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The House passes the Senate's fiscal cliff bill, 257-167. It now heads to the president for...

The House passes the Senate's fiscal cliff bill, 257-167. It now heads to the president for signature. (what's in the deal)
Comments (169)
  • Bear Bait
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    Awright....
    1 Jan 2013, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • WisPokerGuy
    , contributor
    Comments (747) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if Obama will sign it? (joking)
    1 Jan 2013, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    Is this all a reality TV show?
    2 Jan 2013, 12:53 AM Reply Like
  • The EconomicJoker
    , contributor
    Comments (961) | Send Message
     
    Like throwing a hotdog down a hallway.
    1 Jan 2013, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • BruceInKY
    , contributor
    Comments (397) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinking of entitled swine tossing defective cultured pearls.
    1 Jan 2013, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • WisPokerGuy
    , contributor
    Comments (747) | Send Message
     
    Say what???
    1 Jan 2013, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • BruceInKY
    , contributor
    Comments (397) | Send Message
     
    "Do not give what is holy to dogs, and do not throw pearls before swine, lest they trample them under their feet, and turn and tear you to pieces." (Matthew 7:6).
    1 Jan 2013, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (3006) | Send Message
     
    All tax increases and no spending cuts.

     

    Sigh
    1 Jan 2013, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • dividend_growth
    , contributor
    Comments (2877) | Send Message
     
    That will come during the debt ceiling debate.

     

    Major entitlement reforms against removal of debt ceiling.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:39 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    If you don't throw grandma on the street we will bankrupt the country. That should go down well with the voters. Too bad the 2014 elections are so far away and the public has short memories. I hope Republicans keep up the good work though.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:40 AM Reply Like
  • kyleg17
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Stock market is gunna soar in 10 hrs..
    1 Jan 2013, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • btrahan
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Really? I feel this was assumed in the surge on 12/31/12.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:13 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12442) | Send Message
     
    What's the bet that we gap up and sell on the news? Traders always have a way of confounding expectations.
    1 Jan 2013, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4040) | Send Message
     
    No - we plain rally on this.
    1 Jan 2013, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    For 6 weeks. May be 7. Then we are down for the debt standoff when I will be buying options again for the inevitable, the Republican Party makes a lot of noise but then rolls over. I will be taking profits tmrw for the options I bought preparing for the massive post cliff rally.
    1 Jan 2013, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • btrahan
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    I am not convinced we'll see a rise tomorrow. I feel like the action on 12/31/12 assumed this deal would happen ASAP.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:12 AM Reply Like
  • russellb73
    , contributor
    Comments (397) | Send Message
     
    hey they showed up tonight....that is progress for the U.S. Congress.
    1 Jan 2013, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • Kyle Spencer
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    Ha!
    2 Jan 2013, 01:48 AM Reply Like
  • btrahan
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    LOL - yeah, nice to see them work late...! :P
    2 Jan 2013, 02:12 AM Reply Like
  • kyleg17
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    I feel like stocks are spring loaded and won't selloff for 6 more weeks.. Print print print...
    1 Jan 2013, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Are Tea Party Patriots sad?
    1 Jan 2013, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • SoldHigh
    , contributor
    Comments (981) | Send Message
     
    Fadable gap coming imo
    1 Jan 2013, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • alf2011
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    $620 billion in tax hikes and $15 billion in net spending cuts ... now nobody can deny that the democrats are for fair and balanced approach to reducing the deficit.
    1 Jan 2013, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • larocag
    , contributor
    Comments (1467) | Send Message
     
    Its 2013, they passed a huge tax cut. Just ask Grover.
    1 Jan 2013, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • jsIRA
    , contributor
    Comments (2321) | Send Message
     
    I don't think that there will be sell-off on news. Market will go higher January Rally. But it will not have the gains I saw yesterday.
    1 Jan 2013, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • marketwatcher23
    , contributor
    Comments (935) | Send Message
     
    bye bye "republican" party.
    1 Jan 2013, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Paul Ryan voted for the bill. When asked why, he said, "Because." When pressed, he repeated, "Because."

     

    I feel bad for Ryan.
    1 Jan 2013, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4040) | Send Message
     
    I do not.......
    1 Jan 2013, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • bbrady413
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    Paul Ryan is another RINO now. About the only people in Congress I still have any respect for our Rand Paul and Marco Rubio.
    2 Jan 2013, 12:14 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    I feel for you Brady. Even Paul Ryan has betrayed the Party. This is THE Paul Ryan who was going to personally throw grandmas on the street.

     

    I say vote all these RINOs out and let the Dems in.
    2 Jan 2013, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • bbrady413
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    The Dems cut $800 billion out of Medicare to pay for Obamacare, and you think Paul Ryan was going to throw grandma in the street? Wake up Macro.
    2 Jan 2013, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    What good is Paul if he wasn't going to throw grandma on the streets? He is like Nancy Pelosi then.
    2 Jan 2013, 12:32 AM Reply Like
  • bbrady413
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    Yes I know, that is why I have no respect for him any more. He is Boehner-mini.

     

    Eric Cantor's stock went up in my book. At least he had the sack to vote no on this pathetic piece of legislation.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    I agree with you. All the 80 odd Republican Congressmen who votes Yes on the cliff bill need to be voted out and replaced with Democrats. I mean, if they are RINOs, might as well have Democrats in their place.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:09 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Brady, There was another very good thing that happened tonight. The Hastert rule is out and democracy is in. Rejoice my friend. I congratulate Boehner for that, and he will be the speaker again so its all good. The dems are stronger in the House this time so every single time the Hastert rule is broken, the Tea Party Patriots will become sad. No longer will a minority be able to control the majority.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:32 AM Reply Like
  • Poor Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (3528) | Send Message
     
    If deficit spending is so good, why doesn't the government send each citizen and alien a check for $1,000 each month and really goose the economy. :-(
    1 Jan 2013, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • AlbionWood
    , contributor
    Comments (760) | Send Message
     
    Like Bush did, you mean? Only that was $300, just enough to keep him in office.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • taxman100
    , contributor
    Comments (225) | Send Message
     
    I've been waiting on the "fiscal cliff resolution" rally in order to sell. Whether the rally is one day, or one month, is the question. Taking revenue from the private sector and giving it to an absolutely corrupt incompetent entity like the Federal Government only adds further risk to the market being propped up solely by the money printing bubble.

