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Deutsche's U.S. team follows up on an overnight note from the firm's Japanese unit about iPhone...

Deutsche's U.S. team follows up on an overnight note from the firm's Japanese unit about iPhone production cuts by declaring Apple's (AAPL -2%) stock "has digested this supply chain issue and likely has lower unit production already priced in." Notable Calls is encouraged by this due to the track record of the analyst in question (presumably Chris Whitmore). Apple has bounced a little off its session lows. Cirrus Logic (CRUS -3.8%) and Skyworks (SWKS -2.9%) are faring worse.
Comments (27)
  • If I understand this, we will see reduced orders for the iPhone 5 in the next quarter which starts in March. So maybe this info punctuates the real possibility of an iPhone 6 hitting in that time frame. New orders going for that product instead.
    4 Jan 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • It should not be a surprise to anyone that follows Apple to see an estimated 30% iphone reduction sales/order for the quarter following the holiday quarter (Oct.-Dec.).
    4 Jan 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • I'd wondered about that same issue: as well as coming off a launch quarter where the loading up in anticipation of large initial demand would not be the sustainable steady state volume. Less so the issue of another transition, that would be wildly early for either a miniS or a iPhone 5s or 6... in my estimation of things.


    The almost yearly "confusion" of the seasonality and episodic nature of the product stream is disappointing.
    4 Jan 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • That makes perfect sense to lower orders off of the Christmas high, and given that people tend to wait on the purchases when a new model is expected. It's also possible that they are shifting suppliers, you never know.
    4 Jan 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Investors should be weary of underestimating Appel's perennial introduction of successful new products -- lots of stuff is in the works and the current relatively beaten-down stock price will significantly jump. I say this with supreme confidence. Incidentally, my last prediction -- also made with supreme confidence -- was that Romney would beat Obama.
    4 Jan 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • There is so much "gossip" about Apple, why believe of these research firms. How creditable are they ? They love to beat down Apple as they are very jealous, compare Apple profits to these other firms ! They are fearful of innovators, what new ideas have they come up with ...
    4 Jan 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Market manipulation at it's finest!
    4 Jan 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Japanese DB team releases a note saying order cuts in PM.


    US DB team releases a note saying order cuts issue digested after coming off the LOD.


    Yeah, that's not manipulation. /sarcasm


    1. Short stock
    2. Release negative note
    3. Cover shorts. Go long stock.
    4. Release positive note saying negative rumor has been fully digested.


    Total BS.
    4 Jan 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • nice dab3z
    4 Jan 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • I would take these reports with a huge grain of salt...remember that we also have "supply chain China checks" saying Apple's Foxconn team is being paid overtime to work throughout the Chinese NY to make iPhone 5s! I doubt Apple and Foxconn will pay overtime to meet the insatiable demand if volume is dropping by 30%. Who knows what to believe. I have seen several reports in the last three days that look very, very questionable.
    4 Jan 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Humble, just playing devil's advocate here, but wouldn't Foxconn pay overtime over New year's in any case, since it is a holiday?
    4 Jan 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • They would, but they are normally closed and production stops. The news stories were that they will keep some lines open to produce iP5s and minis. The overtime could obviously be avoided if supply was really too high, as this story seems to indicate. Here is a report from a Forbes blog that commented on it:
    4 Jan 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • If the sales expectation is low why should they plan to work on holidays.
    4 Jan 2013, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • Biggest and best American company that the AAPL haters love to bash...It's really sad that a report like this (Deutsche's Japansese subsidiary) has a huge effect on the stock price. Bad news has a big impact on the stock price over the past 5 months while 30 good reports go unnoticed. I worry that blowout earnings will do little to move this stock unless Cook gives great forward guidance, which is unlikely. He doesn't do this company justice with his ho-hum representational and presentation skills. He needs to talk it up big and forego the humble pie crap!
    4 Jan 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • This is Apple, so any negative news is magnified. Its only the positive news that is shrugged off as unimportant.
    4 Jan 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • I just do not understand how come APPLE does not communicate with analysts . They lost 200 BILLIONS dollars by not issuing any comment on the crazy rumors going on for 2 months now. This is equivalent to the debt of GREECE . There are no excuses unless those rumors are correct or else this is a very incompetent management and board. Therefore I decided to short APPLE . Right here.
    Stop defending APPLE with your comments . Anyone defending APPLE is most probably a hiding short looking for pop ups to short again.
    4 Jan 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Trying to beat the price down for buyers anticipating a blow out quarterly earnings--
    4 Jan 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Stock price being pushed down so that buyers can enter AAPL at a lower price anticipating a great earnings report which will push the stock up.
    4 Jan 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • I'm not so sure that Apple will beat 1Q13 analysts' estimate because these are based only on assumptions not facts. But, IMHO Apple will beat his guidance. they always do that. The most important thing will be their 2Q13 guidance.
    It will take 1 to 2 year before investors get used to the New Apple.
    A single digit gross combined with good dividende.
    4 Jan 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • " beat 1Q13 analysts' estimate"


    And they keep moving them so it's not like there's a static target that got set when Apple held their last earnings call.
    4 Jan 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Can anyone explain to me why the market believes a one trick pony like Google is worth more than $200 a share than Apple? What am I missing? And why so little analyst criticism of Google?
    4 Jan 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Share price is relative to the number of shares outstanding. Look at Market Cap to see how the market values one company relative to another. Apple is the highest valued company. That's why they get more criticism.
    4 Jan 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Multiply the # of shares by each share price to figure the worth of each company: AAPL & GOOG
    4 Jan 2013, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • IT'S PRICED IN, stupid !...
    4 Jan 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • That was a thoughtful reply. Thanks. I'm sure you have just as much intelligent commentary on the lack of criticism. Are you short Apple or long Google?
    4 Jan 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • I am long aapl. I have had buy orders in below the market. If the stock falls, I am delighted.
    7 Jan 2013, 02:03 AM Reply Like
  • Earnings season is upon us. It will soon be time for Analysts to stop their manipulation of share price with their latest and greatest reports from "trusted sources". They cannot manipulate earnings reports! Time to shut up for a month
    10 Jan 2013, 02:48 AM Reply Like
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