Seeking Alpha

Putting Apple's (AAPL -1.4%) recent moves in perspective: the company entered 2012 with a P/E of...

Putting Apple's (AAPL -1.4%) recent moves in perspective: the company entered 2012 with a P/E of 11.53 (not counting its cash balance), and is leaving with a P/E of 11.69. But shares are still up 25% YTD, thanks to the earnings growth seen over the interim. Earnings are expected to rise 17% in FY13 (ends in September), and revenue 22%.
Comments (29)
  • If you are not buying apple, the largest, most profitable, best business model company in the world, then you shouldn't buy any stock because none have apples growth rate and ecosystem or profit potential as well as absurdly low P/E. Why then is Apple down you ask. Well as former President Bill Clinton said in a interview when asked "why did you have an affair with Monica Lewinski"? He said... "I did it because I could"


    It's the same thing with apple. The hedge funds have brought it down because they could. When you wield enough fire power at anything, eventually it will fall". The hedge funds do this to Apple every quarter but this time they had help with the fiscal cliff issues etc.


    Beware and be ready, those same hedge funds that shorted apple and whose operatives put out various stories trying to scare holders out of their shares, are about to buy back into Apple within the 1st 10 days of the New Year, maybe a little longer if the fiscal cliff thing is not resolved but rest assured they will be back in before the next earnings report on Or about January 22nd.
    26 Dec 2012, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • How did you forget the dot com bubble? All the superstars of days gone by? Don't be a fool, wait and buy Apple at 300 with your hard earned money oryou might me very disappointed like the owners of many fine large companies that had their day like Sony.
    When Apple lost Steve Jobs it was over. It is not the company that you admired it was Steve Jobs. No one can replace this great man not even come close. I would start buying only below 300.
    26 Dec 2012, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Why not wait for under 200? Better yet, under 100? Are people running a random number generator to come to these numbers?
    26 Dec 2012, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • Ha, ha, ha!
    26 Dec 2012, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Hilarious!
    26 Dec 2012, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • Short interest is miniscule.
    26 Dec 2012, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • Apple isn't close to a dot com bubble company! The PE is 11 not 200 or 300 like a lot of dot com companies if they had any earnings at all. Apple is cash rich and a marketing machine. Yes the vision thing is a concern after Jobs death but the shakeup in management and the promotion of Jony Ive, a close collaborator in design with Jobs, bodes well I believe .
    27 Dec 2012, 04:30 AM Reply Like
  • AAPL has one of highest historical volatilities of any equity in the market. Volatility has the advantage of creating trading opportunities. Wise traders takes advantage of them, the rest complain about their paper losses.
    26 Dec 2012, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • Rick,
    Keep in mind that most people in equities are not traders.
    26 Dec 2012, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • Re: "...the company entered 2012 with a P/E of 11.53 (not counting its cash balance), and is leaving with a P/E of 11.69. But shares are still up 25% YTD, thanks to the earnings growth seen over the interim."


    Something about that doesn't seem right. Apple's earnings rose 59% in 2012, the stock price climbed only 25%, and the P/E went up? I don't think so.
    26 Dec 2012, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting, particularly the "not counting cash" :


    I wonder how long you can "not count the cash" with regard to an AAPL stock analysis. At 130 billion, AAPL will hold nearly 25% of its market cap in cash. By year end, this could be 30%, by next year....


    At some point, any analysis exempting cash will be pointless. Particularly if AAPL surprises us all and puts its cash to better use (acquisition, dividend, buy-back)...
    26 Dec 2012, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • XPP voices a time worn "...when Apple lost Steve Jobs, it was over..."
    Let's look at the great innovators of our time: Orville Wright, Thomas Edison, Henry Ford, Sarnoff, Rockefeller, and Jack Warner. Their companies are doing well without their founders.


    He cites Sony as an example. There was failure of innovation long before its founder, Mr. Morita, passed away (recently).


    The greatest gift Jobs gave to Apple was his reliance on change. The culture of innovation.


