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While other firms (I, II) are lowering their iPhone and regular iPad forecasts, NPD claims Apple...

While other firms (I, II) are lowering their iPhone and regular iPad forecasts, NPD claims Apple (AAPL -3.7%) has more than doubled its iPad Mini display panel orders to 12M+ (presumably to AUO and LPL) to meet strong demand. Moreover, NPD thinks the Mini could account for half of 2013 iPad shipments, which it pegs at 100M+. The difference between the Mini's size (0.68 lbs. and 0.28" thick) and the 4th-gen iPad's (1.44 lbs. and 0.37") is hard to ignore here. Separately, Digitimes reports Apple is working on a second-gen Mini that's lighter still, and will sport a better display.
Comments (39)
  • donklos
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    BUY! This is good news!
    14 Dec 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Atkins
    , contributor
    Comments (1037) | Send Message
     
    NO! This is a sign to sell everything ever having to do with Apple! Canibalization, fiscal cliff, dividend taxation, empty Apple stores in China, a huge snowstorm (i.e., sign of the Apocalypse for Apple) in Beijing. I think it's time to throw out the component stocks, and Google should be discarded, too, because it is exposed to Apple.

     

    I just had an idea: I'm going to write an SA article on my new theory of Apple, and I hope it will be entitled, "Snowstorm Signals Apocalypse for Apple." I'll focus on events of nature that predict Apple price declines and the destruction of the Apple cloud. The Bulls will appear in the article as Mr. Heat Miser. The Bears will appear in the article as Mr. Snow Miser. I'm not sure who will appear as Mother Nature. Perhaps Helen Mirren or Charlize Theron.

     

    I just spent $100 on iTunes gift cards for relatives who wanted them. I really should warn my relatives that they should use the cards immediately because of the coming Apocalypse.

     

    Bah Humbug.
    14 Dec 2012, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4618) | Send Message
     
    if 6 were a 9 I don't mind.....
    16 Dec 2012, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • JUDOKA
    , contributor
    Comments (406) | Send Message
     
    Let's see if AAPL gets knocked on CNBC tonight.I've said in other commentary that Maria Bartaromo dissing the company will signal the bottom.
    14 Dec 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Atkins
    , contributor
    Comments (1037) | Send Message
     
    Does anyone with any sense still listen to her? Like listening to Cramer, except that he's much more entertaining.
    14 Dec 2012, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Efrain Rojas
    , contributor
    Comments (197) | Send Message
     
    100 million ipads in 2013? wow. The entire US population is 300m. The PC as we know it dead, dead, dead.
    14 Dec 2012, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Ashraf Eassa
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    Haha, I bet you wrote that on a PC.
    15 Dec 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • Dean Scarpinato
    , contributor
    Comments (372) | Send Message
     
    If by PC you mean iMac then yes
    15 Dec 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Ashraf Eassa
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    iMac is a PC...
    16 Dec 2012, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • Ed's perspective
    , contributor
    Comments (261) | Send Message
     
    When the tax loss sellers and hedge fund shorts figure out the cash accumulation numbers apple is going to put up in the next couple /consecutive quarters they are going to be painfully sorry they are not long.
    14 Dec 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (8774) | Send Message
     
    So iPad margins are going to shrink further?
    14 Dec 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Dean Scarpinato
    , contributor
    Comments (372) | Send Message
     
    If APPL grows at 0% from now to infinity it is underpriced.
    15 Dec 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • dividend_growth
    , contributor
    Comments (2879) | Send Message
     
    The margin on iPad mini is significantly higher than what the company predicted in its earning release.

