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Oct. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: +0.7% M/M vs. +0.5% expected, +0.4% prior (revised)....

Oct. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: +0.7% M/M vs. +0.5% expected, +0.4% prior (revised). +4.3% Y/Y vs. +4.1% expected, +3.0% prior (revised).
Comments (31)
  • enigmaman
    , contributor
    Comments (2686) | Send Message
     
    Cant wait to see the SA doomsters posts tearing apart this news which is just another of many months of positive housing reports, the good news is things are looking up, the bad news is its looking up from the the basement, but up none the less
    26 Dec 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Ray Lopez
    , contributor
    Comments (1523) | Send Message
     
    Well you're right about the herd exacerbating a trend (too gloomy down, too cheery up) but in general a falling knife does not drop straight down--there's always pockets of strength. I still think real estate is overvalued, but so far the market has defied my doomster predictions.
    26 Dec 2012, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10848) | Send Message
     
    Enig

     

    I will give you one!! A family member said soon the banks will drop the second half of the foreclosed homes on the market...Watch the prices tank again.

     

    Banks were smart not saturating the market....You shall see!!
    26 Dec 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Dominic Faultz
    , contributor
    Comments (320) | Send Message
     
    The banks were smart not saturating the market and they will be smart not saturating it again.

     

    Best,
    Dom
    26 Dec 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10848) | Send Message
     
    DOM

     

    So whats your point? Don't think foreclosures dropped housing?

     

    Just trying to understand your post.....
    26 Dec 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • enigmaman
    , contributor
    Comments (2686) | Send Message
     
    IT- Lenders have been moving away from REO to embrace SS, more control, less time to bring to market better return, its against the banks interest to dump to many homes on the market, right now they dont need to all they need to do is allow owners to SS before they are in trouble, so the house is not in distress and will sell higher.
    26 Dec 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10848) | Send Message
     
    ENIG

     

    Agree 100%....But those houses will hit the market one day, and soon. You also have companies buying up a ton of foreclosures to rent them out then hopefully flipping them in 7 years. I live in NY and we have quite a few homes with neither a for sale sign or a foreclosed sign...They will hit the market and i don't buy it will be perfect timing !!

     

    Ain't gonna happen with banks not lending, and i don't see things getting any better with more people being laid off then new jobs created.

     

    Plus the younger generation that are 1st time homeowners can't get a mortgage..It will be a mess for years ! imo
    26 Dec 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • enigmaman
    , contributor
    Comments (2686) | Send Message
     
    IT- Banks are working to get ahead of the curve, thats why they are doing SS and thats why they are talking to owners who are in distress but there loans are not, if owners can prove they have heart ship the banks will permit a SS and many will pay owners to leave early, which is huge!!! So yes the homes will be coming to market but they wont be boarded up vacant REO attracting the bottom fishers which will help support prices. These SS come in at or just below market and sell quickly, which helps both the owner and lender get from underneath the debt.

     

    Banks are lending, they are being careful, frankly all they did was go back to the under writing loan standards of the 80s-90s when you had to prove everything, the way it should have always been.

     

    I dont disagree that this is going to take years to clean up but it will clean up because the population keeps growing and they need someplace to live, so they either buy, rent of live with Mom and Dad. The Mom and Dad option will actually help sales and or rentals :) Lets not forget the foreign buyers, Canada, Brazil, Russia to name just a few, so our real estate markets know no borders you have to allow for that as well when you look at the markets. FYI- 25% of the homes sold in SE Fl are bought by Canadians, Miami area is selling to South Americans who look at S Fl real estate as a bargain, Russians are buying high priced NY real estate. Its bad but getting better everyday but most wont notice until its passed them by.
    26 Dec 2012, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10848) | Send Message
     
    EN

     

    MY BROTHER BOUGHT A SS a year ago and where i live it was a nightmare..It was on, then off, then accepted..So i really have to see it ease up to believe it...imo it won't...

     

    i know a young couple who were declined a mortgage over 3 bucks!..i kid you not..Maybe Fla is different but not where i live...

     

    This isn't the 80's or 90's here!!! People just don't get we have a ton of unemployed people and this carousel will keep going...New homes WILL hit the markets and alot of them..Watch...I have a connection high up who i trust.