     

    Since the market has been a zero sum game for about the last 12 years, you have "know when to hold em, and know when to fold em".
    1 Jan 2013, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • Seppo Sahrakorpi
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Me too. Made some good trades/sells today :)
    2 Jan 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • hanakookie
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    Today was the only hope for the repubs. I would never vote for anyone who made a pledge of NEVER.
    divided we stand was the motto, but what caused this.
    One term president.
    Socialist.
    Gonna take our guns away.
    Anti business.

     

    Look at the facts you who support this kind of antics need to reallocate your cash and put it to work. You are not going to get an 09 for a very long time. You missed the boat again.lol And for those who are short I have one simple word ,cover.

     

    Disclosure: I am better off today than I was four years ago. Are you.? If not whose fault is that. You drank the bear koolaid.
    1 Jan 2013, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • Teutonic Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (1988) | Send Message
     
    Is this a joke or a hoax?

     

    Never mind, just exactly as I predicted elsewhere in SA.

     

    Good Night!
    2 Jan 2013, 12:01 AM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps time to take a few profits, then await debt ceiling negotiations. The Treasury Secretary indicated about 2 months of extraordinary measures can avoid the ceiling. So just as in August 2011, markets appear likely to dump and correct at that time.
    2 Jan 2013, 12:01 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    I think the next 6 weeks we rally hard.
    2 Jan 2013, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • larocag
    , contributor
    Comments (1467) | Send Message
     
    The deal wasn't that big of a deal and the market knows in 6 weeks we can go insane.
    2 Jan 2013, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    Still many potential headwinds. Nice little relief rally at the moment, as Wall Street returns to work. Still no opinions from Moody's nor Fitch. Waiting for retail sales data. Europe mostly in recession. I'll be watching SPXA50R, amongst other indicators.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • rcpatrick5443
    , contributor
    Comments (668) | Send Message
     
    There's actually a lot in the agreement for which we could be thankful, and it seems that with criticism coming from both directions, a fair compromise may have been reached. With daunting national and international economic problems, insufficient employment, often simplistic and misleading media coverage, and severely polarized public opinion, it's a wonder that any agreement was reached. We need to cut spending without sending the economy into a recession. Can Seeking Alpha contributors suggest concepts of practical, politically-achievable steps for balancing the equation?
    2 Jan 2013, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • Sammy Lee
    , contributor
    Comments (295) | Send Message
     
    Are you serious? You think $15 B in cuts for a Trillion dollar economy is going to make a dent?
    2 Jan 2013, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (1523) | Send Message
     
    Somehow most people have bought into all the hyperventilating about govt spending and deficits. First of all Govt deficits are always counterbalanced by private sector surpluses ( thats just an accounting identity). The US , over the past 50 years, has run a deficit in all but 4 years(1998-2001). Since peaking in 2009 at 1.5T the deficit has reduced to 1.1T in 2012 and under 1T in 2013 ( adjusted for inflation).
    There is also no need to run around with our hair on fire about te national debt. Its 16T , of which 5T is social sec trust fund stuff. So 11T of publicly held debt. I believe it is reasonable to offset this with the Fed's security holdings ( since the Fed pays out its earnings to the US treasury) that is about 3T. So net net we are talking about 8T in debt or about 50% of GDP. the Fed is also buying securities at a 1T/yr clip as we speak.
    I think Obama has it about right. Just dont do anything stupid , cut out wasteful spending- sure, but the deficit will gradually come down as growth comes back. Yes I do believe the US economy will do better than many others believe.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    RS, Spot on!
    2 Jan 2013, 01:05 AM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (1523) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Macro! By the way i think one other fears mongered by the repubs is the huge growth in medicare spending etc. well, actually it is quite posible that due to demographics etc, healthcare could indeed be a growth engine for the GDP! After all , all that medical spending is income to someone in the economy! The other growth engines are energy, technology and possibly a manufacturing rennaisance. Sorry - no great apocalypse or rapture is going to bail out folks who are being lazy and dont acquire the skills to succeed in this great economy! The greatest risk to most people is a life of boredom, ill-health and poverty !
    2 Jan 2013, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • bbrady413
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    RS,
    Where does this Medicare spending boon to GDP come from? You liberals always forget that money doesn't fall out of the sky. It has to come from somewhere. If you take $10 out of my pocket, then give $9 back to me, you can't claim I made $9.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:27 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    The one place where I think USA has a real issue though is education. The cost of it is growing too fast and getting out of the reaches of the middle class. Something should be done there, e.g., more scholarships for private schools and more funding for public schools. My dear wish is that the defense budget is cut to fund education and it is made free at all levels as in K-12. Just like we have private schools now, we will continue to have private colleges. To get there we need to vastly expand the set of public universities and colleges we have.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:30 AM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (1523) | Send Message
     
    Hi bbrady. I dont know that Iam a liberal - if you saw my background you would conclude I was highly conservative! There is a meme that seems to have taken hold: that the Federal Govt needs to balance its books like an idividul/company or state govt . This is just a mis-understanding of how the system works. If you were on a desert island and used shells for money - you would have a better analogy for the modern economy. GDP growth will come from employing un/under-employed folks to provide highly valued medical services.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:32 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Brady, Do you know how banks create money through lending? Do you understand the concept of velocity of money, and how the more money changes hands the more money is created?
    2 Jan 2013, 01:42 AM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (1523) | Send Message
     
    macro- agree on working on the K12 stuff, but internet based interactive learning is where its going. MIT offers free courses on a huge number of subjects - you should check it out. This whole thing of sending reluctant teenagers off to college to study english literature or philosophy - is just an affectation - an expensive vanity.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:44 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    RS, May be, but I don't think internet based interactive learning is for everyone. This is based on a very small sample of my own family, so not statistically significant in any way. Classrooms encourage a level of discussion that I have found to be absent in the internet courses offered for middle and high school kids. But technology changes, time changes, I get old, so you very well may be right.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:52 AM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (1523) | Send Message
     
    Sure - Iam just in a positive mood and trying to counter the -"we can never get there from here" defeatism that appears to have taken hold across the land! I have no idea how it all pans out - but I can see the possibilities of making technical knowledge very cheap and easy to acquire for those who are so motivated. Of course not everyone has the aptitude or interest. The trades ( plumbers and electricians seem to do pretty well1) may be an option for some. And of course the hyper-expensive Ivys will probably continue to play their role as a feeder into the the washington-Wall-Street machine - for those with a desire for pure power uber-alles!
    2 Jan 2013, 02:12 AM Reply Like
  • TakeFive
    , contributor
    Comments (5108) | Send Message
     
    RS.... one of the best comments I've read at SA. Well done.
    2 Jan 2013, 04:26 AM Reply Like
  • TakeFive
    , contributor
    Comments (5108) | Send Message
     
    Dang... a double. I've also tried to point out that healthcare is additive to our economy and in fact one of our more productive assets.