     

    I suspect the margin on mini is also higher than retina iPads.
    15 Dec 2012, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (8774) | Send Message
     
    In percentage terms or absolute terms?
    15 Dec 2012, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • SurfRat3
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
     
    If I remember correctly, the iPad mini wasn't intended to make a huge profit in the first place. Apple developed and marketed the mini in order to establish a "beachhead" so their competition wouldn't garner the whole market for small pads. If Apple really is doubling their orders for mini display panels, then that's a good thing.
    14 Dec 2012, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (8774) | Send Message
     
    Deja vu. Dell saying it will never get into the sub $1,000 PC market that eMachines brought about. We all know how that story went.
    15 Dec 2012, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • JampersK
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Walmart is selling iphone for a reduced price which is going to be good for Apple.
    15 Dec 2012, 03:32 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (8774) | Send Message
     
    How is reduced price good?
    15 Dec 2012, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • Dean Scarpinato
    , contributor
    Comments (372) | Send Message
     
    Its a loss leader. Walmart is taking the hit to get people in the store
    16 Dec 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS-2.0
    , contributor
    Comments (525) | Send Message
     
    Please explain how margin compession & discounts drive earnings growth.

     

    I would love to hear it.

     

    People don't discount things in which demand exceeds supply.

     

    http://bit.ly/U0VWN7

     

    High end, high price, high margin products, discounted at WMT

     

    LOL
    17 Dec 2012, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4618) | Send Message
     
    It doesn't even seem to be a loss leader they are sold out and none in warehouses....
    17 Dec 2012, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS-2.0
    , contributor
    Comments (525) | Send Message
     
    AAPL was soooo 2012. Time to move on.
    15 Dec 2012, 04:04 AM Reply Like
  • ItsAllGreek
    , contributor
    Comments (547) | Send Message
     
    So why are you still here commenting? SMH.
    15 Dec 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Somporn Suksi
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
     
    Move on to what? Lots of talk, no ideas. Give me a stock, an earnings projection, a multiple, a price target and a time frame. If you can't do this, you're just talking....
    16 Dec 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • SurfRat3
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
     
    I agree...move on to what? Really? Take the emotion out of the equation and just look at the hard facts and fundamentalsof Apple stock. Whether you luv it or hate it, AAPL is the market....
    16 Dec 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • stevee32
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    What is happening to apple is a pure disgrase this is the number one company in the world and the only real negatives are pure garbage but every little phony negative inuendo or rumor is destroying this stock,if this is not the most minipulated stock in historyi will kiss the a--es of these morons who are trying to destroy this stock, this is simply amazing that what is happening to apple in the last 8-9 weeks and more amazing that the department of justice is doing nothing about this fraud to the invstors of this company down 200 points in 8 weeks for no real reason other then greed, what a shame. i will stick with my shares of apple and go down with the ship is need be but i will be damned if i will be defrauded out of my money by a bunch of greedy thieves and crooks who are trying to destroy the small investors.
    15 Dec 2012, 04:19 AM Reply Like
  • Dean Scarpinato
    , contributor
    Comments (372) | Send Message
     
    If the ship goes down so do all my creditors.
    16 Dec 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4618) | Send Message
     
    I am not giving away my shares either ....prepare for the rubber band effect.....Australia maps one day glitch, snowstorm egg throwing , one person in line people getting lost walking to a farmers market... gimme a break......I am going to Walmart Monday in the afternoon after work to buy my new iphone and tablet if there are any left.....
    15 Dec 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • praveenkmohan
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    Remember, when common investor believes its time to drop in the towel and act, the stock will skyrocket back to around $600. I believe we are near the bottom of the range and capitulate anytime, till at least the earnings in January. Market always prove common man wrong or late to party. If you own it, time to double than bail.
    15 Dec 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Ed's perspective
    , contributor
    Comments (261) | Send Message
     
    MACRO . . . . .

     

    detail your shrink for me.

     

    if it drives traffic to the store, doesn't it also seem that a realtionship / customer has been created? What's the margin on apps or tunes? What if the customer likes the experience and buys .... more. Speakers, headphones, who knows what.

