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More on Housing Starts: Up 25% Y/Y, we're just getting started, writes Bill McBride, noting this...

More on Housing Starts: Up 25% Y/Y, we're just getting started, writes Bill McBride, noting this year's total of about 770K is less than half the average from 1959-2000. Last time McBride checked, residential investment and housing starts are the best leading indicators for the economy, and their improvement suggests no recession for the next couple of years.
Comments (8)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9478) | Send Message
     
    The Housing Starts to Total Nonfarm payroll employment ratio is now
    .64%...the average for the 1990's was 1.17%... the low for the 1990's was January 1991 at .73%...The 30 year mortgage rate in
    January 1991 was 9.64%...today's 30 year mortgage is 3.35%

     

    Historically housing starts is a great leading indicator but its lead time can be very long....and peak before the stock market does...
    19 Dec 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • sheeple2012
    , contributor
    Comments (203) | Send Message
     
    yes - housing will lead us out of this recession for sure! I'm headed to Home Depot right now...
    19 Dec 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1829) | Send Message
     
    sheeple, you needed to add '/sarc'. There are actually people on here who will think you're serious.

     

    D
    19 Dec 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9478) | Send Message
     
    I hear his cogent commentary... "/sarc"
    19 Dec 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    Buy gold.
    19 Dec 2012, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (2550) | Send Message
     
    The year + long moratorium on foreclosures will not last, both properties already being held up in the foreclosure pipeline and those the banks are still holding in their portfolios. Realtytrac.com does not believe the bottom in housing was/is set yet because those properties just mentioned will hit the market and when they do they will drive prices downward leaving all the people who bought homes over the last year underwater also
    19 Dec 2012, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • User 353732
    , contributor
    Comments (4829) | Send Message
     
    Statistical noise and seasonality cannot disguise the truth that housing is in a generation long depression in 90% of zip codes.
    The home ownership rate keeps falling and is likely to go below 60% since renting in terms of total cost and risk is more compelling than owning in most parts of the country.
    20 Dec 2012, 05:36 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9478) | Send Message
     
    "renting in terms of total cost and risk is more compelling than owning in most parts of the country."

     

    numbers please....
    20 Dec 2012, 06:24 AM Reply Like
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