     

    I have also suggested that if we were to re-frame the argument, we could then create a form of VAT or sales tax at the wholesale level to cover Medicare/caid, VA-TRICARE and S.S. (for example).
    2 Jan 2013, 04:31 AM Reply Like
  • bbrady413
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    Macro, we currently have no money velocity. That is why despite the Fed pumping as much Monopoly money as they can into the banks to lend, it isn't doing any good. Demand is low, we're in a recession, and everybody is too scared to stick their neck out. Pumping more dollars doesn't help that. Do you know what a Keynesian liquidity trap is? We're stuck in one right now.
    2 Jan 2013, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    So what do you propose we do to get out of the liquidity trap, Brady? Lower the money supply and really tank the economy?

     

    I had this friend who was a conservative Republican. He used to talk about the liquidity trap a lot. At the same time he had a minor ailment was was not life threatening, but was quite annoying physically, and was very slow to respond to medication. He was making progress, but not fast enough. I told him to stop taking the medication as clearly he was in a medication trap.

     

    He stopped being my friend.
    2 Jan 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    Pushing on a string.
    2 Jan 2013, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Then we might as well keep doing it, as it is not going to lead to inflation, right Tom?
    2 Jan 2013, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    If you want to lose all credibility behind your fiat currency then full speed ahead. That will come back to bite us and it will result in higher cost of money. At the same time you really don't accomplish much though because demand is not strong enough to respond to it.

     

    The Fed is doing all they can to keep debt servicing costs down and try to encourage some growth by providing fuel for the growth. However corporations have already cleaned up their balance sheets and are hunkered down for tax hits and health care cost hits. So they just continue to cut costs. Consumers have been drawing down debt and battening down the hatches.

     

    If we could have a clear fiscal path to rationale objectives along with clear tax burdens, health care costs and other clouds hanging around we could have a growth rate 3% or higher which we need. But votes are more important than growth so we are in a lazy death spiral to the next crisis.
    3 Jan 2013, 12:14 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Why do you think you understand all this and other voters don't?
    3 Jan 2013, 12:22 AM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    Same reason I make money year after year and other people don't. I do my homework. And I have done it for over 30 years.

     

    Denial always comes before a crisis.
    3 Jan 2013, 12:38 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    What is the reason?
    3 Jan 2013, 12:38 AM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    The reason is a failure of the education system at the high school level. Teach more about economics and finance, then bubbles like the housing run-up would attract and fool fewer people (though the greedy would still probably jump in).
    3 Jan 2013, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Duck, I agree with you there. If we taught more finance and economics in K-12 Democrats would always win.
    3 Jan 2013, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • rcpatrick5443
    , contributor
    Comments (668) | Send Message
     
    TomasViewPoint -- I'd be very interested to hear your ideas for getting to the 3% growth rate that you cite: "a clear fiscal path to rational objectives along with clear tax burdens, health care costs and other clouds." Do you see a potentially achievable political route?
    3 Jan 2013, 01:40 AM Reply Like
  • bbrady413
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    How about cutting the federal behemoth? What started out as a leach on the system is now a field of leaches on the system. What generally stops people from starting a business, or hiring, or spending money? Taxes. Regulation. Costs associated with government. Think about it. If I make pizzas well, it is illegal for me to open a shop and start selling pizzas. I need to form a corporation, get a tax certificate, get a building inspection, get an occupancy permit, get a health inspection, etc etc etc. Look at these stories you hear about government departments shutting down 5 year olds' lemonade stands because they haven't jumped through the government hoops. We don't live in a free society anymore because of the tyranny of government on all levels and all of the freeloaders they're towing along. Look at a case like Wickard v. Filburn, which is frequently used to uphold governmental authority. A person in this country can't even grow wheat to feed their family if it interferes with what the government doesn't approve of. What a sad state of affairs we're in.
    3 Jan 2013, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    rc

     

    Since small businesses have generated almost 2/3rds of the new jobs in the last 15 years the focus needs to be on them although we need to look at the huge amounts of cash that large corps are sitting on and not spending. The goal with large businesses is to get them to quit shedding employees and at least stay flat or improve slightly.

     

    Access to credit, taxes and regulation are big issues for small business. Large businesses are focused more on taxes and regulation as they have access to credit.

     

    Lending is painful right now as regulators are pushing hard on banks to lower their risk and taking away fee income which subsidized riskier loans. In addition banks cannot profitably make small business loans to the majority of small businesses because their costs are so high from branch networks, etc. Home equity has dried up which was a source of small business funding.

     

    Overall the economic discussion of the country is based in WDC not on Main Street or Wall Street which tells you that the business community is not leading. When that happens you will have sluggish growth because it is not about business it is about politicians. So business hunkers down.

     

    The route to getting to a better place is to have known numbers how we get our fiscal house in order so everyone knows what they will have to pay over time. SSA and Medicare drive that conversation for the most part. ACA needs to be quantified and the bill presented to a tax payer who is known. Regulation needs to be calibrated and the relationship between WDC and business needs to improve dramatically. The access to capital is a bit tougher as it cost a lot of money to book a loan and many loans just are not that big and they don't want to pay 20% for micro loans.

     

    I don't see a political solution in the next year or so as WDC is not being honest about the numbers or addressing them and that results in hesitation in the business community. Large corps take the only action they know which is cut employees, expenses and invest capital in other parts of the world where the results are more clear.
    3 Jan 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Brady, I am with you on regulations. It is unconscionable to ask a food service business to pass health inspections. If the public things they have the right to know that their food is safe then they are simply trampling over the rights of small business owners. We need to become more like China and allow businesses to put random stuff in infant formula. Otherwise freedom and liberty is trampled upon and the economy will never grow, never mind the current growth.
    3 Jan 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • rcpatrick5443
    , contributor
    Comments (668) | Send Message
     
    Tomas ViewPoint Thanks for responding. I agree that it's important to get everyone to start to work with the real numbers. I also agree that such an agreement is not likely. The political polarization of the past twelve years has left individuals more insistent than ever that their view is the only correct one -- in spite of contradicting history and facts. The mess is compounded by media and pundits playing on and inflaming disunity by substituting for the search for truth (which I believe is their mission) a public and humiliating keeping of score -- saying who "won" the issue and who "caved." This meddling leads to losses of face and alienation of support groups for people who even express interest in understanding (much less, agreement with) opposition arguments. The claim in the recent Presidential race that "We won't let our campaign be ruled by fact checkers" simply made clear what had already had become apparent: lots of people are willing to distort the truth if it is politically expedient. I think that to get people working collaboratively to try to solve our economic problems is going to depend on lots and lots of individuals' speaking out. Seeking Alpha commenters can be an important source of ideas of how to approach fiscal solutions.
    3 Jan 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • bbrady413
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    Macro, you're missing the point, which is when you pile on onerous regulation after regulation after regulation, it becomes less and less worth it to open up a business. Much of it stems from paranoia. Are you saying that a 5 year old shouldn't be allowed to open a lemonade stand in the summer because it hasn't passed a health inspection? Whatever happened to word of mouth and common sense.