     

    right now i walk thru a mall at Xmas and a couple of people outside the starbux have ipads going while they sit and drink coffee. They're even over 50. I suggest to you in the few years as you cruise by the starbux the ipad / mini will proliferate. SALESPEOPLE will carry them, and they will become a standard to EXIST. I don't recall the hockey stick graph of computer acceptance but this is going to make that look tame and apple has a way to make money at it while others are groveling.
    15 Dec 2012, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (8774) | Send Message
     
    I have no issues with unit sale growth. That will be there for sure. My concern is bout margin. I always remember that salesman who used to lose money on every sale but somehow made it up in volume. Nothing good can come from moving down the margin ladder. That's a race to the bottom. Apple needs to have a new idea which is hip, edgy, and with lots and lots of margin.
    15 Dec 2012, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • sometimes
    , contributor
    Comments (202) | Send Message
     
    Why waste time talking about margin in the absence of its natural partner: sales growth? The ultimate objective, surely, is profit. So the real question is, "Will (possibly) shrinking margins be compensated for by a commensurately greater growth in sales?"

     

    There are strategic concerns as well, as noted by Ed's P & SurfRat, which ultimately boil down to defending future avenues to further profitability.

     

    I put my money on Apple earning more money in 2013 than in 2012. Ask yourself if you're comfortable with taking the opposite side of that.

     

    As a side note, this sharp share price drop is great news for Apple. Think of the additional mileage their share buy back program is getting due to this extraordinarily fortuitous and undeserved drop!

     

    Let the good times roll.
    15 Dec 2012, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (8774) | Send Message
     
    Trouble is, I have heard this all before. Remember a company called DELL? I have to write an article explaining the problem with Apple. Stay tuned.
    15 Dec 2012, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • harryjack
    , contributor
    Comments (476) | Send Message
     
    We will continue to hear inuindos on AAPL until after the first of the year and maybe even through earnings. Anyone who has knows product introduction knowledge knows profuts soar as they get ramped up. Tim Cook said as much - doesn't mean margins will continue to fall, but the opposite. Supply chain is caught up so expedite costs will decline. I say that because AAPL pressed on into China - we do not have the preorder numbers yet.. Buy the stock or calls and put them in the drawer and look again in March.
    16 Dec 2012, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • rperson
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Doesn't matter. Good news goes relatively unreported. What good news does get out only drives the stock down. If someone can explain this to me I would be sincerely appreciate it. Nothing makes sense any more about Apple. Long Apple, btw.
    16 Dec 2012, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • Mike567
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    When do we get back in Aapl
    16 Dec 2012, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • Ed's perspective
    , contributor
    Comments (261) | Send Message
     
    RE: Trouble is, I have heard this all before. Remember a company called DELL? I have to write an article explaining the problem with Apple.

     

    I hear SOME of it .... but would suggest it is a long way from commoditization. The apps store / closed system is a two edge sword. But EVERY time they create a new customer they can ring the bell at a premium that keeps on giving. I was bearish on AOL years before its demise for some of the same reasons you dislike Apple. The difference I see is Apple has a reason to keep you in the paying cycle much longer. < it was always my view AOL should have aggregated their customer numbers and driven DISCOUNTS toward NYT and WSJ, stores, ... hell they could have BEEN groupon. EPIC FAIL. >
    17 Dec 2012, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (8774) | Send Message
     
    I don't dislike Apple at all. I think their main edge is innovation. The company that dreamed up the iPod and then the iPhone deserves kudos. What did Dell dream up? Nothing! Just a superior supply chain.

     

    While people focus on Apple for the cash flow, I focus on Apple for the innovation. But lately they have not been innovating. They have been tinkering and cheapening products like the iPad mini.

     

    That's what worries me. They need a new killer product and then I will become bullish again. Till then, earnings from cash cows don't impress me.
    17 Dec 2012, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Fu
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    iPad mini gross margins are still 44% (price $329 vs. component costs $198). iPad 2 gross margin is 48%, so only a slight decrease in margins, but hopefully more market share from iPad mini lower price point: http://bit.ly/SPWp4M
    17 Dec 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
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