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Apple (AAPL -2.3%) has tumbled below $500 following Nomura's big PT cut. Multi-Fineline's (MFLX...

Apple (AAPL -2.3%) has tumbled below $500 following Nomura's big PT cut. Multi-Fineline's (MFLX -20.3%) warning also might not be going over well. Nomura backs up the WSJ and Nikkei's reports by stating its own checks indicate weaker-than-expected iPhone 5 sales; it now expects 48M sales in FQ1, and 39M in FQ2, but is raising its iPad forecasts. Echoing a recent CLSA note, Nomura thinks Android's Asian dominance has become a problem for Apple. Sterne Agee, meanwhile, believes all is well.
Comments (48)
  • nfultz1
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    It's interesting how this keeps getting reported. WSJ & Nikkei's reports showed that supply orders were cut from a much larger than expected order. The weaker demand part is only an assumption. They haven't done any checks to confirm demand.

     

    Secondly MFLX is a positive for Apple. Orders were up as seen in their revenue. Margins for MFLX are expected to be lower. Wouldn't that mean lower costs for Apple or at least they got a good value?
    15 Jan 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • SA Editor Eric Jhonsa
    , contributor
    Comments (763) | Send Message
     
    It's not an assumption, the article texts indicate it's something their sources told them. If you want to argue the sources might have inaccurate or incomplete info, or that other reports paint a different picture, that's one thing. But the following line in the WSJ column is pretty unambiguous:

     

    "Apple Inc. AAPL -2.49% has cut its orders for components for the iPhone 5 due to weaker-than-expected demand, people familiar with the situation said Monday."

     

    And now we have Nomura saying its own checks indicate something similar. I think all of this is now priced in (and maybe then some), but I don't think investors do themselves any favors if they deny the existence of unfavorable news.
    15 Jan 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • bobbobwhite
    , contributor
    Comments (1969) | Send Message
     
    "people familiar with the situation"

     

    Ah, yes, those all-knowing "people" who are not identified that we are supposed to follow in the same way as a Pied Piper.

     

    People in a nuthouse are also familiar with the situation there, so are we supposed to follow them and do what they say? I have a novel idea, how about following what Apple itself says instead?

     

    What a crock all of this "news" is.
    15 Jan 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • SA Editor Eric Jhonsa
    , contributor
    Comments (763) | Send Message
     
    If we didn't have unnamed sources to rely on (they stay unnamed so that they don't get fired), we wouldn't have known the iPhone 5 has a 4" display and an LTE modem until Sep. 12.
    15 Jan 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • nfultz1
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    I definitely don't think we should deny unfavorable news, and my criticism is not with Seeking Alpha. My point is that although this is an unnamed source, it is perceived to be a supplier check. A demand check would be talking to a cell phone carrier or retail outlet. A supply cut from a large original order is not necessarily a lack of demand. Whether it's WSJ or the actual source, the demand portion is an assumption.

     

    The only news we have had from the demand side directly conflicts with the concept of a supply cut due to weak demand. AT&T, Verizon, analyst inventory availability checks and Apple's recent report on China's opening weekend sales all point to strong demand.

     

    That is why I find it interesting that the lack of demand portion is emphasized in the news more than the supply cut.
    15 Jan 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • redponydoc
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    There has been no unfavorable news.

     

    It is unambiguous that reduced orders for components is relative to the previous quarter, wherein AAPL refreshed their entire product line.

     

    As far as any reporting, we know of nothing new and negative about ongoing demand.
    15 Jan 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • SA Editor Eric Jhonsa
    , contributor
    Comments (763) | Send Message
     
    I understand what you're saying. However, there's no reason to think the WSJ's source is simply making an assumption about demand. The source could have been informed by Apple or perhaps Foxconn that demand is off, so as to get the supplier he/she works for to adjust their production plans.