     

    Then comes the point of ridiculousness. Look at this.
    http://bit.ly/X3oaqt

     

    Just think about it. Government regulations said that the owners of this store were breaking the law because they put out coffee and donuts for their customers. This wasn't a bearded unshowered perv with a van that said 'free candy' handing out unwrapped Snickers bars to kids. This is a hardware store doing something nice for their customers.

     

    But enjoy your regulations. Just don't come complaining that there are no jobs, or the high cost of goods and services.
    3 Jan 2013, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Brady, Did you read the jobs report this morning? Your paranoia about regulations is not healthy. Don't let that influence your investments.

     

    Businesses will always complain about regulations. Business will also always try to make money. Making money depends on demand. Demand comes from the poor and middle class having more money to spend. The poor and the middle class has more money to spend if they have social safety nets. Vote Democrat if you want small business to do well.
    3 Jan 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • bbrady413
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    The poor and middle class have more money to spend if they have JOBS. It becomes difficult to create jobs when onerous regulations squelches job creation, or if they don't, they drive up the cost of labor and the price of goods.

     

    Want to really give more money to the poor? Abolish the minimum wage. Watch unemployment drop to almost zero and aggregate demand go through the roof. Let people spend more from the position of emploment, not welfare collecting.
    3 Jan 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Brady, How about we put a cap of $0/hr on all wages? That sure would drop unemployment to 0, don't you think? Sorry mate, we no longer live in feudal times. The minimum wage is here to stay. If employers cannot make money by hiring above the minimum wage, then they need to find another line of work. In the mean time, the displaced employees get the social safety net so no one has to become a serf.
    3 Jan 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    rc

     

    Agree. My take on our current mess is that there is so much guile involved that nobody trusts anyone any more. And numbers are to be spun not examined and plan around.
    3 Jan 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • bbrady413
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    Macro, what is better for the economy- hire one unskilled worker at $9/hour to sweep a floor, or hire two unskilled workers at $5/hour to sweep a floor?

     

    What if somebody comes into a business and offers his floor sweeping service for $5/hour? Should it be illegal to hire him? Or should an employer be able to give the sweeper the wage he is voluntarily looking for?

     

    There are plenty of low skilled workers who have labor skills that are worth less than minimum wage. All a minimum wage law does is tell an employer that it is illegal to hire them. Is there anything more detrimental to the lower classes? Why do you insist on laws that make it illegal to hire low skilled workers?

     

    Don't forget too- generally, jobs that have minimum wage level labor are also selling goods and services to lower income consumers. All a minimum wage does is raise prices on low income consumers.

     

    Again, why do you insist on laws that raise prices for low income consumers, and make it illegal to hire low skill workers?
    3 Jan 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Brady, Trouble is, employers are not going to hire two guys at $5/hour. They will hire the one guy at $5/hour whom they would have otherwise paid $9/hour, and pocket the difference. This assumes, of course, that the floor needs to be sweeped. If not, neither the 5 hour guy nor the 9 hour guy will get a job. So, don't start with false premises. Employers will only hire more than they need to if wages are 0. And when employers need to hire someone, they will p[ay the minimum wage or more. That's the way it works in real life. No employer hires two guys to do one guy's job, unless the wage of the second guy is 0. Employers are not dumb. They want to screw workers but not themselves.
    3 Jan 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • bbrady413
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    You're missing the point Macro, which is that all price controls do is distort the true value of what is being exchanged- in this case, labor. But if you are ok with price controls, including those on labor, why don't we just make minimum wage $25 or $30 per hour and get rid of poverty?
    3 Jan 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Brady, the poverty threshold for a family of 4 in 2012 is $23k. At 2000 hours year and $7.25 minimum wage, that translates to $29k for a dual income family, which is slightly above the poverty threshold.
    3 Jan 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • bbrady413
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    Since when has minimum wage supposed to be able to support a family of 4? It doesn't seem wise to me to have a family of 4 if I'm only making minimum wage. Or is personal responsibility no longer a value that we're supposed to subscribe to?
    3 Jan 2013, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • bbrady413
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    You still never answered my question. Why not make minimum wage $25 or $30 per hour?
    3 Jan 2013, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Brady, you want to control other people's family planning too? You are a real defender of freedom and liberty my friend.
    3 Jan 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Because at $7.25/hour it is already crossing the poverty threshold.
    3 Jan 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    People can have 50 kids for all I care. But they can pay for them.
    3 Jan 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    You really like that Democratic Koolaid. Seems you are suffering from electile dysfunction.

     

    Sorry, but I don't put much credibility on the words of anyone who puts their faith upon politicians, regardless of which flavor of political party they like. Given half a chance, politicians have the ability to screw up markets more than they have any ability to create positive influences, though they are often quite ready to claim they were responsible for gains. Just what exactly did those asshats do for several months to come up with that Fiscal Cliff "deal" that appears like it took 30 minutes to put together?
    3 Jan 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • bbrady413
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    No Macro, I have no interest in planning other people's families or personal lives. They can do whatever they would like. But when a couple has 5 kids and only one working adult making minimum wage, I don't want them interfering with my personal life by demanding my wages via taxes to fund their food stamps, welfare payments, Medicaid, etc etc.

     

    Freedom does not mean free from responsibility.
    3 Jan 2013, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    Because Macro wants to be sure that the poor remain poor, because a dependent society is easier to control, and it fits the model numbers better. Meanwhile he can feel good about himself and get rid of his feelings of guilt by paying slightly higher taxes, even though he makes sure to take every possible deduction to line his own pockets, because every little bit of his taxes is "helping the poor". What he is really doing is exploiting the poor and keeping them in their place, which for him is a profitable endeavor.

