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Verizon Wireless (VZ, VOD) says it expect to report 9.8M smartphone activations, "with a higher...

Verizon Wireless (VZ, VOD) says it expect to report 9.8M smartphone activations, "with a higher mix of Apple smartphones," for Q4. That figure is up 29% from the 7.7M smartphones activated a year ago, and 44% from the 6.8M activated in Q3 (46% of them were iPhones). Verizon's Y/Y growth rate is easily above that of AT&T (T - previous), which is more iPhone-dependent, but its Q/Q rate is slower. The smartphone sales, together with strong indirect channel growth, will lead to a slight Y/Y drop in EBITDA service margin. VZ -0.5%. AAPL -0.7%. (CEO remarks: I, II) Update: Verizon PR tells Seeking Alpha the iPhone mix was higher relative to both Q3 (46% of smartphone sales) and Q4 2011 (56%).
Comments (22)
  • nfultz1
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    That's roughly 1 million more iPhones this year versus the same quarter last year.
    9 Jan 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • bgold1955
    , contributor
    Comments (2095) | Send Message
     
    Nfultz1..... What would be your guess on overall iPhone sales?
    9 Jan 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Applocrat
    , contributor
    Comments (972) | Send Message
     
    Assuming the same ratio of iPhone's to non iPhones
    9 Jan 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • nfultz1
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    "with a higher mix of Apple smartphones,"

     

    That would imply at least 51% iPhones, which would represent about 700K more iPhones. If they sold 56% iPhones as they did in 2011 it would be over 1 million. That's why I said "roughly 1 million more."
    9 Jan 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • bgold1955
    , contributor
    Comments (2095) | Send Message
     
    Didn't know % ly, so approximately 5.5m overall.
    9 Jan 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Applocrat
    , contributor
    Comments (972) | Send Message
     
    thanks, we could probably estimate a little more by comparing market share and size of market year over year. AT&T when they reported said they sold a record number of iPhones but they only sold a few houndred thousand more phones in total y/y so with Verizon being the other major carrier, we might guess that a high proportion of Verizon iPhones are driving the market share increase.
    9 Jan 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • bgold1955
    , contributor
    Comments (2095) | Send Message
     
    VZ & T iPhone sales guessestimate for holiday qtr = 11.5 to 12.5m. Lets see what analysts have to say later in day.
    9 Jan 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • bgold1955
    , contributor
    Comments (2095) | Send Message
     
    Correction - VZ = 5.5m estimate; T = 8m estimate which is 13 - 14m estimate. For what it's worth, LY, VZ & T represented 31% of all iPhones sold.
    9 Jan 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • jeborte
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    And wasn't last year's quarter one week longer?
    9 Jan 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • aperture1
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    That was Apple's quarter not VZ's.
    9 Jan 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Piero A.
    , contributor
    Comments (336) | Send Message
     
    A monster Apple Blow out quarter is coming. I can't wait to see everyone rush to buy the stock after earnings are released. You have to be crazy not to buy the stock right here...right now!
    9 Jan 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • MAdeelA
    , contributor
    Comments (62) | Send Message
     
    Blow out quarter may be coming. I am not holding my breath for any rush to buy the stock by anyone.
    9 Jan 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4895) | Send Message
     
    Kantar Worldpanel Comtech announced that aapl has reached a 53.3 percent smartphone share in the U.S. over the 12 week period ending Nov. 25 due to strong sales of the iPhone 5, passing the 50 percent mark for the first time.

     

    This statistic is up from last year’s aggregate figure of 35.8 percent. It is also believed that there is still room for Apple to claim a larger percentage in the next quarter. In contrast, Android’s U.S. market share fell to 41.9 percent from last year’s figure of 52.9 percent.
    9 Jan 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • Tylerdurden7331
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    The SEC filing did not say if the higher share was based on the December 2011 quarter (56% Apple share) or the September 2012 quarter (46% share).
    9 Jan 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • SA Editor Eric Jhonsa
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    That's a good point. Will try to get in touch with Verizon to get clarification.
    9 Jan 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • nfultz1
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    I did wonder the same thing. It would be good to get clarification from Verizon. Thank you.
    9 Jan 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • SA Editor Eric Jhonsa
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    Got a response, it's higher both Q/Q and Y/Y. Updated the post to make note of it.
    9 Jan 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • nfultz1
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    So that means at least 1 million more iPhones were sold by VZ Y/Y.
    9 Jan 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • dorin tabacaru
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    the best way to invest in apple now is a long pending position (buy stop) upper than SMA 50 DAY (now at 549 and decreasing 2 per day probably around 530 before earnings)....
    so if you put a buy stop at 535 lets say before the earnings and the earnings wil be very good (which is most probably) when the market will open next day at 560-580 you can take the difference...
    9 Jan 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • lh2soda
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    moral of the story for Apple management:
    - sell more iPhones than before, share price sells off.
    - sell less iPhones, share price might rally.
    9 Jan 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Michael O'Neill
    , contributor
    Comments (298) | Send Message
     
    I live in Asia and travel between Thailand, Singapore and HK. I follow Apple and the retailers and Apple stores all report the last three months have been there best ever period. No actual numbers but in all three locations they estimate a 40-50% increase qtr on qtr. They said the iPhone 5 and iPad Mini have been star performers.

     

    I can not wait to see the earnings. It will be a beat for sure as the estimates are pretty low.
    10 Jan 2013, 03:10 AM Reply Like
  • dividend_growth
    , contributor
    Comments (2895) | Send Message
     
    Another clue: VZ said during the CES that shares of LTE phones rose from 15% to 23% during the quarter. Verizon has 92 million postpaid subscribers at the end of the quarter.
    10 Jan 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
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