Seeking Alpha

Leave it to Zero Hedge to see the cloud beneath the silver lining of the latest jobs report:...

Leave it to Zero Hedge to see the cloud beneath the silver lining of the latest jobs report: "Today's BLS of 244K is great... until you exclude the 62K from McDonald's (MCD) hirings, and 175K from the Birth Death Adjustment, and end up with... +7K jobs." (also)
Comments (25)
  • tunaman4u2
    , contributor
    Comments (3217) | Send Message
     
    Zerohedge for the truth
    6 May 2011, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • MarketGuy
    , contributor
    Comments (3983) | Send Message
     
    I've yet to find a site that has so many articles and research that exposes what's "really" going on. Most of their stuff ends up with follow-on articles saying, "well, like we said would happen..."
    6 May 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • MarketGuy
    , contributor
    Comments (3983) | Send Message
     
    well, well, well...looks like the "thumbs down troll" has arrived. Boy that really changed the context of all that's been said....oh, wait, no it hasn't (but the troll's too stupid to understand this).
    6 May 2011, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • James Quinn
    , contributor
    Comments (1016) | Send Message
     
    LEAVE IT TO SEEKING LEMMINGS EDITORS TO NOT RESEARCH THE REAL NUMBERS.

     

    The government reported employment numbers again come from George Orwell’s world. There are two different surveys used to report this crap. The headline is that we “CREATED” 244,000 jobs in April. Total bullshit. Here is a link to the BLS Birth/Death adjustment for April.

     

    www.bls.gov/web/empsit...

     

    The government has no idea whether small businesses have added or subtracted workers, so they have a model that guesses what happened. Shockingly, it has guessed too high by MILLIONS of jobs over the last three years. Over on Calculated Risk this morning was this info:

     

    The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) will release their April survey on Tuesday, May 10th. Here is a pre-release of the employment results from NFIB: NFIB Jobs Statement: Hiring Trends Inconsistent and Disappointing

     

    “Four months into 2011, the trajectory for small-business hiring appears inconsistent and disappointing. February and March gave us some hope, but in April, the average number of net new jobs slipped from 0.17 per firm to 0.04. With fewer increases in new hires and more reports of shrinkage in workforces, we can expect the April job numbers to be a disappointment.

     

    Drilling down into the (seasonally adjusted) numbers:

     

    • 8 percent of those surveyed increased employment;
    • 15 percent reduced employment; and,
    • 14 percent reported unfilled job openings, down 1 point from last month.

     

    “And the outlook for future employment growth remains unchanged from March: Only 16 percent plan to increase employment, and 6 percent plan to reduce their workforce, yielding a seasonally adjusted net 2 percent of owners planning to create new jobs in the next three months.

     

    This info says that small businesses are decreasing employment but the government says they added 175,000 jobs in April. The 244,000 number is complete and utter bullshit.

     

    The real numbers are on this part of the BLS website.

     

    www.bls.gov/web/empsit...

     

    Here is what is really happening:

     

    The number of employed Americans DROPPED by 190,000 in April versus March

     

    The number of officially unemployed went up by 205,000 and at the same time another 131,000 people left the workforce because things are soooo good.

     

    The official unemployment rate went up to 9%

     

    Since last April, the working age population went up by 1.8 million, but somehow the civilian labor force declined by 1.1 million. George Orwell is spinning in his grave.

     

    There are only 292,000 more people employed today than last April, but Obama claims that millions of new jobs have been created. The Bigger the Lie, the more likely the masses will believe.

     

    Even though only 292,000 more people are employed, the number of unemployed dropped by 1.4 million in the last year. WOW!!! What happened to these people? Were they beamed up to Mars.

     

    No. It seems that things in the country are so great that 2.9 million people have voluntarily left the labor force in the last year.

     

    These employment statistics are beyond laughable. Reality is that unemployment is north of 20%. The stock market doesn’t care. It will rally on this fake data, but the people who are unemployed know differently.
    6 May 2011, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Hubert Biagi
    , contributor
    Comments (709) | Send Message
     
    Well, we could argue statistics all day long, or at least you could, lol. Bottom line is what are the market expectations, how the market perceives the data, and how will it react. It really doesn't matter what you or think about the "data". What matters is what the market thinks of the data.
    6 May 2011, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • MarketGuy
    , contributor
    Comments (3983) | Send Message
     
    Hulbert,

     

    what "market"?

     

    James,

     

    Although I don't particularly agree with your over the top abrasiveness, I do agree with your underlying points.
    6 May 2011, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • Hubert Biagi
    , contributor
    Comments (709) | Send Message
     
    The market is currency, equities, bonds, i.e., pensions funds, retirement funds, investments, economic development, and yes, bureaucracy, bailouts, and bullshit. It represents the strength and faith in our system, i.e., capitalism, which admittedly, is a lousy system, full of inequalities, but the best we have. That is, until you invent something better, lol.
    6 May 2011, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • MarketGuy
    , contributor
    Comments (3983) | Send Message
     
    Well said Hubert!

     

    and if it "represents the strength and faith in our system" as you say, boy are we in trouble right now.
    6 May 2011, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    not only does zero sense get it wrong on the McDonalds thing
    you and they don't understand the model

     

    best of all the part of the report that was actually not good was the hours worked and pay piece and this is a real concern but on that no comment by any of you geniuses

     

    I love it.