     

    http://reut.rs/YZI8SD

     

    All these wonderful regulations, and many with interesting exemptions. Businesses who use temporary workers, part-time workers, or have small work-forces can avoid some payments into the health care system. It should not be any surprise that the temporary and part-time workforce has seen explosive growth. The other set of figures many ignore is that average worker pay has declined. So far no politicians on the left nor the right have put forward any solutions that address the growing inequality and lack of opportunity in the United States. Much of Europe is also heading the same direction, though there are more worker protection laws in many countries there, so it may take longer.
    3 Jan 2013, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Mr Duck, For some reason you are very upset with me. I find it amusing so please keep it up. The fiscal cliff was the best thing ever. It set up the perfect buying opportunity for me.
    3 Jan 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Brady, so you would rather have those 5 kids starve? You compassion has no limits. WWJD?
    3 Jan 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Duck, I agree with you that USA needs more worker protection laws.
    3 Jan 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    "People can have 50 kids for all I care. But they can pay for them. "

     

    Spoken like a person who makes a lot of charitable contributions, indeed. The compassion is clearly showing.
    3 Jan 2013, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    Jesus would not go get a tax collector that is for sure.
    3 Jan 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    What I do directly is my call. And I focus my investment. Look at Gates and Buffet. They are not doing much if anything in the US. Why? Because everyone here is fat and complaining and do not appreciate anything.

     

    You want to see poor. Fly into India at 2:00 a.m. and meet kids begging in the airport with no shoes, dirt from head to foot and missing fingers.

     

    Like a lot of people in the US you don't know anything about poverty but you try to parade around as if you do when you are just an egotistical fool with a keyboard.
    3 Jan 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    My first, second, and third priority is USA and not India.Call me parochial, but I live and vote here, not in some other country. The citizens of other countries have the responsibility to make their countries better, I have the responsibility to make my country better. No single kid should suffer in the richest country in the world.
    3 Jan 2013, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    But would Jesus ask the rich to feed the poor kids?
    3 Jan 2013, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm! Taking your logic to the next level I don't have any affinity to someone in another family never mind another state. I am staying home and fattening up my kids. All the rest of the families have the responsibility to make their family better.

     

    Jesus never asked anyone to give anything other than himself. He only gave. You should follow his example and shut up and start giving.
    3 Jan 2013, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    You may feel that way tom, but as long as you get all the benefits of being a citizen of the United States of America, you have to bear the responsibilities of citizenship as well. Of course, if you were to give up the US Passport and moved elsewhere, you could do what you suggested above. I am not a Christian so I do not have to care about what Jesus said, but people who claim to be followers of Jesus - aka the right wing conservatives - are never really compassionate to their fellow citizens and always whine about having to support the poor. Hence I ask them, WWJD? Trust me, Jesus wouldn't have said cut food stamps for the kids so that the military budget is saved.
    3 Jan 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    Exactly Tomas and I completely agree. A few trips outside the United States might open the eyes of some people.
    3 Jan 2013, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Duck, You think if I travel abroad and see the poor in third world countries it will make me turn Republican, stop wanting to help the poor in the USA, and ask for tax cuts for myself?
    3 Jan 2013, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    You're so clueless, I don't even know where to start. No, I don't want you to be Republican, nor do I give a f8%k that you are a Democrat. If you only see the world as two sides of a coin, then you are no better than anyone else putting forward political rhetoric as the answer to everything. Do you have any original thoughts, or do you just repeat what you hear from politicians?

     

    You also keep trying to create this idea of me in your head that is completely wrong. Maybe it is your inability to understand the nuances of conversation, but it could just be that you are too ignorant to imagine that people can exist in this world without subscribing entirely to some political ideology. F*%k politics and politicians. Do you understand that position?

     

    My position: help poor, but do it in a way that you do not condemn them to remain poor, and keep enough of a safety net that they will take a chance on surviving without entitlements; next up fix the tax code to enact a flat tax without any deductions. There is no need for radical changes, and changes can be phased in over time in a way that will create lasting economic growth in line with population growth.
    3 Jan 2013, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    I think I want better for America's poor than mere surviving. Why do you want them to just survive? Sounds like they are animals or something from how you talk about them. They are humans, no?

     

    Why flat tax? That's rather regressive, you know?

     

    Anyway, what would I learn from watching the poor in the rest of the world?
    3 Jan 2013, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • marketwatcher23
    , contributor
    Comments (935) | Send Message
     
    You need to give the poor a reason to get off their ass and make something of themselves. What is wrong with having them collect their unemployment and have them show up every week and clean their neighborhood or do something that contributes to their community?
    3 Jan 2013, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    And displace the people who clean the community today and make poors out of those folks?

     

    By the way, who do you think works harder in America? The poor or someone like you and me?
    3 Jan 2013, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • marketwatcher23
    , contributor
    Comments (935) | Send Message
     
    There is a difference between a low wage earning poor person and someone who gets a chck from the gov't and does nothing to actually earn it. There is plenty of room to find something for them to do and not displace other people.

     

    I think people who work, in whatever capacity, and contribute to society are all equal in terms of how hard they work. Except wall street crooks and union thugs.
    3 Jan 2013, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    " There is a difference between a low wage earning poor person and someone who gets a chck from the gov't and does nothing to actually earn it."

     

    Everyone who worked paid unemployment insurance. They did something to get unemployment benefits.

     

    "There is plenty of room to find something for them to do and not displace other people."

     

    Yet unemployment is far above historical norms. If only it were so easy.
    3 Jan 2013, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • marketwatcher23
    , contributor
    Comments (935) | Send Message
     
    well I would argue with our first point but I would rather focus on your second.

     

    Technology is going to displace a lot of people and you can throw in a population bubble to boot. You seem like an altruistic dude but the problem with socialism is ot only works until you run out of other people's money. We are all going to go broke trying to carry everyone. Nature is nasty and laws of physics can be very unpleasant.
    3 Jan 2013, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    So what do we do with those that we can't carry, MW? Let them starve and die?
    3 Jan 2013, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • marketwatcher23
    , contributor
    Comments (935) | Send Message
     
    How about we start by not subsidizing having kids?

     

    we all know what happens when you subsidize something right? I have one child. I can't afford another. I would love to have another but I had to make a difficult choice, Should I have 5 more and send you the bill?
    3 Jan 2013, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    What if people still have them? What happens to those kids?
    3 Jan 2013, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • marketwatcher23
    , contributor
    Comments (935) | Send Message
     
    what happens in life if you make bad choices?

     

    Bad things.

     

    "But the kids did not ask for this"

     

    I know. But neither did I, and I have my own family to support.

