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After closing on Friday near 10-month lows, Apple (AAPL +3.1%) is rallying in the absence of...

After closing on Friday near 10-month lows, Apple (AAPL +3.1%) is rallying in the absence of major news. Likely helping: a weekend Barron's column that made a bull case for the stock while suggesting much of the "fast money" that had joined the bandwagon is now gone. Also, year-end sales made for tax purposes might now be letting up.
Comments (24)
  • SoldHigh
    , contributor
    Comments (1005) | Send Message
     
    AAPL may be a "January "effect" play for a bounce, but longer term, the stock is now in a downtrend imo.
    31 Dec 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • jrez
    , contributor
    Comments (299) | Send Message
     
    And yet almost every analyst target is above historic highs.
    31 Dec 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • nguyenvanphuoc
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I can totally see AAPL trending down to trade at maybe 5-6 times earnings, and under 3 times cash. Best to sell now. It's definitely on its last legs.
    31 Dec 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • Jack Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (886) | Send Message
     
    BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Totally, LOL
    31 Dec 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Eric Dee
    , contributor
    Comments (910) | Send Message
     
    Yes please sell now while it's up so some real investors can come in and buy before it goes up following the earnings report!
    31 Dec 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • rocback
    , contributor
    Comments (978) | Send Message
     
    I was expecting another down day today as the last day of selling at the lower cap gains rate but the fact that it is up strong today tells me the tax selling is over and Apples famous slinglshot effects starts now.
    31 Dec 2012, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • nguyenvanphuoc
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    This article might also be playing a part:

     

    http://yhoo.it/RqfKua

     

    Seems that China Mobile may not hold all the cards in dealing with Apple.
    31 Dec 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • drmwsunner
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    Invest in AAPL for the long term...ignore the day to day "casino" effect. Fast money analysts on CNBC are obviously short the stock and have been for the last 3 months...I think its time for Gundlach and Kass to throw in the short towels and go long. A huge qtr earnings report should take it back to $600+, and by February AAPL should be pushing to new highs. Long term investment for retirees and those just starting out...it's the best company in the world and it's a USA firm.
    31 Dec 2012, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • MDHJr
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    All I can say is that I went to our local AT&T store yesterday to buy 2 I Phones and they were sold out, so I went to Best Buy, and had to wait 30 minutes to be waited on because the 3 reps were all waiting on customers buying I Phones. Not scientific, but tells me something.

     

    By the way, this was a holiday purchase that I delayed so as to activate the same day as we bought the new phones. I don't think Im alone and the numbers will tell all.
    31 Dec 2012, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Roy Blanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (52) | Send Message
     
    I don't think it's quite over for AAPL. I ran the FY2012 results through the earnings model I use in my railroad analysis and the results are quite good.

     

    YOY changes from FY 2011: Revs +45%, ops income +64%, diluted share count unchanged (meaning the net income delta is all results, no artificial push from buy-backs), net income +61%, and no debt.
    Free cash flow +28%, FCF after dividends +21%, net margin 61%, current ratio 1.5, ROIC 35%.

     

    As a hard-core Graham-style value investor, I have to say the company still looks like a pretty good deal to me.

     

    Disclosure: I do not own AAPL shares at this writing but expect to fix that shortly.
    31 Dec 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • bgold1955
    , contributor
    Comments (1962) | Send Message
     
    I have raised my target to $ 1,112.
    31 Dec 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Petelovesamy
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    What Is Good For AAPL Is Good For A M E R I C A !?
    31 Dec 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • no one really
    , contributor
    Comments (123) | Send Message
     
    This just in: Markets Still Irrational. (just this time, it's up)
    31 Dec 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • iloewy
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    AAPL could easily reach $ 600 once the great earnings are announced on Jan.23
    31 Dec 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • rperson
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    About time the short sellers give it up. You guys had your fun. No one is going to listen to the gloom scenarios, margin problems, Foxconn rumors and doom and gloom predictions of of share price below $300 any more. It's our turn.
    31 Dec 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • trade bait
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    Apple sold 37m phones 2012Q1. The only question to ask yourself is do you believe they sold a) less phones or b) more phones.

     

    Last quarter apple sold 26.9m iphone 4s basically, represent 58%yoy in Q4.

     

    So if Apple sell 25% yoy that would be 46m iphones, 35% is 50m iphones.

     

    So ask yourself, do you think Apple sold more or less iphones?
    31 Dec 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • PassiveInvestorWins
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    I have a feeling Apple will rally hard once all the bulls have been turned into bears! I do find comments like "All I can say is that I went to our local AT&T store yesterday to buy 2 I Phones and they were sold out" amusing. When did this become analysis or a reason to buy a stock?

     

    Even though I am long Apple, and I'd like to see it go higher, I hate to see such aggressive supporters of a stock. There are still too many bulls on Apple in my mind for it to make a sustained push higher. I have learnt that good investment results combine two patience with the matra: buy what the crowd dislikes (and sell what the crowd loves). If I am not extremely uncomfortable making an investment because it has a lot of uncertainty which the market has discounted (e.g. buying European financials in the summer of 2012), I find I usually overpay for it.

