Goldman's Jim O'Neill is unconcerned about a second-half slowdown, blaming recent disappointing...

Goldman's Jim O'Neill is unconcerned about a second-half slowdown, blaming recent disappointing economic data on supply-chain disruptions following Japan’s earthquake and tsunami. Although there's room for stocks and commodities to decline a bit further, he expects 3-3.5% growth in the second half. "If I am right, stocks will recover and Treasurys will fall."
Comments (8)
  • golongcheckdownmkt
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
    should say "When I am right."
    18 May 2011, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Machiavelli999
    , contributor
    Comments (831) | Send Message
    I think he is right that the Japanese supply disruptions have been underestimated as a cause for the recent slowdown.


    But what he fails to see are the negative effects of a rather more hawkish Fed and the negative effect that will have on economic growth and asset prices.
    18 May 2011, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • catamount
    , contributor
    Comments (388) | Send Message
    I will claim ignorance on the implications of a "more hawkish Fed" even if I acknowledge that we have one (no proof of that that I know of). Beyond that, you have not provided any evidence for your claims (RE: negative economic growth and asset prices), and you write with such authority that it seems you have a god complex.


    If you people can't back up what you say with facts and logic, please be quiet. I don't claim to know these things, but speaking with authority, as you do, requires providing such documentation. This is not a political forum where you just get to make shit up.
    18 May 2011, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • catamount
    , contributor
    Comments (388) | Send Message
    For a good take on O'Neil's most recent thoughts, check out his interview with Charlie Rose from 4/12/11 (a ~month ago):


    Lots of discussion about BRICs, their prospects, and the implications. He seems quite smart, but I may be naive.
    18 May 2011, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • tigersam
    , contributor
    Comments (1707) | Send Message
    He expects 3-3.5% growth in the second half.


    Commodity stocks moves every day up and down that much.
    18 May 2011, 03:21 PM Reply Like
    , contributor
    Comments (10809) | Send Message
    Economic Indicators:
    1. Real GDP fell to 1.8% in Q1 v 3.1% Q4
    2. PPI growing at 6.6% annual rate
    3. CPI including food and energy 3.2% latest 12 months.
    4. Dollar declined in the last 12 months more than 9%.
    5. Industrial production down
    6. Retail sales "gains" flat without auto's and gasoline
    7. Unemployment 8%, and who knows what U-6 unemployment should really be.
    8. Housing prices still going down
    9. Mis-directing zero interest rate policy at the FED will continue to lead to mal-investment and a failure to purge the past bubbles mal-investment.
    10. No end in sight $1.5 Trillion deficits.
    11. Ongoing QE required to fund federal spending
    12. EU leading the way, showing us what will happen because of our debt structure
    13. The only real hope to deal with debt is inflation which will further destroy segments of the economy.
    14. High(est) rates of use of government handouts like unemployment, food stamps, % of people getting government checks
    15. Continuation of government backed mortgages in a falling housing market with only 3.5% down payments
    16. Fed, State and Local government have YET to pull the trigger on their austerity programs since they got the benefit of bailout money last year.
    17. Commercial R/E loans up for reset total more than $2T
    18. Failure of treasury auctions to sell out without FED purchases
    19. Troubled banks up from 829 to 884 in the last year.
    20. The states have racked up over $1.8 trillion in taxpayer-supported obligations.
    21. Over the past 10 years state and local government spending has grown by 65%, tax receipts have grown only by 32%.


    How many red flags to you need to see before the warning registers?
    18 May 2011, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Duude
    , contributor
    Comments (3415) | Send Message
    Let's see,
    Its the bad weather
    Its the Japanese earthquake
    Its the European summer slowdown months
    Its Hurricane season
    Its people saving money to later place down on a new home.
    Its the bad weather.
    18 May 2011, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • tigersam
    , contributor
    Comments (1707) | Send Message
    There are several good indicators
    I am paying same amount of money for milk last ten years...
    If I go Friday night out for dinner without reservation, the wait time is 1 hour...
    Corporate profits up..
    Apple forward PE is 10
    FCX PE is 8
    If Microsoft makes the same profit for next 6 years, they can buy themselves.
    Multinational US companies have so much money in the bank and they decided to bring back there are no bills in the circulation. We need to print more.
    18 May 2011, 08:40 PM Reply Like
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