     

    The WSJ has a pretty good track record when it comes to verifying sources. Maybe someone got something wrong here, but this isn't a Digitimes report we're looking at.
    15 Jan 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • rocback
    , contributor
    Comments (987) | Send Message
     
    Forbes just released an article called "Did the WSJ get Punked" about the so called supply cut that exposes how the journal and the numbers of supply cuts dont actually show a drop off of orders as all these articles imply. Good read.
    15 Jan 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • rocback
    , contributor
    Comments (987) | Send Message
     
    The WSJ deleted the quote "due to weaker demand".
    15 Jan 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • SA Editor Eric Jhonsa
    , contributor
    Comments (763) | Send Message
     
    Only from the headline. "Weaker-than-expected demand" is still in the article text.
    15 Jan 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • ssl23
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    The MFLX REVENUE for the past quarter implies a 18% increase in rev. from Apple from the same quarter last year if we assume the same 66% of business is from Apple.

     

    That is not bad news for Apple.
    15 Jan 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • rperson
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Ok explain why a source like CNBC runs a story on their mobile app with the headline: "Consumer Report ranks Iphone 5 worst smart phone". First of all, the CR story ran in October. Why are they headlining it today? Second, if you go to the CR site for the iPhone 5 review it says exactly the OPPOSITE of what CNBC is reporting! It calls iPhone 5 "...a winner". You're an editor. Can you explain this to me?
    15 Jan 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • FAT BANKER
    , contributor
    Comments (888) | Send Message
     
    Re SA Editor Eric Jhonsa Comment 471

     

    This is all something over nothing YET AGAIN - pure speculative nonsense by the Wall Street analysts and their media cronies cloaked in half substantiated facts and half baked truths to scare the ill informed ordinary investor. It's terrible that these types can not find real work.

     

    We will soon see what's what !!
    23 Jan 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • ssl23
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    I dont understand this market....

     

    even with those estimate cuts compared to last years quarters, its still a nice growth rate. they raised ipad estimates!
    But that would hurt margins as more ipads are sold than iphones.

     

    Are you telling me that at $700 people were expecting apple to grow at 90% rev year over year?

     

    Now if they wind up selling only 47million iphones, thats a miss???

     

    Wake up apple management and fight back and protect your shareholders from the street manipulation of your stock.
    15 Jan 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • gsterling
    , contributor
    Comments (569) | Send Message
     
    All I know is with the current valuation it's pointless to sell at this price unless you believe Apple is done and will not be able to innovate or compete with Android. Apple certainly made some bad mistakes when they came out with the iPhone starting with the exclusive AT&T agreement and their one size fits all model. That's classic Steve Jobs my way or the highway mentality. I'm hoping Tim Cook is more flexible than that and there seem to be plenty of rumors of other iPhone models coming out. That said I'd love to see AAPL take some of their cash stockpile and buy back shares.
    15 Jan 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • css1971
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    Wow. You guys didn't sell at $700?

     

    Buy low and sell high is the aim of the game, not buy high sell low.
    15 Jan 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • SoCalNative
    , contributor
    Comments (435) | Send Message
     
    I kicked myself for not selling at $700 but, I did have enough sense to sell at $567.61.
    15 Jan 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • John1138
    , contributor
    Comments (161) | Send Message
     
    I had the sense to buy at $35.

     

    And NOT sell.
    15 Jan 2013, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • SoCalNative
    , contributor
    Comments (435) | Send Message
     
    john,
    THAT is sense alright!
    15 Jan 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Wim Lewi
    , contributor
    Comments (73) | Send Message
     
    Analysts are lagging indicators. The fair value is 500 USD, but they missed the correction and are now panicking. The exaggeration happens at both sides up and down. I explain the analyst panic :
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    15 Jan 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Rappenco
    , contributor
    Comments (555) | Send Message
     
    Very well said;
    $ 700 was probably an exaggeration on the high side as $465 ( Pete Najarian'; Fast Money) is on the low side. Use these exaggerations to make money trading the options.

