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Middle East regime change is not good for oil supplies, says Jeff Rubin. Iranian oil production...

Middle East regime change is not good for oil supplies, says Jeff Rubin. Iranian oil production has never come close to recovering its pre-Shah levels. Same thing in Iraq. Those hoping that Gaddafi's fall will bring new investment and a surge in Libyan production are likely to be disappointed.
Comments (22)
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
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    So, no democracy for the mid-east, just sell us your oil!
    31 Mar 2011, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • davidingeorgia
    , contributor
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    I think what you're going to get with all the regime change stuff is a different flavor of tyranny, with a lot of dead folks and higher oil prices in the getting of it.

     

    If you actually ended up in any of these places with something at least close to democracy, it'd be a good thing, but what you'll likely get is "one man, one vote, one time" and then a new set of tyrants in place for as long as they're brutal enough to hang onto power.
    31 Mar 2011, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
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    Oh, I agree, democracy is a long birthing process. But, we should at least let them try and achieve democracy rather than prop up their torturers.
    31 Mar 2011, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • davidingeorgia
    , contributor
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    I'd agree with that to a point. For instance, I wouldn't ever claim the last Shah of Iran was a nice guy or anything close to it, but what followed him is far worse (just look at how women were treated in the Shah's Iran compared to today as one example). I say that to say that if we are going to withdraw support from a "friendly" dictator, we need to be a lot more picky about who we help take power after he's gone - if we're going to support anyone at all.

     

    It would also be nice if various American administrations would get it through their heads that just having an election - even one that is relatively fair and open - does not a democracy make. It requires all sorts of small 'd' democratic and classical liberal institutions - and attitudes - to make function. But then, that sort of thing is hard to do and slow, so they shoot for the easy (relatively) "let's have an election and declare victory" route. The current administration seems to be just as clueless about this as the Bushies were. I'll confess to being fairly optimistic about democracy in Middle East in the early 2000's, but I am optimistic no more.
    31 Mar 2011, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • radicall
    , contributor
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    Iran HAD democracy before we put the Shah there, before US and UK got rid of their democratically elected government. I don't think our government wants there to be democracy in the middle east - we want to protect our "core interests".

     

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
    31 Mar 2011, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Duude
    , contributor
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    I think the disconnect here is that oil flows can necessarily improve with a government policy change. This may be more about a deficit of low-hanging fruit. Its not that there aren't billions of barrels still untapped but that its more expensive to tap. Being its more expensive to tap and middle eastern countries are not beyond kicking out foreign drillers or taxing the crap out of them after new streams of oil come on line, risk and return have to support new investment. This bogs down new production until oil rises enough to compensate for the added risk.
    31 Mar 2011, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • Tom B
    , contributor
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    I think not equal regime changes will prove to be equal. Iran went to a regime hostile to the west (and to their own citizens). This may not be the case in, say, Libya, where we are helping them at the oppositions own request, in cooperation with the Arab league.

     

    In Iraq, there were many problems. There was the insurgency. There was also Bush's inability to control the agenda. The Iraqis were CUTTING THEIR OWN DEALS. After all the money we sank in that country, WE should have been cutting the deals.
    31 Mar 2011, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • lafano
    , contributor
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    This wouldn't be an issue if we began drilling again. But who cares, we are investing $2b of our money into have Petrobras to drill for us...lol...and what a coincidence, the evil one and puppet master G Soros has a very large holding in Petrobras...and besides, lets also support the marxist state of Brazil and disregard jobs in America...lol.
    31 Mar 2011, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
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    Since we have only 2% of the world's reserves and use 20% of the oil, more drilling will only help a very little.
    31 Mar 2011, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Duude
    , contributor
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    Actually we have 3.3%, but then Brazil only has 1.9% of the world's reserves.
    Additionally, our reserve estimate totally ignores the fact we've not been looking off either the East or West coast since the 1970's
    31 Mar 2011, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • lafano
    , contributor
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    This sounds like the same rhetoric we've been hearing, especially since this administration has taken office. It appears that you are fine with continuing to buy our oil from our enemies, including Venezuela. Im for all using all sources of energy but against helping countries (and people like Soros) who simply hate us and our way of life.
    31 Mar 2011, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
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    No matter, we drink a lot more than we could ever brew. But this has little to do with the discussion. People have a right to rise against their tyrants whether or not it disrupts another country's way of cushy life. Granted, revolutions are often betrayed, but that doesn't mean one can't at least try.
    31 Mar 2011, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
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    I think you misunderstand me. I totally agree with you, someone should put a bullet through Chavez' head. If they did, and our oil supply was disrupted, better for the Venezuelan people in the long run and some pain for us in the short run. If all these uprising translate to democracies down the road, that would be a very good thing. Very few revolutions involve no pain.
    1 Apr 2011, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • radicall
    , contributor
    Comments (534) | Send Message
     
    Oil is a global market. We can buy oil from Canada and china buys from Venezuela.. doesn't matter. If we didn't import oil, the Canadian oil could have gone to China - so Venezuela and Iran would sell oil no matter what, as long as there is global demand.

     

    I am looking forward to natural gas based cars with better capacity, lower weight and a better distribution system for CNG. Most current CNG cars can hold 8 gallon equivalent of gas - which gives a pretty bad range, and you can get fuel only in 2-3 places in a 100 mile radius (at over 100% premium to cost at home). Might as well drive a Chevy Volt at this time (not cost effective for first 7 years, even with subsidies). But that is not a government decision - it is up to markets and consumers, and apparently consumers seem to prefer driving gasoline cars at this time.

     

    www.sandyblogs.com/tec...
    1 Apr 2011, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (3986) | Send Message
     
    My understanding is that current Iraq production is better than ever at something like 2.2m where it was a lot lower under Saddam and prior to him maxed at something like 2m? Can't remember where I read that and lazy to look it up -
    31 Mar 2011, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Tom B
    , contributor
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    And how much of that oil profit is coming to the US-- to repay all those war deficits?
    31 Mar 2011, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (3986) | Send Message
     
    Well depends on how you consider that; my understanding is there are tens of billions of Iraqi petrodollars in US banks. I'd guess US banks pay interest on it but at least it keeps em capitalized...
    31 Mar 2011, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Tom B
    , contributor
    Comments (3624) | Send Message
     
    Not exactly replenishing our national debt.If we went after corporate welfare instead of trying to nickel and dime NPR and unemployment benefits, we would'nt be so much in the red.
    31 Mar 2011, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3304) | Send Message
     
    Right, GE gets a rebate from the IRS without paying any taxes? I mean, we are only given a $3000 limit for losses beyond any gain.
    1 Apr 2011, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • davidingeorgia
    , contributor
    Comments (2713) | Send Message
     
    Good grief. If this is actually true (I have no idea and this is a New Yorker reporter on CNN so skepticism is called for), then our involvement in Libya looks even dumber/less thought through than it does already. You're not going to overthrow anyone with under 1,000 badly trained, poorly armed fighters, even with western warplanes flying air cover for you. I hope this isn't why 2200 Marines are on the way from North Carolina to the Med.

     

    cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.../
    31 Mar 2011, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • davidingeorgia
    , contributor
    Comments (2713) | Send Message
     
    And if you thought the Libya situation was as confused at it could get, think again!

     

    www.nytimes.com/2011/0...
    1 Apr 2011, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • davidingeorgia
    , contributor
    Comments (2713) | Send Message
     
    And this, which I think they refer to as "smart diplomacy" in the White House these days.

     

    www.politico.com/news/...
    1 Apr 2011, 09:19 AM Reply Like
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