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More on jobless claims: At 335K, it's the lowest read since January 2008. The 4-week moving...

More on jobless claims: At 335K, it's the lowest read since January 2008. The 4-week moving average declines 6.75K to 359.2K. A Marketwatch report say seasonal quirks could be behind the big decline, without giving any detail. The news combines with the big housing starts print to send S&P futures +0.6%, 10-year Treasury yields to 1.87%, gold -0.6%, and the dollar higher across the board.
Comments (32)
  • Witness the magic of QEternity in the USA as Germany shrinks from "sound monetary and fiscal policies".

     

    ROFL!
    17 Jan 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Germany's GDP growth was positive for 2012. Also these "sound monetary and fiscal policies" left Germany with a budget surplus for 2012 as well. QE can't do that.

     

    Most of Germany's issues stem from lost demand in other countries that aren't doing so well. Their domestic policies have given them the most stable economy of the last 20 years.
    17 Jan 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • "A Marketwatch report say seasonal quirks could be behind the big decline, without giving any detail."

     

    doesn't take a lot of homework to find the seasonal factor...1.66...still
    I like the media focusing on the wrong numbers..so I will shut up...
    17 Jan 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • "without giving any detail."

     

    Apparently it was based on comments from a gov official.
    17 Jan 2013, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • How about the highest seasonal adjustment factor in three years?

     

    Actual claims for week of 1/14/12: 525,422
    Actual claims for week of 1/12/13: 555,708

     

    Yet y/y claims are reported to have fallen from 364K to 335K? Real claims UP 30k, adjusted claims DOWN 30K. No holidays, no snowstorms. I don't buy it.
    17 Jan 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • I hope you are not short as there's a big rally coming today.
    17 Jan 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Spot on, Kevin. However, don't expect the political elite that believe in profligate money printing to solve our ills to be misled by facts. They know better.
    17 Jan 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Of course there is. Q1-12 had huge rally based on weather and a promise of economic strength that never was.
    17 Jan 2013, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • So I presume you are long?
    17 Jan 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Until I'm short.
    17 Jan 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • The explanation is lot more involved than I care to go into...some homework on jobless claims history (calender wise) would help your understanding
    17 Jan 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Oh that is right, you are so much more intelligent than us. We disagree with your viewpoint, therefore we must be stupid.
    17 Jan 2013, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Ask someone to do some research and they take it personal....then again fine with me keep that viewpoint...
    17 Jan 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • I do research, sir. Why do you think I don't? Actual jobless claims are higher than in 2012, fact. Jobless claims were 555,708 as stated previously, fact. Government bureaucrats revised down the actual results to 335,000 due to a 'seasonal factor'. They also state the second week of January is a particularly 'strange' week for claims due to what a Labor Department official calls 'an odd calendar configuration'. I would further explain but by now you are probably rolling your eyes and huffing about my level of intellect.

     

    Sir, I so tire of the arrogance and condescension. When we wonder why our politicians cannot discuss issues as adults, perhaps we should start by looking in the mirror.
    17 Jan 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • "I do research, sir"

     

    I believe it is rule 5 of Rules for Radicals that encourages "ridicule". Its just a tactic to quell dissent. Good for you for not falling for it. A lose rule of thumb is that the louder the ridicule the closer you are to the truth. Not always, but its still handy to remember.
    17 Jan 2013, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • Fine...good luck...
    17 Jan 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Macro: Don't understand the argument here....the market hasn't been correlated to the economy since QE started. It's easy to go shopping with found money and justify it later (i.e. celebrating a housing market that, while improving, hasn't even reached the level of an average year based on historical charts). I wonder where this market would be if the economy were actually doing well !
    17 Jan 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • It would be down, as if the economy was doing well the Fed would raise interest rates and eliminate QEternity.
    17 Jan 2013, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Agreed, and this doesn't concern you ? The Fed is running out of drugs for this market- they've already started to waiver (see last Fed minutes)
    17 Jan 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Did you see how many Fed Governors came out right after that and said that they will not take the feet off the pedal anytime soon? I am telling you, rally till 2015, then short the market as the economy improves and QEternity stops.
    17 Jan 2013, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • These doomers don't know how jobless claims are calculated. They lack normal brain functions.That's why they think everything is a conspiracy.
    17 Jan 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Or maybe those less optimistic actually do know what seasonal adjustment means and also know what initial unemployment claims means in the context of generationally low participation rates.

     

    While the number is good, it is in no way a conclusive sign of an improved job market.

     

    Too much trolling going on here. Let's up the standard.
    17 Jan 2013, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • It doesn't matter what the UI number is.....it won't have any impact on the "new normal" 1% GDP growth.
    17 Jan 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • I can settle for that as long as we have a new normal of 13% S&P500 growth, and I buy UPRO for 40%+ each year. Long live QEternity!
    17 Jan 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • I'm starting to come to the conclusion that a disproportionate number of people who post here on SA must be unemployed because, no matter what the data or trends suggest, they're perpetually gloomy about employment and the economy. It's not benefiting their investment outlook, either.