    I have moved cash savings over to Apple stock because it pays more than savings.
    26 Dec 2012, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • When it hits 620 before February, I hope you people will know what to do.
    26 Dec 2012, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • Just went ALL IN on AAPL Jan 2014 550 calls. If my options expire worthless while Apple continues to pile on the cash, and without a major war, natural disaster, Apple scandal, or <name your favorite black swan event>, then I am permanently exiting equities and spending my valuable time elsewhere. At that point I'd be convinced that it's totally irrational and would have more fun going to Vegas.
    26 Dec 2012, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • I have a question, what is the reason to not choose in the money calls?
    27 Dec 2012, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • I am willing to take on more risk with OTM calls based on my belief that AAPL will trade back to 700 at some point in 2013.
    27 Dec 2012, 12:45 AM Reply Like
  • People always seems to amaze. Hedge funds injected around 4.5 billion dollars April 2012 p/s @ 600 with a forecast of $1000 pps. Apple had recently gone through a parabolic move when it hit the 700's. Now it had lose 26% of its value since. Fundamentally its still a buy, technically its in trouble. If apple does not come out with mind blowing innovation that'll capture consumers with stellar profit margins, shareholders will be walking on thin ice. JMHO
    26 Dec 2012, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • I went to the Apple store today. The place was crowded with lots of happy folks purchasing and upgrading. Look for Apple to knock it out of the park when earnings are released. This stock is over analyzed. There is no other company that has the products, the people, or consumer loyalty as Apple.
    27 Dec 2012, 12:55 AM Reply Like
  • The dot com buble has nothing to do with AAPL. Dot coms never had ant assets..AAPL does.
    27 Dec 2012, 04:41 AM Reply Like
  • AAPL is strong buy now - Overcrowded shorts have no where to go.. Funny how everyone wanted to buy at 700$ but now at 500$ everyone is scared to touch it
    27 Dec 2012, 04:54 AM Reply Like
  • finally a clear voice that gets it!


    Best leverage is apple Feb / 2013 strike $770 - turns $700 into over $100,000 :)
    27 Dec 2012, 05:03 AM Reply Like
  • How do you figure that??? I figure those go to zero. You must think Apple will go up 70% in two months or something. Not going to happen. It COULD. But I'd give it 1-in-50 odds.
    27 Dec 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks and totally agree with your comments on HEDGERS. They'll scare you to death only to turn around and make a profit on the upside. Just hang strong.
    27 Dec 2012, 05:03 AM Reply Like
  • Why are they not back in already? You can immediately sell shares and buy back in to reset your base for tax purposes... I am long AAPL, just a bit nervous...
    27 Dec 2012, 05:03 AM Reply Like
  • Is there anybody who is trading with CFDs (contract for difference)?
    100 shares @510 = margin 5100 USD (=leverage 10) + 20 USD fee (see Saxobank) :10 points up = 10x100 = +1000
    27 Dec 2012, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • Gerrypi - what's the difference between a CFD and an option ?
    27 Dec 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • CFD = swap on stock with minimum share at 1 share of the underlying stock. CFDs are not legal in the US.
    27 Dec 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • In Europe trading with CFD (contract for difference) is legal.
    It would be very interesting, in which dimensions this trading strategy could manipulate the stock price.
    A realistic or not realistic? example:
    short-CFD-trade with 100’000 shares at 510: Margin for trading is 5’100’000 USD (because leverage is 10 you pay only 10% of the share price), the stock moves from 510 to 508, close of this trade position at 508, profit of this trade 2 x 100’000 = 200’000.-, realized in perhaps 5 or 10 minutes.
    The great CFD-players do so with the so called “millisecond”-trading (computer automated) and they prefer volatile stocks.
    I think this “market players” manipulate Apples share price on a large scale.
    Google saxotrader and you can run a demo cfd-trading.
    (I’m from Switzerland, please apologize my English)
    28 Dec 2012, 04:43 AM Reply Like
  • WAY TOO MUCH AAPL. 50% say it will go way down, 50% say it will jump to 700 soon, I do no believe any of you knows more than the guy on the street! if you are a gambler as I am, just hold on for about three more months, and hope for the best, If it goes to 600, count your blessings and sell.This assumes you bought it when it sas cheap!!
    27 Dec 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)