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Nokia (NOK) roundup: 1) UBS has raised its estimates and ASP and margin forecasts on encouraging...

Nokia (NOK) roundup: 1) UBS has raised its estimates and ASP and margin forecasts on encouraging signs about Lumia demand, but is maintaining a Neutral. The firm expects 4M Lumia shipments in Q4, and 20M in 2013. 2) Amidst reports of supply issues, China's Sohu provides a (somewhat questionable) report that Lumia 920 production only amounts to 20K units/day. Meanwhile, a U.K. retailer claims the Lumia 620 will be ready to ship by the end of January. (earlier)
Comments (22)
  • If Nokia reports 80¢ per share in earnings next quarter then I'll believe that the company has turned the corner.


    No more me the results!
    20 Dec 2012, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • DVL, here you wait for 80¢ per share and in another post you are waiting for 50 million lumias sold ... All the while we NOK longs are making money.


    PS. Keep an eye on the China Mobile story ;-)
    20 Dec 2012, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • Charging pads ( fat boy pillow ), witch usually run 80-90$ are on sale at Verizon for 60. I have to think that this is a high margin item.
    I also think Nokia has been selling alot of these types of things to go with the wireless charged phones Nokia has. So the average sales estimated for Nokias smartphone division this quarter is about 5 million. If they sell 10 million accessories at lets say 30$ profit that an extra 300 million of revenue that most people aren't considering. That equates to roughly .08 cents a share all by it self. So what did Nokia report as a loss this last quarter ( -.07€ ). I know I'm not considering every factor I should but it's still an interesting thought.


    Long Nokia


    P.S. Luke, thanks for the compliment on the other post. U_U
    20 Dec 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Luke: Making money and keeping money are two different things. I'd bet less than 10% of the Nokia longs posting here and patting themselves on the back are locking in their gains.


    Even fewer are aware of what happens to momo stocks with poor fundamentals once the rug is pulled from them.


    I suspect that the hard lesson of fundamental metrics and their relationship to LONG LASTING gains will be quite the educational experience for you and your friends.


    Good luck and try not to let the Gambler's Curse hurt your stock account to much.
    20 Dec 2012, 04:57 AM Reply Like
  • @ DeepValueLover.
    All divisions within Nokia are showing strong and fundamental signs of a turnaround. Investing in Nokia when they actually present $ 0.8 per share would be unwise, since the shareprice by then would be above $ 10 already.


    As usual you are just trying to generate negative sentiment with general statements without any facts concerning Nokia. I suggest you start pissing on some other shares, maybe Apple. There are many arguments why Apple never will succeed in generating the same, let stand more, profit as they did in 2012.
    20 Dec 2012, 06:35 AM Reply Like
  • mr wonder:


    If you are confident in Nokia then you won't mind what anybody says about the stock since it shouldn't matter.


    If Nokia earned ~70¢ to 80¢ per share then that would show a rock solid improvement in the earnings power of the company. At that point Nokia would be a company worth true investment as opposed to what it is now which is a long shot lottery ticket. The few people here at SA who first bought Nokia below $2.50 or so should be very happy. Locking in gains here would be a very bright idea. Many, many people here (based on 2010 and 2011 comment history) are still very underwater on this stock.


    I have nothing against gambling. I just smh when I read these comments from people who think that Nokia has suddenly become a true competitor to Apple and Samsung in the smartphone space. The actual numbers (not future best case scenario estimates) simply don't support the current price.


    On January 24, 2013 Nokia will report a quarterly LOSS of ~€0.04 according to a consensus of 48 (!) analysts.


    But yeah, yeah I know...they are all wrong.


    Reality supports my view of Nokia.
    20 Dec 2012, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • @ DVL


    Most of the gains are gone once you start investing in a company after it shows great earnings. Besides, great results are by no means a guarantee the company is going to show good earnings in the future. An investor needs to look at much more factors.


    I greatly appreciate critical comments, as long as it holds any reasoning, facts or reasoning.
    You just piss on Nokia without any facts concerning Nokia, most probably because you are/ were short on Nokia and los(t)(e) money as we speak.


    Nevertheless reading your comments is tiresome, that is why I take some effort to let you know.


    PS. Even - € 0.04 would proof Nokia is on it way up, since Q3 showed a - € 0.07. Lets see if Apple outperforms Q3.
    20 Dec 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • mr wonder:


    You write:


    "Most of the gains are gone once you start investing in a company after it shows great earnings."


    Do you really believe this?


    IBM turned around in the mid 90s.


