Seeking Alpha

More than any other market in the world, gold is best analyzed technically, says (technician)...

More than any other market in the world, gold is best analyzed technically, says (technician) Peter Brandt. His charts tell him the metal's 15-month sideways action could be setting the stage for a major advance. Maybe not yet though, as there's good reason to believe the flattish activity could continue for many more months.
From other sites
Comments (10)
  • linenoise
    , contributor
    Comments (215) | Send Message
     
    So the best technically analyzed commodity is either set to do something, or nothing.

     

    Technical analysis. WOW.
    9 Jan 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • blmcapital
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Gold is gonna do what it's gonna do when it's gonna do it--no matter what
    9 Jan 2013, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Dave Shelton
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    Technical analysis isn't much better than the 'talking heads' on CNBC. Maybe the markets will go up or they may go down. Oh, really!
    9 Jan 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • stopthe
    , contributor
    Comments (196) | Send Message
     
    I'm going to make an equally useful prediction, that gold will eventually go down in price. I'm just not sure when. But someday, fersure, it will.

     

    On your marks, get set, trade.
    9 Jan 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Greenhills
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    So it could go higher or could go lower. Isn't the current trend lower? So maybe it's going to break out lower. I don't understand the argument being made. If you look at the fundamentals of gold it's had a good run up in value in the last decade. This was driven by the dot.com bust initially and then accelerated by the financial crisis. It can't rise for ever therefore at some point will most likely fall back to the longer term average prices. As an investment it doesn't actually do anything. Gold sits in bank vaults and get's traded back and forth between buyers and sellers. This is in contrast to bonds that pay interest and stocks that invest money in corporations that can use that money to generate profits.
    So if people begin to believe that gold isn't rising in price any more buyers will dry up and sellers will take over. i.e. driving the price down. In addition gold is dug up from the ground. If the price is high for a sustained period we see more mines come on line and more supply. I believe we're starting to see all these trends play out.

     

    I do agree there is a pattern there in the technical analysis - it will be interesting to see if it breaks out lower as I predict or higher as you predict.
    9 Jan 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • whaddyamean?
    , contributor
    Comments (514) | Send Message
     
    Let's seeeeee.... If I am capable of understanding such deep technical analysis, I gather that gold is all set to reach for the stars although perhaps not in my lifetime, since it may continue to move sideways "for many more months". A devastatingly complete technical analysis of this type would allow for the possibility that gold might drop in price as well, thereby covering all three possible scenarios (up, down, sideways). Then, no matter what happens, Master Technician Peter Brandt would be able to trumpet: "I told you so!" with withering authority. And, for this he needs charts! Why, oh why can't I get a paying job like this???
    9 Jan 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Dave Shelton
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    You make a great point. This is like Jim Cramer on CNBC. No matter what a particular asset does, Cramer always says "Told ya!" Remember Facebook? It was shameful to watch him take credit for predicting the stock's decline and then took credit for the stock's recovery. He did it all with fervent conviction in his voice. Amazing!
    9 Jan 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • bertrandrighi2
    , contributor
    Comments (37) | Send Message
     
    This is just how Real Life is. You'll be told, " turn right", and at the same time "turn left", and even a third one " keep course steady" or even a fourth one " stop ! Please don't move ".
    Then YOU DECIDE, or at least you think you decide, as being under the influence of the one with the most skilled marketing team.
    As for me I put my money where I put my mouth. I trust that the fundamentals should put the price for gold, higher, on a world scale. I call your attention that in Hong Kong and soon Shanghai, ( where it's going to be traded in Chinese currency ), they already agree to pay a PREMIUM as to compare to the London fixing.
    Coming to the "charts" I see today an exact replication of what ran over 15 months , spreading 2008 / 2009. If it's going to replicate up to the end, then we are in a low. Coming a new ride towards lill' under 1800. Small drop again in the 1650 range. And then a real take off to 2000 and over. A long run then, that should push the price up to 2300 $ / oz, before mid year 2013.
    I'm not a professional, but I take the risk.
    And A LOT of professionals were still talking that way, til recently , before we see a surge of contrarians. As big as JP Morgan. But indeed their peers take the opposite position, of what JP Morgan SAYS. As for what JP Morgan really does, do YOU know it ???
    Happy investing ...
    10 Jan 2013, 03:39 AM Reply Like
  • durski
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    This article is just like a weatherperson predicting a 50 percent chance of sun. I like gold, I don't like wishy-washy.
    10 Jan 2013, 03:50 AM Reply Like
  • tkreider
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Well, technical analysis certainly has its place. I have always looked at both the chart and the underlying fundamentals. I think that if you're truly unbiased, you might agree that the fundamentals of the metal market, particularly Gold and Silver, are strong....given the way this country and others are bumping up their balance sheets with fiat currency. I could go on about debt vs gdp, deficit spending and the like, but most of those who follow these sorts of economics will most likely agree that we, the europeans and now the Japaneese are driving the value of the respective currencies south. If/when these additional funds works their way into the economy through lending, you've got inflation. Lower currency value plue inflation might very well be positive for hard assets, two of which are Gold/Silver. Don't let your biases toward the metals and/or technical analysis cloud your thinking.
    10 Jan 2013, 04:43 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Tools
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio:
Seeking Alpha's new ETF Hub
ETF Investment Guide:
Table of Contents | One Page Summary
Read about different ETF Asset Classes:
ETF Selector