     

    Sell the Feb 1 $ 460 puts for $10.
    gives you an entry point of $450 on the stock. Not bad I would say.
    15 Jan 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • ssl23
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    Pete Najarian at $465....this is the same guy who said on air to buy apple at around $600(near 200 day ma) for a trading pop...or was that his twin brother? LOL
    15 Jan 2013, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Atkins
    , contributor
    Comments (1038) | Send Message
     
    Does anyone listen to Pete?
    15 Jan 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • JUDOKA
    , contributor
    Comments (406) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for sharing your crystal balls.The only thing that matters is next week's earnings report and the comments attached.Apple has not misled anyone;unlike companies like RIMM and NT in the past.The annual meeting is 2/27.Let's see what the company has to say that is fact;not rumor and NOISE.I have not drunk the kool-aid,but where were these analyst's sell recommendations three,four,or even five months ago.
    15 Jan 2013, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Optionstrader7
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
     
    Loving every minute of it.
    15 Jan 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • SoldHigh
    , contributor
    Comments (1013) | Send Message
     
    AAPL trend has been down since it hit 700s, and it's going lower. All those useless analysts will lower their targets as the stock makes new lows - they're like weathermen who tell you yesterday's forecast.
    15 Jan 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • robgra
    , contributor
    Comments (361) | Send Message
     
    Next major support is around $440...

     

    P& F price objective $416...

     

    The trend is your friend.
    15 Jan 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • rperson
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    How's that $440 looking today? Any more predictions we can count on from you?
    16 Jan 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • kickshark
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Whilst all these news pulling the stock down why no one from AAPL is commenting on this perceived low demand issue? Are they gonna let their quarterly results talk?
    15 Jan 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Dean Scarpinato
    , contributor
    Comments (372) | Send Message
     
    Google cramer fomenting the market

     

    http://bit.ly/TYiUFn
    15 Jan 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • moreofthesame
    , contributor
    Comments (743) | Send Message
     
    Investors want to see prove that the current Apple management is able to reinvent itself in the same way as what made the company what it is today.
    Its obvious that the iPhone gravy train has been ridden into the ground and something new has to emerge once again from Apple, Steve Jobs was a genius and recognized the need for re inventing the company when needed. Once Apple proves that it still has that magic touch, stock will go up again but if it does't then it will simply become a "normal" company and do business like everybody else.
    15 Jan 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • wallberg
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    All these people are making money on their PUTS before they made their reports to the WSJ ,NOURA and others. Seeking Alpha should not give them free press time! Before these people made their reports both yesterday and today they made their PUT purchases probably through members of the family and not themselves. I can picture the WSJ writer at dinner a few nights ago telling his brother to load up on APPLE puts for Jan 23rd ,Strike price 525, and than he releases his article! What a terrible game they play!
    15 Jan 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • nguyenvanphuoc
    , contributor
    Comments (373) | Send Message
     
    According to the numbers, Nomura has lowered their estimates to represent only 25% growth in iPhone sales for the FY. And their iPad growth has been lowered to 53% growth.

     

    I guess a company with sluggish growth like that deserves to be trading at 8x earnings.

     

    And if Android has become "so dominant in Asia" can they explain why Samsung sold (rather, 'shipped') 40 million Galaxy 3's in 6 months, and Nomura's own revised estimate has 48 million iPhones sold last QUARTER?

     

    Seriously, the math doesn't add up.
    15 Jan 2013, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Maciej Kedzierski
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    I also have a question about the math. IF this "analyst" is to be believed he thinks Apple will sell 48 M iPhones. Given that the margin per the last conference call was 36%- doesn't that imply approx 10 Billion in EARNINGS from iPhone alone? and his expectation for next quarter of 39 M implies approx 8 Billion Earnings . And this is not including iPad or anything else... And this is somehow not up to expectations?
    15 Jan 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Michael2343
    , contributor
    Comments (457) | Send Message
     
    Its amazing how a few simple traders are calling for the most basic of moves, trade a downtrending stock to the downside, against the backdrop of what now amounts to conspiracy theory. At first it was "Wall Street is wrong" now its "the media" "lying" about Apple. Yet the discussions from businesspeople and technology savvy investors who know what is up are dismissed out of hand, even in the face of a stock trajectory that 110% validates their claims.