    Has that been a poor investment since then?


    How about Apple since '04?


    You can't make great returns once a company starts showing great earnings?


    Was that a joke? Please tell me that was a joke!
    21 Dec 2012, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • Aw' a blast from the past DVL how's the anti NOK crusade going ?? lol. NOK seems to be going the way of the gamblers at present . I am happy at present as the stock has risen from $1.70 - $4 + over 100% gain :-). And as the company is gaining under such 'terribly mismanaged bad management DVL :-/. but ha ho we all have an opinion. happy investing :-)
    20 Dec 2012, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • godalmightee13: And how are you hedging your "investment" in Nokia?
    21 Dec 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • Investing and gambling aren't the same thing. When Nokia pulls back hard after reporting another loss next month I doubt you and others will comment. ...and still no one can produce evidence that Nokia is a profitable company. So that means I am right about Nokia. Let's see how high Nokia goes while losing boatloads of cash. Good luck, unhedged longs! ;)


    Nokia investors always claim they first bought at the bottom!
    21 Dec 2012, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • DVL, a wise tip, sell your Apple shares and buy some of that NOK. Apple trending down, NOK trending up, doesn't take a genius to see where things are heading. By the way, you been on vacation or something? Haven't seen you on here for a while, you and that Westkite fella have been missing in action lately.
    20 Dec 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • NIKKG:


    You guys have to make up your minds:


    Do you want me to go away (a strange desire since my writings on Nokia have no effect on the stock price) or do you weep when I don't post?


    Anyway, why would I sell a cash producing profits geyser like Apple to buy a money losing smartphone also-ran like Nokia? Oh yeah I know the answer...recent stock price movements.


    Not a very intelligent way to invest but a fun way to gamble I suppose.


    Here is a REAL wise tip:


    Only brag about Nokia when it starts stealing share from Apple and Samsung (or even just turns a profit of at least 1¢).
    20 Dec 2012, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • I'm always curious why someone who obviously thinks Nokia is pond scum takes time to comment on events surrounding that stock.


    Are we supposed to believe that you are a Good Samaritan, trying to protect us from financial ruin?


    If you don't like Nokia and think they are destined for the trashpile of history, just go away and find something more productive to do with your time.


    Let the rest of us evaluate the management actions of Nokia and the products they create more objectively, rather than try to make us believe that if Nokia was troubled in the past, nothing they ever do in the future will meet with success. Some of us may get a little exuberant about Nokia's prospects, but we DO have some recent events and unfolding possibilities, so you'll have to excuse us if we don't subscribe to your doomsday scenario.
    20 Dec 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • You're driving looking in the rear view mirror.
    20 Dec 2012, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • Nokia is not a profitable company.
    21 Dec 2012, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • +1 DrTech. Yes, some NOK pessimists always claim they have zero interest, but spends loads of time 'warning' the Longs. Guess they're just kind-hearted and have lots of time to bother rebutting to almost every comment. Imagine the charity work they must be doing during their free time.
    23 Dec 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • @DeepValueLover


    I agree. the fact is when Apple sells a phone, we get actual sales numbers (usually millions). When we read about Nokia sales, there are never numbers, only "sold out" stories. If Nokia really sold 5 million Lumias, my guess would be that Mr. Elop would be the first to announce the good news...
    20 Dec 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • @DVL, tanjahenk


    I think it's an excellent sign when the AAPL logs come to bash NOK .. means they're worried (and for good reason!)


    China Mobile subsidizes the hell out of the Nokia Lumia 920T while complaining of the iphones "heavy subsidy burden"


    What do you thing THAT means?!! ;-)
    20 Dec 2012, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • Apple with its $9 billion in quarterly free cash flow is certainly worried about a money losing nearly forgotten smartphone also ran that doesn't even control its own OS.


    That makes a lot of sense. :)
    21 Dec 2012, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • DVL, you (cleverly) seem to be answering a question that wasn't asked...
    Lets try again:


    China Mobile subsidizes the hell out of the Nokia Lumia 920T while complaining of the iphones "heavy subsidy burden"


    What do you thing that means?
    23 Dec 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • you are a wind up merchant DVL lol ,,, all fun i guess. An yes i do have a vested interest in a company which supplies apple an samsung, so i suppose you could call that a hedge. But my reasons for investing in NOK is for the long term potential, as i did in the past with Acorn aka Apple an Arm and that went well over time :) An my NOK holdings have cost me zero, so for me nothing to lose' but lots to gain :)... Long NOK
    21 Dec 2012, 06:47 PM Reply Like
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