     

    Go ahead macro, you don't lack for a reply. Let's play this out.
    3 Jan 2013, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Are food stamps for poor kids making you unable to support your family?
    3 Jan 2013, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • marketwatcher23
    , contributor
    Comments (935) | Send Message
     
    The welfare system is, yes.

     

    Do all food stamps go to making sure kids get food? Can you guarantee me that?

     

    How about answering my question. Why not stop subsidizing having kids? Yes some people will continue to have them, and it will be a difficult thing to deal with. But why not stop it.

     

    Do federal workers ( I am on NY) need to retire at 50-55 with 100k pensions and free healthcare? Perhaps they can shoulder some of the burden with a cut in benefits?
    3 Jan 2013, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    I don't think anyone is subsidizing having kids. I think people are subsidizing the kids themselves once they are born. I think investing in kids is the best investment a nation can make.

     

    I don't know if only the kids get food from food stamps. I am sure there us fraud. But I would rather put up with fraud than have a single kid go to bed hungry.

     

    If you are unable to support your family because of taxes, then you should qualify for EITC and food stamps and Section 8 housing. Did you look into that? I am sorry to hear it by the way. It is no fun. I am surprised, however, that you are still asked to pay taxes when you are unable to support your kids.

     

    I am not a fan of big pensions. But we were talking about the social safety net. It is there for you as well. I encourage you to take advantage of it.
    3 Jan 2013, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • marketwatcher23
    , contributor
    Comments (935) | Send Message
     
    "I don't think anyone is subsidizing having kids. I think people are subsidizing the kids themselves once they are born"

     

    there is no difference.

     

    The social safety net is unsustainable. It can't be paid for. You are going to bankrupt everyone trying to do so.

     

    How are we investing in kids? Have you gone to east NY and seen these kids that are ther product of people looking for a few bucks from the gubbamint in exchange for having them? Where is the "investment" you speak of?
    3 Jan 2013, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • bbrady413
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    Market, you or somebody else said it- he has these altruistic notions that are funded by other people's money. He says that he would rather everybody pay more so those 5 kids that are being neglected and abused by their parents don't have to go to bed hungry. What he fails to realize is that if everybody had 5 kids with the assumption that it would be paid for by everyone else, the system would be thrown out of balance. Really when it comes down to it, who has more right to have 5 kids? The people paying the bills, or the people paying none of them?

     

    Macro is part of the the societal surge that wants to remove all responsibility from the individual and place it squarely on the back of society. What he doesn't seem to realize is that if enough do that, you end up with everybody in the wagon, and nobody to pull it.
    4 Jan 2013, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • marketwatcher23
    , contributor
    Comments (935) | Send Message
     
    You end up with Detroit, which Macro said sounds like a bad place. Irony.
    4 Jan 2013, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • WisPokerGuy
    , contributor
    Comments (747) | Send Message
     
    My "free" market advice (you get what you pay for) is this:

     

    I think the market probably rally's pretty hard for the next few days... maybe a week. Then tops out until earnings season starts full-bore. Selected stocks will almost certainly move higher (Apple?) but in general, earnings will be lukewarm at best. At that point, the market will revert to this past November's scenario - up... then down... then back up... then back down. Get the picture? This whole nightmare isn't over yet by any means.

     

    I own several long-calls that are in the money and plan to pare those positions in the next few weeks. I'm also raising cash by selling this anticipated market upswing and preparing myself to buy the bargains that will inevitably result from the Debt Ceiling negotiations in March. Buying the VXX during this period certainly worked out in December and I don't see why it won't work again. Investors (and traders) have been presented with an opportunity to get long and then go short here. I would personally take advantage of it.

     

    Just my .02
    2 Jan 2013, 01:11 AM Reply Like
  • TakeFive
    , contributor
    Comments (5108) | Send Message
     
    Poker.... while I won't disagree, I would suggest that more than actual earnings, investors will be highly sensitive and reactive to forward predictions and optimism or lack thereof. Not sure how that plays out.
    2 Jan 2013, 04:21 AM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (1523) | Send Message
     
    By now we should all realize the republican cheap trick of fear-mongering - on every issue ( from starting wars to bailing out wall street to deficits). people need to start ignoring this tactic - it is deeply dishonest and corrosive to our great nation - one of the reasons it is great is people are generally hopeful about the future , optimistic and therefore take business risks. All this fear mongering is terribly destructive - specially to kids.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    I disagree. The fear mongering creates great buying opportunities.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:22 AM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    RS

     

    You mean like Bloomberg fear mongering 20 oz cokes in NYC? Or granny being pushed off the cliff?

     

    You are either stupid or so biased you don't see all politicians have done it for thousands of years. Wake up.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:30 AM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (1523) | Send Message
     
    hah! yes of course. I completely agree and have been following your advice even before you gave it!
    2 Jan 2013, 01:34 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    So let's see. On one hand we have a 20 oz coke glass. On the other we have cutting off unemployment insurance for 2M Americans.

     

    I would say the coke glass is far more important to American freedom and Liberty and the Constitution. And likely the World series too.

     

    Vote Tea Party!
    2 Jan 2013, 01:35 AM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (1523) | Send Message
     
    OK Iam up!
    2 Jan 2013, 01:38 AM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (1523) | Send Message
     
    Yes I agree - I clearly remember that nasty affair with a fellow called Caligula - oh about 2000 years ago.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:40 AM Reply Like
  • TakeFive
    , contributor
    Comments (5108) | Send Message
     
    Macro.... haha, "great buying opportunities" working well for me indeed. Nov. 14th was a fine day to "back up my truck."
    2 Jan 2013, 04:16 AM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    MI

     

    I am just examining a mindset but to complete the picture and show you the depth of stupidity involved. People have free refills on their coke so you can give them a shot glass and they would just go back 20 times.

     

    Government and government lap dogs know so little of what really goes on in the real world it is downright funny. And scary.
    2 Jan 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • bbrady413
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    You nailed it Tomas, the depth of stupidity involved. Idiots like Bloomberg and his cheerleaders think that they're combatting diabetes and obesity with limiting the size of sodas that can be sold. What they don't seem to realize is that people will still do what they want. For example, they'll buy several 12 ounce sodas, as opposed to a giant 32 ounce soda, which is cheaper for the consumer, more efficient for the business, and good for both parties involved in that private transaction. It all has to do with the law of unintended consequences. Now, a consumer may only buy one 12 ounce soda, which will hurt the business selling them. What does the business have to do then? Raise their pricecs on soda. Now, maybe the patron doesn't buy a bag of chips at their local takeout restaurant because the soda costs too much. The restaurant decreases their inventory of chips, affecting the chip distributor. The chip distributor isn't making as many deliveries, so they lay off a driver. That driver now is in a pinch for work, along with other drivers in similar situations, so with the increase in labor supply, wages go down. Wages go down, and the drivers can't afford soda. They also need to rely more on food stamps, so taxes increase on everybody. Now, the tax base has less discretionary income, so demand decreases. Before you know it, we're in a recession.