     

    I guess the selling will just accelerate, then, the big bandwagon of panic selling hasn't been hit yet.
    15 Jan 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • rperson
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    You are either naive or don't know what you are talking about.
    16 Jan 2013, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • STDvooh
    , contributor
    Comments (641) | Send Message
     
    The assumption that change in parts orders are from lack of sales doesn't make sense as AAPL is out selling everyone else anyway.

     

    More likely the change in parts orders are to make way for a World iPhone, with larger display, that would have the ability to work anywhere on Earth, including China. Why would Cook have gone back to China Mobile it there wasn't some sort of "arrangement" between the two companies?

     

    Bullish on the company with the best fundamentals ever: AAPL.
    Wait til the 23rd, then the financial "experts" can all eat their words.
    15 Jan 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • RaulReina
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Regarding Editor Erik Jhonsa comments: Indeed, it was a very irresponsible assumption made by the WSJ author Juro Osawa. Please, see the video posted by TheStreet yesterday where he was interviewed and said that a weak demand was a possibility but a simple seasonality correction could be another one. Why did not say that when wrote the article?
    Everyone can see the video in below link:

     

    http://bit.ly/107xxdo

     

    Once again, Apple stock price is very low but WSJ credibility and reputation is pretty low as well.
    15 Jan 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • vfx1993
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Would be good to know how many options calls Nomura trading sold expiring this Friday - or advised clients of selling which expire this Friday. I completely understand that there is a "Chinese Wall" but just curious.
    15 Jan 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • rrosey2
    , contributor
    Comments (689) | Send Message
     
    This is an investors dream. The best company in the world, and now selling at a bargain price.
    I'm buying, and if it goes down, I'm buying more.

     

    I don't think today's WSJ is like the old trusted WSJ. They echo the politically motivated CNBC and Fox News.
    15 Jan 2013, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • xeys_00
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    Rupert Murdoch bought the Journal. So it's like Fox News but covering stocks instead. When was the last time Fox News gave decent coverage of the news?
    15 Jan 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • marcinz
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
     
    it`s same story as last year and then boom the stock goes to $700...
    15 Jan 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Bking82
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    AAPL is getting pushed down this week due to actual options pain at 475 for Jan 13 in my view. I expect a pop on Monday and continuing right through earnings which may surpise some folks on the upside.
    15 Jan 2013, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Dean Scarpinato
    , contributor
    Comments (372) | Send Message
     
    LEGENDARY TIMER ON AAPL DEMARK: "THE BOTTOM IS IN" AND 20% RALLY COMING
    He's the guy who called $701 a screaming top on aapl.

     

    he now says that the selling is massively overdone and says the stock is within a day at most of bottoming.

     

    love him and his chart work -- he's been brilliant on aapl.

     

    btw, the fundamentals are screaming here as we have pointed out today on several threads, esp when idiots call this dead and screwed just like all the other companies that went nowhere (as if aapl is a comp to flat revs stories like dell and msft with products like the zune and cheesy desktops no one wants).

     

    wait until tomorrow when all his clients pull off the short hedges (cover short shares, and cover in the long puts and short calls).
    15 Jan 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Dean Scarpinato
    , contributor
    Comments (372) | Send Message
     
    AAPL up 5 in AH at this moment
    15 Jan 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • ssl23
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    he also hedged his call by saying if this level doesn't hold, it could go down another 100 points.

     

    the volume in after hours is a few hundred thousand....vs 30mm in the session

     

    the stock went through his "494 level" in the first 5mins and closed near the lows of the day and never made it back to his 494 level during the day...

     

    im looking to add to my longs, but i think i'll get a better chance tomorrow.
    we need a 40million volume day for a washout...
    15 Jan 2013, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • ssl23
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    Nice call Dean.....looks like he didnt front run his call and let his clients know. He called it perfect even to the 494 level at the open of trading.
    16 Jan 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Stephen J Melnykevich
    , contributor
    Comments (1230) | Send Message
     
    Is this andy zaky we are talking about?
    16 Jan 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
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