     

    Just my two cents...

     

    The market rarely rewards large swathes of impatient people (aggressive people tend also to be impatient in my experience).
    31 Dec 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • nguyenvanphuoc
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    " I do find comments like "All I can say is that I went to our local AT&T store yesterday to buy 2 I Phones and they were sold out" amusing. When did this become analysis or a reason to buy a stock?"

     

    It should never be the sole reason or only analysis, but as a "smell test" it's an indicator.

     

    Another example is Costco - on a random Tuesday in October I went there when the store opened and about 100 people were lined up to get in right at 10am. Not for anything special, just because they wanted to get in and get what they needed. The same store is busy EVERY time I go, morning, noon or night. Does that mean they're going to be a successful investment? No. But it does indicate that they have something that people want all the time.

     

    Going to random store and seeing that the iPhone is in high demand isn't a reason to buy the stock, but it's a positive "smell test" indicator.

     

    Or maybe I just like saying "smell test" over and over again. :)
    31 Dec 2012, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Vipertom
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    As an AAPL bull, both as an investor and consumer, I have come to the conclusion that AAPL is just another stock.

     

    I love their products, and do not expect to change my interest in their products.
    However, the market seems to feel that unless AAPL can add to the innovation, it is in a decline.

     

    An example made by a commentator on CNBC was, if Google and Apple made no innovations for the next five years, Google would still have a viable business plan, and Apple would be toast. Just points out the need for the innovation necessary for Apple to keep its numbers up.

     

    I bought several iPad Minis as gifts this year. If, next year at this time, the Mini had a retina display,would I buy the same number or more? The answer is no. Probably would not buy any.

     

    So, I think, even though it is a fantastic, innovative company, as a stock investment, it should not be overweight in your portfolio. It has become way to volatile, and is behaving like any other stock.
    31 Dec 2012, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • faramarz
    , contributor
    Comments (246) | Send Message
     
    The CNBC commentator is saying just what he is told to say. The Google biz plan may also become less viable if they dont find new ways fattening fingers & bringing people to click on adds. Besides, it is a biz plan based on spying people's behavior which could be stopped by authorities.
    Apple is innovating every day. Being incremental, evolutionary or revolutionary. Apple's management knows it better than u & me. Apple has done this always & certainly since SJ returned to Apple.
    Apple's computer line is making money since 1994 only with incremental innovation.
    Apple's IPOD was a revolutionary product back in 2003 but it is still making money only with incremental innovations.
    The Iphone was another revolutionary product brought in 2007 & since then selling more & more thanks to some evolutionary or +/- revolutionary innovations.
    The Ipad came in 2010 & since then has had some +/- revolutionary or evolutionary (depends on one's expectations) innovations. Sales are increasingly increasing.
    The Ipad mini, although not a new product, is the last born & is selling better than the full size item. Is it a revolutionary product or just an entry price product brought in to compete with Nexus7 or Kindle fire. What-ever, as long as it sells over the expectations.

     

    Where do you see a sign of lack of innovation in Apple's products.

     

    In which co's products do you see all those innovations that you do not see in Apple's.

     

    Who else than Apple has brought a new revolutionary product to the market. They are all waiting the Apple's next product to copy it some times later.

     

    Samsung & some others have already brought the Smart TV to the market. Nobody buys those stuff even at high discount. They are all waiting Apple's. Now, buyers know that Apple will launch an Smart TV only if the full meaning of Smart can be applied to the function of TV. Otherwise Apple will not launch a TV.

     

    The CNBC commentator is just doing what he is told to do for just one purpose : To bring people like you to do what-ever they want you to do. The CNBC commentator is not advising you to do anything logic. He is just trying to push you in the direction his bosses have indicated him.
    1 Jan 2013, 06:56 AM Reply Like
  • Michael2343
    , contributor
    Comments (457) | Send Message
     
    They keep saying it, but the stock keeps going down.
    31 Dec 2012, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • Sonia
    , contributor
    Comments (364) | Send Message
     
    I suspect the decline was caused by the big boys doing what I finally cottoned on to: selling shares bought years ago to lock in the tax rate, then repurchasing as the stock dropped in price, taking money out and establishing a higher tax base on the same number of shares for future appreciation. My guess is that with tax churning over the stock can now go up again. Sure hope so!
    31 Dec 2012, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • faramarz
    , contributor
    Comments (246) | Send Message
     
    Clever investor's decision. You enjoyed a good profit at lower tax rate & banked in the difference while establishing a higher tax base.

     

    I did the same partially although i am not US citizen.
    I also sold some other stock to buy more Apple at 510.

     

    Unfortunately, the money gained by the big boys is out of panic sellers pocket. This was the CNBC commentator's bosses goal.
    1 Jan 2013, 07:10 AM Reply Like
  • debtfree1
    , contributor
    Comments (209) | Send Message
     
    I have to wonder if Apple's iOS and Mountain Lion O/S make it harder for China's government to monitor their citizens web activity?
    31 Dec 2012, 08:54 PM Reply Like
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