     

    I know, this is a bit of an extreme example, but you all get the point. Even the smallest of government regulations can have far reaching consequences. And that is just on soda. Imagine what happens when bigger regulations are put on job creators. Yikes!
    3 Jan 2013, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • marketwatcher23
    , contributor
    Comments (935) | Send Message
     
    You guys are making very interesting points. I would only add that it is possible that government is not that stupid. Take the 20oz cokes and throw in the warrantless wiretapping etc. etc. and how slowly freedoms are being taken away and perhaps this dystopian nightmare is no accident.
    3 Jan 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Teutonic Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (1988) | Send Message
     
    100% exactly as I predicted, a head flake solution + kicking the can down the road.

     

    Surprised?

     

    No, none at all; just amazed! Bunch of Chickens do Little
    2 Jan 2013, 01:49 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Kudrna
    , contributor
    Comments (224) | Send Message
     
    Canada has similar issues in 90's. They cut spending $7 to $1 tax increase and grew jobs during the dotcom bust. They are now fiscally responsible and able to take on whatever problems come their way without an already burdened fundamentals.

     

    The US on the other hand, does not balance the budget and instead has a fiscal cliff deal of over $43 in tax increases to every $1 in spending cuts.

     

    Logical....very logical.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:06 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    You think they should have raised taxes even more? In general I agree but I wouldn't do it in the middle of a recession.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:18 AM Reply Like
  • TakeFive
    , contributor
    Comments (5108) | Send Message
     
    No relevance betweeen Canada in the 90's and the U.S. after the popping of a huge real estate and financial bubble. Thanks for trying though.
    2 Jan 2013, 04:12 AM Reply Like
  • bbrady413
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    Michael does make a valid point though. This country is so screwed up that we just raised taxes to a degree that will punish success, and for what? Funding the government for a few days. And the politicians didn't cut spending, they raised it.

     

    Sad sad times.
    2 Jan 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Kudrna
    , contributor
    Comments (224) | Send Message
     
    bbrady:

     

    If we had a 300 billion dollar deficit....increasing taxes is a very reasonable request. You know that the taxes will be used to fix that small hole. Increasing taxes becomes a very logical solution when the deficit is realistically manageable.

     

    However, we average a 1.3 to 1.6 trillion dollar deficit which is manipulated lower due to record low interest rates making our interest payments appear lower than they will be in the near future (can't get rates low forever). This requires immediate and strong action to remedy! No business, I REPEAT, not one single business could survive with such fundamentals. Not one single bank would entertain such an idea of loaning money to a financial structure like this...but because we are the Reserve Currency, we found a bank willing to give us money so we can feed the beast more and more. That may not be the case in 10-15 years as other countries would prefer we lose our Reserve status. Just wait until our bond market starts to dictate our grim future because we are NOT ACTING now! Then the real cuts will happen...and those will be unmerciful. All because we did not act like adults right now, take our medicine today, put us in a short-term recession and bounce out of it with a vengeance fixing the path we are on and brightening our future.

     

    To demand that anyone pay more money on a 1.3 to 1.6 (technically higher) trillion dollar deficit resembles a blind dictatorship. To demand any citizen pay more money into a deficit that is exactly the same as a "black hole" where the money will NOT be useful and will NOT actually fix the deficit is illogical and frankly morally wrong. This comes from someone who is not a Repub, but I lean more and more to that side on this issue as these smoke and mirror discussions happen (tax the rich = save america) are the discussion of lemmings.
    3 Jan 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    MK

     

    I say let the math tell the story and let the policy be formed from it versus random emotions and policies that make matters worse. If all Americans could see the math they would be on the same page with the exception of some whackos.
    3 Jan 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Kudrna
    , contributor
    Comments (224) | Send Message
     
    TVP:

     

    Unfortunately the economists are claiming they are the Mathematicians and economists are the same as meteorologists. They screw up all the time, one says rain, one says sun, they continue to claim expertise AND still have a job after they screw up.

     

    They are akin to the stock trader that made one single good call in his career that he will remind you of every single day while not keeping track of the 99% of bad calls he made that are swept under the rug.
    3 Jan 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Michael, When do you think people who made a million bad calls on high inflation and high interest rates in the USA coming any day now will shut up? My gut says, never.
    3 Jan 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • fafatooey
    , contributor
    Comments (345) | Send Message
     
    Hang tight, everybody. The republicans have the ace card. Without significant spending cuts, they will NOT vote for a debt cieling increase. That will be coming up shortly, and that is when we will get our cuts.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Let's fast forward 2 months, shall we? The market is down in anticipation of an US default. Republicans want entitlement cuts, otherwise they will let USA default and not raise the debt ceiling. Economy on the verge of calamity. Obama gets on the horn and tells the nation, unless I allow grandma to be thrown on the street, Republicans will play partisan politics and cause the default of our great nation.

     

    Who do you think will blink? What does the past week tell you?
    2 Jan 2013, 02:16 AM Reply Like
  • RS055
    , contributor
    Comments (1523) | Send Message
     
    Why do you think sharp spending cuts will be so great? It will bring on a recession. Kind of like using leeches to suck out the bad blood - when an asprin will do the trick!
    2 Jan 2013, 02:17 AM Reply Like
  • TakeFive
    , contributor
    Comments (5108) | Send Message
     
    Playing politics with the debt ceiling is NOT a good political strategy unless your strategy is to lose more public and voter support.
    2 Jan 2013, 04:10 AM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    What does August 2011 tell you?
    2 Jan 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    That Republicans will predictably roll over.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    I think I am fine with Republicans losing public and voter support.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • fafatooey
    , contributor
    Comments (345) | Send Message
     
    Actually, I think the Republicans do make a stand this time. Gut feeling. We shall see.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    In case you missed it, this is an investing forum. I don't care how politicians poll. I care about market movements and take advantage of opportunities. If the U.S. sees one party dominance at any point in the future, it will follow the path of Zimbabwe. I think it would be far better for a strong and viable third party to appear, though once again I don't expect such an event to significantly alter market direction. I don't guide the portfolios I manage based upon political swings.

