn
    , contributor
    Comments (4283) | Send Message
    Same institution says Buy when I sign onto Fidelity.


    COVERAGE REITERATED: Apple (AAPL) reiterated by UBS. Reiterated rating Buy.
    BRIEFING.COM – 10:33 AM ET 12/14/2012
    14 Dec 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • marcvanmierlo
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
    I bought today and I bought earlier. For today: as long as Apple does not have the agreement in China with 4G in mind, in line with their fundamental thoughts, the market is not going to buy a product which is not ready. I can understand that. Having said that, the Chinese market is big, but the rest of the world is still much bigger and in my view Apple is still the only company selling developing their products in a holistic way. The others are only copycats, scratching the surface, competing on pricing alone. Secondly the analytical facts on fundamentals will prove much stronger than the sentiments.
    14 Dec 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • 100XT
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
    This price action is horrendous. I just bought some more, BUT I am doubting myself. I am doing what feels wrong. Now, that is suppose to be the right thing to do. Maybe, if it holds at this level, all the negatives will be flushed out. I.E. capitulation. That being said, AAPL management NEEDS to do something to stop the bleeding. I think this selling is different than previous sell offs, but I admit, I did not have as much to loose, back then.
    14 Dec 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • stel1
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
    For all the retail investors: no hope to change course until: A) shorts will have to cover; B) big funds start buying again..
    now so much has been written about AAPL but the fact is that they make numero uno products...I am using their iPod for my live performance gigs - that thing (iPod ) is UNBELIEVABLY reliable; has fallen down so many times yet delivers great organization and perfornce with fidelity gig after gig; I am also a teacher and I love the macs at work...waiting to see most of my students coming in with mini ipads over the next years; my supervisor comes with an iPad to check my teaching.I serve the fifth largest district in the States (Clark County in Nevada); at home: my daughter sleeps with her iPad its the next thing she wears after her clothes; at my desk I still have a lousy PC so I suffer crashes after crashes; viruses after viruses; have to antivirus programs etc; our next cellphone is going to be an iPhone for sure ...thats whats going in my side of the world; and no matter what they say AAPL products are the best... unfortunately the stock price is subject to the casino rules of Wall Street boys and girls......
    14 Dec 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • TZ2011
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    Compared to its rivals, Apple still has the best software/app platform, best assortment of products, cheapest valuation, and the largest hoard of cash. It may have lost its stock sizzle, due to the recent foibles and competition catching up, but Apple remains fundamentally solid as a fully integrated product/software/service company and a great potential value and growth play going into 2013. Hang tough.
    14 Dec 2012, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
    A little philosophical view for consideration:


    Steve Jobs was Apple. Apple wasn't a company; it was a state of mind, created by a once-in-a-generation Pied Piper, a cultural deity, if you will. Now, the communicatons-world "Jim Jones" is dead, the Kool-Aid machine is empty, and the acolytes are rudderless.


    Apple has fallen from its ethereal position in the skies and back to Earth, as a mere vendor of electronic products, run by mortals, who now engage is the messy pursuits of corporate bureacrats, e.g., internal bickerings, personnel firings, shake-ups, etc., all in search of the illusive intangible that was effortlessly provided by Jobs, but is wholly beyond the reach of the earthbound custodians he left behind. Vision, innovation and evangelical image creation have now been supplanted by lawsuits, as a business strategy. Now, they are left to deal with mundane issues, like prices, margins, suppliers, and aggressive competitors, none of which are going to be made to disappear with a 1984-like hammer throw.


    Welcome to the real world.
    14 Dec 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (4458) | Send Message
    Great. Except it was the Visionary that initiated "lawsuits as a business strategy". And it is the new CEO that will likely steer the company away from this course and toward cross licensing, as was shown with HTC.


    Your narrative gets its poetry at the expense of accuracy. The real world is indeed complicated.
    14 Dec 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message


    I realize that Jobs ranted about lawsuits and suing everybody into the ground, but that's not how he built his "church." Now, there's no "aura" to Apple, and it must compete on a much more down-to-Earth mundane basis, and there's no economic premium afforded to that.
    14 Dec 2012, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (4458) | Send Message
    There certainly seems to be no stock premium, but Apple is charging the same as it ever was for its iPhone and is poised to sell more than ever before. I get that some of the Jobs magic is gone, but the products are still selling wildly and at the same premium.


    I'm not sure it's as easy as saying, "Jobs is gone."
    14 Dec 2012, 06:43 PM Reply Like
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
    I don't know where you live, but I have yet to be able to actually put my hands on an IPad Mini...I just want to hold one..not actually purchase it. I am not sure when I will get to do that least not before Christmas. I love these products..upgrading whenever I can and passing my older devices to family members, preferably non-believers..The magic is far from over.....
    15 Dec 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • baozebub
    , contributor
    Comments (376) | Send Message
    Brasil, that's a strategy a lot of people have. Apple products can generally be given or sold to family members or friends, allowing the Apple user to play with the latest and greatest.
    16 Dec 2012, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Applocrat
    , contributor
    Comments (972) | Send Message
    The genius of Jobs lay in creating superb environments for creativity to flourish. He was more Lorenzo de Medici than Michelangelo- a curator or patron of creativity, albeit a singularly focused and demanding one.


    This is why Jobs was able to foster creative cultures in two very different businesses in very different fields. He "invented" the iPhone no more than he single handedly wrote and directed, and starred in Finding Nemo.


    Also, Jobs was the one who at least initially panned the idea of a 7 inch tablet. The one product that even the FUD machine admits is selling well, to Apple's infinite detriment. I am fairly certain that every time a mim is sold apples angelic margins are supposed to lose a few feathers. So, Apple's new "hit" was post Jobs chronologically and perhaps philosophically, Apple's "struggling" iPhone was Jobs last, greatest contribution according to many. So the current swoon, if it is to be believed, (which seems doubtful) would be a pretty unforgiving referendum on Jobs performance and legacy.
    17 Dec 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message


    Regarding the 7" iPad, I am always reminded of sage advice I heard very early in my business education and career:


    "If you don't cannablize your own products, somebody else will."
    17 Dec 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
    , contributor
    Comments (959) | Send Message
    U hum - well I sorta get your drift. Steve created a culture and mindset.
    Eastern philosophy meets Bauhaus meets capitalism BUT for Steve the money was just a means to a creative end AND the accumulation of money would Allow Apple the freedom to never ever have to go to the short sighted money men again. This CULTURE definitely still lives and is inculcated at Apple and Apple people are still in love with the creative process,which sets Apple apart from other companies.
    Also I have to bring you down to eart, Steve was mortal - otherwise how did his material body die - he was not a god and got it wrong on several occasions. The thing is he had some great people around him at the right time - Jonathan Ive on the design side created all the great i PRODUCTS. Oh, and he is still busily working on new stuff!!
    23 Jan 2013, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (9388) | Send Message
    It's not just China that doesn't expect to sell as many iPhones, count Russia as well...


    OAO Mobile TeleSystems (MBT), Russia’s biggest mobile-phone operator, won’t offer the newest version of Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s iPhone for the first time since the handset went on sale in the country in 2008.


    “We don’t have a contract with Apple currently,” said Valeria Kuzmenko, a spokeswoman for MTS, one of the two main iPhone distributors in Russia. The previous contract expired in October and the company won’t offer Apple’s iPhone 5 when the device goes on sale in Russia on Dec. 14. Kuzmenko declined to elaborate, citing a confidentiality agreement. Apple spokeswoman Irina Efremova said she couldn’t comment immediately.

    14 Dec 2012, 07:42 PM Reply Like
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