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The ferocity of the recent reversal in the VIX (VXX) - from 20% above its 10-day moving average...

The ferocity of the recent reversal in the VIX (VXX) - from 20% above its 10-day moving average to 20% below within a month - has occurred just 4 other times going back to 1990, writes Adam Warner. Is it a tell? Unfortunately not likely, says Warner, as no pattern is evident from the previous instances.
Comments (8)
  • Jeff Hartzer
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    The only pattern with VXX evident to me especially in last three years, is that it FALLS more rapidly than it rises. The recent REVERSE SPLIT was a horrible thing for those holding VXX at the time. My opinion of course as a great big VXX 'loser'. When VXX hit 37 recently, I should have sold all of my shares (still at a large loss for me)...My personal history with VXX is a long one and don't tell me to not hold long. Too late for that. The Japanese Tsunami of water and financial ruin killed thousands but VXX was 'high' afterwards...Must we wait for a real Mayan Asteroid to be saved from the rigors of VXX? Hope not.
    8 Jan 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • kjkoprowski
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Need to look at UVXY with the MFI Indicator. I set it up with a 5 day parameter. You'll see that over the past few months several times it will touch zero, time to buy, and as soon as it hits 80 ( overbought) it sells.
    Just bought again at zero. Let me know what you think.
    9 Jan 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • MarcJoli
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    I see that VVIX (the VIX of VX) dropped to a multi-year low, an extreme low, at the same time as VIX dropped. This one means that VIX options players are not willing to bid up the costs on Jan and Feb month VIX options contracts (calls and puts).

     

    From other commentary I have heard, it looks like the VIX options players are more interested in playing with March and April options at the moment.

     

    Who knows if they are right or wrong , but assuming this is smart money, I think it means we have weeks or a month of "all clear" for the market bulls and volatility shorters.
    8 Jan 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Managing
    , contributor
    Comments (252) | Send Message
     
    Contago kills VXX. The product is worthless. Better to trade VIX options directly.
    8 Jan 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • samrush
    , contributor
    Comments (115) | Send Message
     
    but if a crash is on the way it will the best investment
    9 Jan 2013, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • Laurent1962
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    VXX has a negative Slope for sure and must only be bought Days before a major Earthquake .....
    8 Jan 2013, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • lovermann
    , contributor
    Comments (63) | Send Message
     
    but when comes the earthquake?
    9 Jan 2013, 01:50 AM Reply Like
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (8150) | Send Message
     
    Isn't XVZ the least bad of the pure vol ETNs?
    16 Jan 2013, 03:21 PM Reply Like
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