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JPMorgan's Mark Moskowitz tries to put a positive spin on reports of iPhone order cuts (I, II),...

JPMorgan's Mark Moskowitz tries to put a positive spin on reports of iPhone order cuts (I, II), arguing they're due to improving production yields and suggest Apple's (AAPL -0.7%) gross margin could rebound to 40% - Apple guided for an FQ1 gross margin of 36% in October. However, Moskowitz does admit "there are indications the supply chain has seen 20% order cuts related to iPhone 5." He respectively sees 48M and 45M iPhone sales for FQ1 and FQ2. (yesterday)
Comments (8)
  • rickraphael
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    I think all of these analysts are way short on their iPhone sales estimates this quarter. I'm estimating 60 million iPhone 5's sold in FQ 1. A 20% cutback would translate to 48 million in FQ 2. And I think that's conservative given they sold a total of 72 million iPhone 4S's in Q1 and Q2 last year.

     

    I also believe Apple will introduce the 5S in early spring 2013 which would lead to a slow down in sales prior to its release.
    19 Dec 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • tom434
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    60 million iphones in Q1 2013 vs. 37 million in Q1 2012? No. Data from Asia indicates for an increase of about 10-20%. 48 million is an absolutely realistic number...
    19 Dec 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • rickraphael
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    Last year at this time I recall analysts were hard pressed to see iPhone 4S sales above 23 million. They actually sold twice as many as the iPhone 4 the previous year, 37.5 million in FQ 1 and 35 million in FQ2. So yes, 60% higher sales for FQ1 is not unrealistic. BTW, Asymco also suggest a 60% boost across the iOS line this quarter. I think Dediu has a better handle on Apple's business plan than Asian sources.
    19 Dec 2012, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • Gregg Thurman
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    It doesn't matter how many iPhone 5s Apple sells, and this is the point the 500 words on demand "analysts" miss. Apple doesn't just sell iPhone5s. Apple also sells the iPhone 4S and the iPhone 4, both of which are superior (via OS upgrades not possible on competing devices) to anything thing else on the market.

     

    As well as the iPhone 5 does this quarter, the iPhone 4S and iPhone 4 are, going to outsell just about everybody except Samsung.
    19 Dec 2012, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • GULOSO
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    What's about Nokia?
    19 Dec 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • jswieter
    , contributor
    Comments (169) | Send Message
     
    what do you mean and who cares?
    19 Dec 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • what do I know
    , contributor
    Comments (1049) | Send Message
     
    Are these Analysts' reports do any influence on the Stock's evaluation? I hardly remember any Analysts' report that reports any bad thing about Apple. And look what happened to the stock- does it show any lack of "poor performance" of Apple.
    19 Dec 2012, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • CWGS
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    I don't think those analysts are trustworthy for what they said. Last year 4S's 37M units broke all their glasses, none of their "source" came close, and they didn't even have any clue how Apple did 37M, while their source showed only 25-28M. Instead, I am wondering their intention behind. We got shameless copycat from Korea (yes I mean Samsung), also shameless analysts thought we forgot all their shameful history.
    19 Dec 2012, 08:12 PM Reply Like
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