     

    In any event, contrary to some popular belief, the overall economy is not driven by employment at the margin, in any case. The economy is controlled by the spending behavior of the vast majority of people with jobs and/or money to spend.
    17 Jan 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • True....me..I am just trying to hide from my wife....
    17 Jan 2013, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Bear in mind with these jobless claims that we still have more and more people dropping out of the labor force. The fact that the unadjusted claims number increased year on year is especially damning in light of that. The unadjusted jobless claims number should be falling simply because of the people dropping out of the labor force. But that's not what is happening. Things are slowly getting worse, not better, even with the fantastic money printing. That is because that money is not even going back into the real economy. If it was, we would have higher inflation and lower unemployment. Stocks have been rising on hot air and buybacks and QE, not on actual prospects of growth. Most banks are not lending to consumers anyway. TARP should have never happened, the banks that overextended themselves should have been allowed to fail, along with General Motors. We should have instead embarked on a big Keynesian spending program to do what the government does best - massive infrastructure and R&D projects that the country could really use. Then we would have had 4 trillion dollars flow into the real economy over the last 4 years. Inflation should not have been any worse than it was in 2007, because the government should only be spending money to take up the slack in the private sector. The private sector should have picked itself up by its bootstraps and started growing and hiring. People would have money in their pockets from working on the infrastructure projects, and that would mean there would be a reason for the private sector to hire. The government could start out big... maybe 1.8 trillion in deficit spending (all direct money paid to hire workers to build infrastructure and for the materials). Then every year it could have dialed it down by 500 billion. 1.3 trillion in 2010, 800 billion in 2011, 300 billion in 2012, and the program would be wrapping up now or by the end of this year depending on when this was all started. Then we would have a minimal deficit and a strong private sector economy, which would have been supported the only way it can in the long term - by getting people to do useful work and putting cash in their pockets for it. Instead what we have is a stock market where the prices are propped up by companies having hiked margins to the moon (read: cut worker benefits and salaries), stock buybacks, and endless money printing. The prospects for actual growth are quite dismal, and the market will find a way to appreciably correct from this state in time.... and perhaps a lot sooner than the bulls want to believe.
    17 Jan 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Seth:

     

    We had the entire public and many businesses scared poopless, even with TARP keeping a complete global implosion from occurring. If all the major banks of the country (and world) had been allowed to fail, then we'd have encountered a depression, the size of which modern society can't even begin to comprehend. So much of economic behavior is mental, not balance sheets, so allowing the implosion to be orders of magnitude worse would have accomplished nothing, and we'd still be wallowing in the mire.The Government having caused the problems with its subprime policies in the first place, TARP was entirely warranted, and it even earned the Government (taxpayers) many billions in interest on top of principal repayments.

     

    Now, much debate about the advisability of endless ZIRP can be entertained because the suppression of interest rates for limitless periods has the effect of making consumers reticent to borrow now because they always think rates will be great or better next week. And, banks have very narrow margins, so they are cautious about making multi-year loans at low profitability. As rates rise, contrary to what many think, we'll see business pick up, not slacken. Interest rates will have no negative impact on credit formation until we're many, many percentage points higher on the rate scale.

     

    All the above notwithstanding, the economy is doing pretty well, in fact, and is trending in a positive direction. Myriad corporate reports, retail, autos, even homebuilding, says so. Somebody's got money and is spending it. There's way too much focus by some on the unemployment rate or the guy who lost his house. We have a national mania, led by the media, about the " less fortunate." This is obfuscating the bigger picture. Things are gradually getting better, not worse.
    And, given a choice, I'd much rather have money pumped into supporting private equity values and the banks than to build an even larger Government behemoth of workers building bridges to nowhere. We don't need or want WPA II.

     

    The pospects for growth are not dismal. One of the major reasons for a positive outlook should be the vast sums now tied up unproductively in cash, Treasury bonds and gold. That money will gradually start flowing back to more productive investments in equities and alternative investments, supporting the markets and making for a positive business environment. And, corporations are swimming in cash and just need to regain confidence to further expand investment. With tax policies finally settled, this may occur.
    And, China seems to be moving upward again, too; Japan is making the right moves, and even Europe appears to have passed the crisis stage. Progress isn't going to spontaneously reverse itself unless we encounter a huge unexpected negative event that generates a new wave of fear.
    Is everything perfect? No, but harboring relentless pessimism seems unwarranted, at least in my own opinion.
    17 Jan 2013, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • Even if you don't agree with the number today, look at the longer term trend. It doesn't matter which way you slice the pie, initial jobless claims are not increasing over a period of time. Perhaps w/w on occasion but not m/m and its not even close y/y.

     

    And if the trend continues, as it will, then we will get an improving economy. More people will have money to spend from slow test-the-water hirings, more products will be purchased, and businesses will hire even faster to capitalize on the demand. And that basic cycle will continue until the next inevitable recession. The business cycle runs the world, not the Fed or the President of the United States. It doesn't matter what they do.
    17 Jan 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • hey macro, i sure hope you are right; i'm 30k long and 3k short and thinking that when a stock like BA goes up when some of its products go down, hey, you gotta be right to not tilt against the windmill tsunami of central bank liquidity...
    17 Jan 2013, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Exactly. Don't fight the Fed. This is not a market to short. Even nonsense like gold went up today.
    17 Jan 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Appears as if some of the commenters here know better, but think dishonesty and theft are just ok anyway.
    17 Jan 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
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