Seeking Alpha

Nokia (NOK -2.7%) ticks lower following a downgrade to Underweight from Barclays' Jeff Kvaal: he...

Nokia (NOK -2.7%) ticks lower following a downgrade to Underweight from Barclays' Jeff Kvaal: he argues "neither Lumia nor Windows Phone has reached critical mass," and claims "CES checks showed few signs WP8’s promise is converting to sustained demand." Moreover, Kvaal believes Nokia, which expects to report 4.4M Lumia sales for a supply-constrained Q4, will need to sell 10M-12M Lumias/quarter for its Smart Devices ops to break even, assuming a €225 ASP, 20% gross margin, and €2B in opex. (April downgrade)
Comments (24)
  • and that won't happen so good by NOK.
    14 Jan 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Goodbye is one word stupid - Unless of course you meant that Nokia is a good buy in which case you spelt both versions wrong but I do agree with you.
    14 Jan 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • At what point do Goldman Sachs, over 100M shares, and Morgan Stanley start dumping NOK?


    Is this an opportunity to buy more shares for the institutional holders?
    14 Jan 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • MSFT and now NOK already said they would have no presence @CES


    MWC will be a big one for them.
    14 Jan 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Lets wait a little while and we may be able to get more at lower prices with this downgrade, dont allow analysts to color your vision of where a company is going when you are long.
    Nokia to me a long term investment which will have a lot of ups and downs along the way, let the day traders worry about short term movements while the longs can profit from an upward trend over time.
    14 Jan 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • MSFT was in CES

    14 Jan 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • LOL lets not be fooled by few analysts. Keep 'em watching to come with whatever -ve. Isnot this same NOK that was not supoose to even reach 2.7 and have already beaten the yearly target. 4.4 vs 10 to 12 only 2013 can tell us.
    14 Jan 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Yes, sales of lumia did not reache up to expectations, far below
    14 Jan 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • what a lot of Horse crap - it is a good thing these guys trade for large Banks ( kept a live with tax payer's money ) if they had to trade with their own money they would be selling Hamburgers at Burger King -
    you should have come with a selling advise when Nokia broke the 23 euro mark on the downside not a selling advise when Nokia is just breaking out of a 5 year downtrend down trend at 2,50 euro on the upside - here some free advice for you Jeff. the play for the next 3 to 4 months Short Apple / Long Nokia - short Amazon and Google / Long Microsoft and Siemens. you can do that through an option strategy , all through selling puts for Siemens, Microsoft and Nokia at the money and buying puts for Amazon, Apple, GooGle slightly out of the money and that still leaves you with a bit of spare cash to start with... let me know how you are doing on your Short Nokia versus my play.
    14 Jan 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Also upgraded by three other agencies (Sydbank, FIM, Goldman Sachs), stop trying to pinpoint the reasons for small adjustments..
    14 Jan 2013, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • @p0zz


    Yeah, and even today's dip didn't stick
    $NOK After Hours: 4.68 +0.06 (1.30%)
    14 Jan 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • I don't get this. Nokia passed up on CES so how can significant data about Nokia come from that show? Also, Nokia does not "expect" to report 4.4m Lumia sales, it already has. And if Nokia breaks even on 4.4m Lumias, which they say they have, why does an analyst say they need nearly triple that to break even in Q1?
    14 Jan 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • @Kamminga: Barclay's is talking only of WP8 traction that they checked in CES, where MSFT was.
    14 Jan 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Isn't it quite normal that a stock that was up as much as NOK these last days, does now and then pause and retreats a bit?
    14 Jan 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • >>Eld.
    I did read that. But it's yet another supposition without any factual negative info from MSFT, who are actually saying it's going well, and who presumably will shortly be updating us. This is not a valuable analysis imo. You think it is?
    14 Jan 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • But is Nokia and WP8 reaching critical mass, that's the question. We can all be Monday morning Quarterbacks like this guy, but where is the stock going? Has it improved? Yes. Will it improve more with the China mobile deal? Yes. Did it suffer from supply constraints? Yes. Are all the other parts of Nokia business now successful? Yes. Is the re-structuring starting to take effect and improve margins? Yes.


    Seems to me this Jeff Kvaal is taking the easy way out by commenting on what's already history, not what's coming down the road.


    Long NOK
    14 Jan 2013, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • 4.4 mil units in a partial 4qtr 2012.
    With a full quarters sales, supply problems addressed, new sales starting up in China, Could we see a larger sales number in Q1? Sounds likely.
    14 Jan 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • What's this critical mass BS?
    Was Nokia supposed to sell like 25 million Lumia's last quarter?
    Give me a break.
    14 Jan 2013, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • This is the best BUY signal I have seen since Thursday.
    14 Jan 2013, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • I find it extremely suspicious that Barclays more than doubled their holdings in NOK during the last quarter of 2012. They are now one of
    the top institutional holders of NOK along with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse. See the article at:

    15 Jan 2013, 04:26 AM Reply Like
  • They want to sell our stocks cheap.They will not succeed.
    15 Jan 2013, 04:29 AM Reply Like
  • Why do I care what Kvaal thinks? One can find opinions on any side of any stock position and stick them on a website. I don't share his downbeat view, most of which is unsupported opinion, not facts. Kvaal will discover the merits of Nokia long after consumers have done so. Ignore analysists, how many times must that be repeated to investors. Listen to the voices right here at Seeking Alpha and do your own calculations and follow your common sense and you will succeed.
    15 Jan 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • I bought Nokia stock and sold it the next day because I thought the software did not work as I had thought. Then 3 days later I found out the software DID work to my liking but by then the stock had soared and I was left at the station. Should I go back in? I love that new 920 and believe they did a wonderful design. I'm not into millions of app's for the I5 and think most of them are wasteful garbage so I don't care a hoot about app's.
    15 Jan 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Jackpot,
    You could wait for a pullback and then invest with a $10 target and a 5 year horizon. There is some shareholder equity to provide a "margin of safety", but not much. However, NOK has a lot of good will globally, an impressive phone lineup, experience in global markets, and some big opportunities already lined up such as the China deal. European recovery will probably help Nokia as well. As long as Elop is in charge, Nokia is in good hands. All the best.
    16 Jan 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)