     

    Everyone can believe what they choose...
    26 Dec 2012, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Dominic Faultz
    , contributor
    Comments (320) | Send Message
     
    IT - Of course, foreclosures put a lot of pressure on prices as the market was flooded with vacant houses. But that's not my point here. What I mean is that recently banks seem to have changed their practices by accomodating owners, thus avoiding more foreclosures. As a result, the market is not saturated with more and more vacant houses, which contributes to better prices.

     

    Best,
    Dom
    26 Dec 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10848) | Send Message
     
    DOM

     

    What i am telling you is that the banks STILL HAVE vacant homes for years now..Haven't you driven by a property that has neither a for sale or foreclosure sign??

     

    They are actually working with the THIRD wave of people now.Wait until the fourth wave hits with unemployment going through the roof ( please tell me you don't believe that 7.7% number)...had 350k people who in Nov. said no mas!!

     

    Like i said until employment picks up this visicous cycle isn't going to end. If you think it has God bless you!!

     

    I have family in this industry and they want to wait until they sell the first round, get prices higher, then dump the second half on the market hoping prices have increased.

     

    They welcome foreign investors...But first time home buyers, our kids, are still having a difficult time getting approved.

     

    BUT, my daughter got a car loan for a brand new car prior to her working full time as a Teacher, he boyfriend was able to buy a construction truck for 150k with very little questions asked...ANOTHER BUBBLE??
    26 Dec 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • marketman54
    , contributor
    Comments (823) | Send Message
     
    First off, is this the same Case Shiller that lied about housing sales 9 months ago - I think it is!!

     

    I agree but the sh*t still looks like sh*t and smells like sh*t!

     

    Only the homes under $250k and over $750k seem to be moving!

     

    Every short sale and foreclosure is still selling better than existing homes or new construction. I wouldn't get to excited, there is no boom here.
    26 Dec 2012, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10848) | Send Message
     
    MARKET MAN

     

    I don't even want to start with the manipultion with commodities.This isn't the site. But look at my posts as it is amazing what they can get away with !!!!
    26 Dec 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Dominic Faultz
    , contributor
    Comments (320) | Send Message
     
    Your daughter's boyfriend is buying a 150k construction truck? Business must be good or he would not do so, right?

     

    To me, this is a good sign that we must buy some construction related stocks right now as business is improving.

     

    Best,
    Dom
    26 Dec 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10848) | Send Message
     
    DOM

     

    Nope, actually he bought it 2 years ago when business was dead. Was taking an investment in buying the truck would get him business..

     

    Theres my point...making nothing yet get a commercial vehicle worth that much? Had his parents to co sign but wasn't needed....Can we all say BUBBLE!!

     

    Two guys he knows already had their vehicles repossed!! Thank god he had other jobs to keep him going. Use to work with the state doing ashpalt on highways....no more!!

     

    So hold off on those stock...In fact buy precious metals if you want my opinion!!
    26 Dec 2012, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Dominic Faultz
    , contributor
    Comments (320) | Send Message
     
    IT - I was lucky enough to buy precious metals in 2002 and sold everything in 2011. Now I am buying construction related stocks as well as some unloved techs.

     

    Will see...

     

    Best,
    Dom
    26 Dec 2012, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10848) | Send Message
     
    Dom

     

    Congrads on those metals...Nice ....very nice....Good Luck!
    26 Dec 2012, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • Dominic Faultz
    , contributor
    Comments (320) | Send Message
     
    Thanks!

     

    All the best to you as well.
    Dom
    26 Dec 2012, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (2574) | Send Message
     
    25% of the sales are still to investors and in many cases foreclosed homes are rented back to the people foreclosed on. the foreclosure moratorium begun about a year ago is over. Credit for any home is still very hard to get and job picture is still ugly.

