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The apparent movement towards a deal has the VIX plunging 19%, one of its biggest single-day...

The apparent movement towards a deal has the VIX plunging 19%, one of its biggest single-day implosions in years (and that's saying something). The "fear gauge" had made a big move higher since mid-December as traders bet on a D.C. agreement not being reached. Other big moves: August 2011, -27%, May 2010 -30%. VXX -10.1%.
Comments (10)
  • Ariel Aharonovich
    , contributor
    Comments (433) | Send Message
     
    Temporarily... volatility should be on the rise this year so holding into the VIX/VXX is a smart move.
    31 Dec 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Seth Walters
    , contributor
    Comments (675) | Send Message
     
    And yet, we don't have a deal.
    31 Dec 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • wmateri
    , contributor
    Comments (518) | Send Message
     
    No only the rumor of a deal and the whispers that go with that. If we buy the rumor and sell the news then the VIX should jump up again on Wednesday when "the deal" is revealed (or reviled!) in all its glory.
    31 Dec 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Laurent1962
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately it didn't .....
    4 Jan 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • DubyaT
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    I don't understand. You were negotiating with Boehner because the House is the legislative body you are most concerned about the agreement being able to pass. So going back and negotiating a deal with the Senate (one that seems even less palatable to the House members than the one they rejected) seems irrelevant.

     

    I think the only thing being accomplished here is the Senate gets to say, "See, we are the reasonable ones!". I think this just puts Boehner in an even worse position. The hardliner house members are concerned about being primaried, not losing their seat to a Democrat. They CANNOT budge.

     

    This was a great day to realize year-end gains and losses.
    31 Dec 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • toncuz
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    The debt ceiling drama hasn't even started yet...better hold on to that VXX for another month.
    31 Dec 2012, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • barrry
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Still holding VXX sooner or later reality will set in. PIMCO head said it best yesterday on CNBC, Berneke is no Rumplstiskin, he cannot spin straw into gold forever !
    1 Jan 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • EARLPEARL
    , contributor
    Comments (254) | Send Message
     
    japan has been spinning straw into gold for over 20 years, and just recently has shifted into higher gear....so THE BERNAK can do it for a LONG LONG TIME....probably longer than you can stay solvent....
    1 Jan 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • tombear
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    UVXY is one of the best very short term trading instrument, Friday it went down -24.6% in a single day, but on the other side of the coin UVXY could go up more than +30% in a single day, too.
    So this is the best tool to make money. XIV also good tool ,too. But less volatility than uvxy.
    SPX at this point in time @1426 Friday closed is about the highest it could get, last year high of 1475 could be the highest of this business cycle, monetary policy wise.
    Starting 2013, there we shall have new fiscal policy which will challenge the current monetary policy, aiming maximum employment and lower inflation. With $16 trillion debt, there is going to have lots deep problem to deal with fiscally, global recession is in the order, and huge deflation globe wise will kick in sooner than any one could image, prices will drop like a rock big time.
    For this very simple reason UVXY will do exceptionally well, except last Friday.
    My best educational bet is that UVXY below $20.00 is a stealing buy. (do your own deligence though}
    lONG TERM spx looks reached the top 30 years weekly chart,so does short term one year daily chart. UVXY long term chart looks bottomed out, short term looks very bullish. Friday 24.6% retraced to recent breakaway gap up neckline, technically speaking that $20.00 could be the low it could get.

     

    We shall see the next few days what the price actions suggest, if spx break down that1400 support level, and UVXY hangs in above $20.00 we shall know the new bear market is in.
    1 Jan 2013, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • tombear
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    UVXY hit new low but XIV did not hit new high,spx did not hit new high but closed new high, if market were so bullish XIV should hit new high or all time high, so there is a divergence between XIV and UVXY.
    Also statistically VIX fear index hit below 14 indicates euphoria state, vix hit 13.30 tells us it is very much overbought, UVXY oversold, too much fear for uvxy.
    This kind of divergence suggests UVXY below $16.00 be a buy.
    Too euphoria is the prices are too high, UVXY too low.
    Down trend of UVXY is near the end, soon up trend should be confirmed. Dec. UVXY displayed an uptrend but short lived. It is normal market intended to change from the down trend to uptrend, it does need a big clean out those who are so fearful and then uptrend confirmed. But if any one who are waiting this uptrend confirmation, they have to paid the higher prices in the end something like above $20/share breakout point for uvxy, so everything below $16.00 in the longer term will be the big winners. Buy low sell high every one makes money. Patience and consistency are the keys to battle this market.
    5 Jan 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
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