     

    This is why I am rich. Thank God for the Gaussian distribution. I will play against you people all day long and twice on Sunday's

     

    and BTW Bernanke for Prez.

     

    E
    6 May 2011, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • MarketGuy
    , contributor
    Comments (3983) | Send Message
     
    well, well, well. Look who shows up late and, gee...right after the "thumbs down troll" did his duty. what a coincidence (again).
    6 May 2011, 11:53 PM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    good to see you Gollum. that paper money's ust be starting to look pretty good around now I bet

     

    buying silver on fundamentals. LOL.

     

    you must be Top 100 SA Commenter material. too funny

     

    E
    7 May 2011, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • Ed Zimmer
    , contributor
    Comments (52) | Send Message
     
    At least ZH didn't just parrot the government statistics and PR. Appreiate a site that looks under the hoopla and exposes the termite ridden substructure
    6 May 2011, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Duude
    , contributor
    Comments (3398) | Send Message
     
    They've been using the birth/death adjustment for years. But since 2007 its become a bigger and bigger component and the revisions have become even bigger and usually downward. Does this mean they're out and out cooking the books? I dunno. 2009 had bigger revisions than did 2010. But in both years the birth/death adjustment and the revisions were far bigger than they were in the period 2003-2006. Haven't had access to numbers before 2003. Will need to stay tuned for 2011 revisions.
    6 May 2011, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Jim P. Smith
    , contributor
    Comments (437) | Send Message
     
    It's commentary like this that makes me read Zerohedge everyday and only "check in once in awhile" with Seeking Alpha.
    6 May 2011, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • Stone Fox Capital
    , contributor
    Comments (6887) | Send Message
     
    Rick Santelli suggested the numbers from McDonalds didn't make the jobs report. Just b/c they 'hired' them on April 19th doesn't mean they started that day.
    6 May 2011, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Eric Insler
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Good point Stone Fox. Also, even though the McDonalds hiring made big news, a lot of it was their typical hiring getting ready for their heavier summer season. Therefore, these hirings would be smoothed out of the seasonally adjusted data by adjustments.
    6 May 2011, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Bear Bait
    , contributor
    Comments (689) | Send Message
     
    I don't know and I'm just asking. How many jobs were lost in Auto manufacturing and related businesses due to parts shortages?
    6 May 2011, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • 867046
    , contributor
    Comments (398) | Send Message
     
    The main and subsidiary comments reflect the typical innumeracy of liberal arts majors:

     

    1) The birth death number is in EVERY jobs report. It didn't just show up this month as spun by ZH.

     

    2) So according to the main comment, the jobs report should only reflect the employment situation for the upper classes?

     

    In summary, with the birth/death adjustment, think of it as a relative not an absolute indicator if it makes you feel better.
    6 May 2011, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • James Quinn
    , contributor
    Comments (1016) | Send Message
     
    Wrong. They add hundreds of thousands of jobs every month and then a year later say whoops and "adjust" them out of existence because they never happened.
    6 May 2011, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • MarketGuy
    , contributor
    Comments (3983) | Send Message
     
    and here's yet another Zero Hedge "tidbit" of apples to apples: www.zerohedge.com/arti...

     

    ...oh those "silly" facts getting in the way of "recovery".
    6 May 2011, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • anomaly1
    , contributor
    Comments (915) | Send Message
     
    WHO CARES? Oil will stay up until the traders who are leveraged 20X long are out. Its all about where the money flows.

     

    Buy equities/commodities on any pullback will work until it doesnt.

     

    It would be nice to have a correction.
    6 May 2011, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • dumamay
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Thank goodness we have ZH. The Gov't numbers cannot be trusted.
    6 May 2011, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • ADSmith80
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    More businesses form and fewer die this time a year--if you apply seasonals to the B/D adjustment it was actually negative, and without them it was still significantly less than the pre-recession 05-07 average of closer to 240K; it was 126K two year ago, so you've got a 50K bump to account for two years of recovery--seems reasonable to me. This was a positive report, and suggests a very low risk of pre-QEII malaise
    6 May 2011, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • James Quinn
    , contributor
    Comments (1016) | Send Message
     
    The 126k from two years ago was adjusted away in their annual revisions. They didn't happen. Almost 1.7 million jobs that the BLS claimed were created during their monthly BS reports disappeared without a trace. POOF!!!!
    6 May 2011, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • James Quinn
    , contributor
    Comments (1016) | Send Message
     
    The more thumbs down you receive on Seeking Lemmings represents a badge of honor for cutting through all the spin, lies, and misinformation that is spewed on this site by the likes of Econmoron and his band of kiss ass followers.

     

    This site has degenerated into a stock shill site. Truth or facts have no place on this site.
    7 May 2011, 07:54 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Hub
ETF Screener: Search and filter by asset class, strategy, theme, performance, yield, and much more
ETF Performance: View ETF performance across key asset classes and investing themes
ETF Investing Guide: Learn how to build and manage a well-diversified, low cost ETF portfolio
ETF Selector: An explanation of how to select and use ETFs