     

    Despite the S&P Ratings gaffs about reducing the credit rating of the United States in 2011, there is potential that we will hear about a downgrade or ratings outlook change from Moody's or Fitch. While the Federal Reserve is currently monetizing sovereign debt for the U.S., they are also partially distorting the markets. Part of the worry in that is how that affects Money Markets. Of course with many major economies actively devaluing their currencies, it's a race to see who can push faster. Anyway, a ratings downgrade would prompt a revue of major corporations credit worthiness, with potential for corporate downgrades, meaning increased borrowing costs for many corporations. That would prompt more slowing. Some corporations are flush with cash, so they are not in a position to need to borrow much, so as always there will be some winners and some losers.

     

    I don't think politicians will push for a willful default, but just getting up to the limit absolutely will affect stock markets, and bond markets. Markets have been psychotic and headline driven for months. We also have Basel III to watch for towards 2018, meaning the process of deleveraging will continue.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    "I don't think politicians will push for a willful default, but just getting up to the limit absolutely will affect stock markets, and bond markets. Markets have been psychotic and headline driven for months."

     

    Like I said, Republicans will talk tough and then fold. So the market rallies for 6 weeks, sells off for 2 weeks when we first sell and then buy right before the brink, and again party like it is 1999 all over again.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    " Actually, I think the Republicans do make a stand this time. Gut feeling. We shall see. "

     

    Zero chance. As a Dem Congressman said last night when Republicans were whining about not passing the Senate Bill, they are crazy but not batshit crazy.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    OK since everyone is making predictions here goes:

     

    1. We will not address our debt drivers like SSA and Medicare until the markets revolt. That could be in 1 month or 5 or 10 years. When the entitlements start peaking we will certainly be taking major hits to the budget. Once we reach that flash point the changes it will drive will be breathtaking and out of our control. Either we will raise rates or our currency will be in free fall. This is very hard to predict like most things that need to be fixed but are ignored.
    2. Spending cuts will only be tied to further tax increases as more and more voters will be sucked into the maw of tax and spend or I guess we should say spend and tax. This will give political cover to say that politicians are responsible and everyone is going to have pain.
    3. The debt limit discussion will only be as big as the events around it. If we have some serious issues going on then it could get nasty but otherwise it will be noisy and then get raised at the last second so we can do it again in a year or so.

     

    Until we have a Pearl Harbor we are not going to do much. Then we go into rationing and all kinds of hardship. Seems kind of exciting doesn't it? All the rest of this furor is political BS as both parties by their actions survive on spending directly or indirectly.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • marketwatcher23
    , contributor
    Comments (935) | Send Message
     
    The "republicans" are Rino's. Thats why they always roll over. There is only one party.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    If the market was as certain as you appear to be, then we would not have a dip. I think we will have a dip, even more so because the debt ceiling will usher in another round of can kicking.
    2 Jan 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • marketwatcher23
    , contributor
    Comments (935) | Send Message
     
    we get a dip if the bernak wants a dip. Otherwise there is no dip.
    2 Jan 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Tom, Don't give up on me yet. There is always hope that Republicans will try to blackmail the country into cutting the social safety net. We do need a Dem House and for that we need the Republicans going on a spending cut rampage.
    2 Jan 2013, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    MI

     

    This whole thing has become a theater up to the real events and it is kind of funny. We are going through distortions trying to avoid reality and people cheer leading for their teams like any of them really matter.
    2 Jan 2013, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • bbrady413
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    The sad part is (and I can't believe I'm saying this) is that MI is actually right. The Republicans have proven that they are absolutely spineless, and will try to hold out for cuts, and then roll over at the last minute, because they're too afraid of being blamed by the mainstream media. They should change their name to the Jellyfish Party.
    2 Jan 2013, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    Brady, Have I been ever wrong throughout this fiscal cliff nonsense?
    2 Jan 2013, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • bbrady413
    , contributor
    Comments (757) | Send Message
     
    Depends on what we're talking about. You were wrong about the nonsense about the Tea Party starving orphans to buy fighter jets, but lets not open that Pandora's Box again and completely derail from the main discussion.
    2 Jan 2013, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • Macro Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (7142) | Send Message
     
    LOL, you know that I was right on that one. You read the bill.
    2 Jan 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • kingdoms333
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Hard to call....but....it will gap higher and could very well be a 'bear trap'..........the trading adage.......buy the rumor....and sell the fact!.....this market has been holding very firm in the face of not too good looking fundamentals in industry.......probably best to watch the action tomorrow and a few days. I think the markets will now start looking at the bad fundamentals..nothing has changed in the consumers mind. Same high unemployment, ObamaCare kicking in and no one knows what these costs are going to be...etc...etc......can't see much 'positive' information to see an S&P going to the 1500 area. We all know that this country is looking at $ 20 Trillion Debt load at the end of this socialist president.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:12 AM Reply Like
  • ryhendohi
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Going short on this rally.....
    2 Jan 2013, 02:13 AM Reply Like
  • pman6
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    Everyone is going to pretend to be happy, temporarily. Fiscal cliff mostly averted.

     

    I've seen profits wiped out over the last 2 months because of this stupid fiscal cliff.

     

    Now, there has to be a recovery rally to undo part of that damage.

     

    I'm loading up on some oversold stocks and cashing out shortly.
    2 Jan 2013, 04:13 AM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (2345) | Send Message
     
    They just kicked the can down the road for the new congress to deal with in the upcoming spring debt ceiling battles. Boehner's done as speaker. Cantor will be the next speaker, that guy is a special kind of snake
    2 Jan 2013, 04:49 AM Reply Like
  • Rookie IRA Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2537) | Send Message
     
    Interesting take from The Guardian:

     

    Let's now remove eight zeros and pretend it is a household budget:

     

    Annual family income: $21,700

     

    Money the family spent: $38,200

     

    New debt on the credit card: $16,500

     

    Outstanding credit card balance: $142,710

     

    Total household budget cuts so far: $38.50
    3 Jan 2013, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Teutonic Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (1988) | Send Message
     
    Rookie IRA investor:

     

    I see you point. But I would venture a guess.

     

    There is a missing piece in the story being told of the family household.

     

    This particular household behaving so foolishly as it does, thinks that they have an unsealed inheritance envelope from their uncle (Uncle Sam) for a ranch of 500 million acres of farmland and developed areas!

     

    So they just continue with their reckless spending unabated.

     

    LOL!
    3 Jan 2013, 09:49 PM Reply Like
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