     

    Banks will release all that distressed inventory driving prices downward again. realtytrac.com (well renowned Marxist Leninist doomsdayer) does not see a bottom in home prices yet. Most of these housing recovery releases/forecasts come from the same source. the unbiased and objective NAR who are basically commissioned sales reps representing sellers, not much different than a used car salesman really(most of em anyhow); predictable regardless of market conditions
    26 Dec 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • enigmaman
    , contributor
    Comments (2686) | Send Message
     
    June- Thank you for that, it didnt take long. Investor sales are down nearly 50% from their highs, pretty good because it means more primary buyers. Foreclosed owners need someplace to live, dont you think they are lucky investors provide them with housing. Mortgage credit should be tough to get, the underwriting for loans is like it was back in the 80-90s when you needed to be able to afford the loan you qualified for. The jobs picture is slowly improving but your focusing on 8% of the population, instead of the 92% that are working, also it wasnt to long ago 6% was considered full employment so maybe you cant see the trees for the forest. Banks will release distressed homes as needed and they will not flood the market they dont have to. Plus in many markets you cant find homes under 200,000 so lets hope they have that price range to bring to market because they will get bought up in a few weeks at the longest. As far as the housing stats go I would venture a guess it wouldn't matter to you who released the info if it wasn't to your liking. You forgot to mention all those bad foreign buyers who are buying up property in S Florida as well as other parts of the country, its not real if they are not bought by Americans , right
    26 Dec 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • woodyj
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    I am a real estate broker and the NAR is among the most worthless organizations on the planet.
    26 Dec 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • realtorman77
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    As a retired CPA, I am now in the Real Estate sales game with over 13 years experience providing consultation and hands on services as a Buyers Agent and Sellers Agent. My New Year's wish is for a dramatic increase in the level of professionalism in real estate, as it applies to agents in the field today and those about to enter the field. Not only do we need to raise the level of professionalism for active agents but there is a critical need to educate the public on the advantages of using an agent and especially on the difference between a buyers agent and a sellers agent and when it is advantages for the client to use a Buyers Agent and when it is advantages to use a Sellers Agent.
    26 Dec 2012, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • enigmaman
    , contributor
    Comments (2686) | Send Message
     
    here here :)
    26 Dec 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10848) | Send Message
     
    Real Estate and Professionalism..Come on they are sales people!!

     

    Nice wish though...
    26 Dec 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • KenGold
    , contributor
    Comments (170) | Send Message
     
    The sequential (month-to-month) home price changes in the 20 markets being tracked have decelerated each of the past four months, and turned negative from September to October for the first time since March. As Robert Shiller recently said, don't expect a continued boom in home prices. The recent upward price trend will probably stall out and be nearly flat over the next year.
    26 Dec 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13228) | Send Message
     
    When prices eventually approach new all-time highs, all the doubters will finally be convinced to plunge in and buy a house (maybe, two) or invest in realty-related stocks. We're years away.
    26 Dec 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Dominic Faultz
    , contributor
    Comments (320) | Send Message
     
    Yep! :-)
    26 Dec 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • magellan1947
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Its nice to hear that, in some markets, home sales are recovering. There are market areas, however, that continue to experience deeply depressed prices. These are the same markets that never experienced wildly inflated home prices, though they did experience the same percentage plunge in prices as the "hot" markets. Its the worst of all scenarios.
    26 Dec 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • BenBminnesota
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    It is interesting to notice that when it is very inexpensive to borrow money to buy a house.( If you qualify). The price of the available housing might go up. Since we do not know the real supply of houses for sale, I believe the price of the available houses are not correct. It is my opinion they are over priced because of limited supply(because owners do not want to take a loss and sell) and cheap money to purchase. The pricing of $200,000 and $ 600,000 homes exposes this problem If you qualify for a mortgage at those levels you bid up the price of available homes. (just what the government wants to happen) I believe there will be another correction when all the qualified buyers are satisfied. They will lose money then too. Cheap money from mortgages increases the price of the available for sale homes as interest rate rise trouble.
    27 Dec 2012, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • Derek A. Barrett
    , contributor
    Comments (3534) | Send Message
     
    Bottom was March 2012

     

    Big investors like Blackrock have literally scooped up inventory of entire cities, and every single person I know has refinanced to ridiculously low rates.

     

    Inventory here in Southern California is down to 2 weeks in many cities.

     

    QE3 was actually too much too late, and was totally unnecessary. There is no way the Fed or the Administration will let prices sink, hard to bet against them.
    27 Dec 2012, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10848) | Send Message
     
    If unemployment continues at this pace people will have to sell just to survive !!!!
    27 Dec 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
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