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Chinese Q4 GDP rises 7.9% Y/Y vs. 7.8% consensus, 7.4% prior. December industrial production...

Chinese Q4 GDP rises 7.9% Y/Y vs. 7.8% consensus, 7.4% prior. December industrial production +10.3% Y/Y vs. 10.2% consensus. December retail sales +15.2% Y/Y vs. 15.1% consensus. Chart of GDP vs. industrial production over the past 2 years.
Comments (14)
  • Sam Liu
    , contributor
    Comments (3864) | Send Message
     
    What comprises of the concensus?
    17 Jan 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    China must have gotten the analyst disease. Analyst consensus is also usually short by $0.01. If you wanted to be a much better than average analyst you would just need to add $0.01 to every consensus.
    17 Jan 2013, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • HoldAndBuyInvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (146) | Send Message
     
    Paulo, we know that you were short of iron ore at $87. Since then it has jumped 80%. No need to feel upset. Calm down.
    17 Jan 2013, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • Seth Walters
    , contributor
    Comments (675) | Send Message
     
    Paulo was wrong about iron ore (at least in the short term) but there's no need to rip him for it. Nobody gets calls right 100% of the time.
    18 Jan 2013, 02:14 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    I was? Where is that disclosure of me being short? The only thing I shorted was AUD/USD, successfully, 3 times.
    18 Jan 2013, 06:13 AM Reply Like
  • PSalerno
    , contributor
    Comments (3699) | Send Message
     
    It is fair to recognize that Seth prediction for iron year end price was the most accurate.
    18 Jan 2013, 07:33 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    Sure. I also wrote that since the money printing restarted all bets were off regarding the shares.
    18 Jan 2013, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • PSalerno
    , contributor
    Comments (3699) | Send Message
     
    Anyway it was a surprise to see iron ore price to hit 137 again, especially with steel price still down.
    18 Jan 2013, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    It went as high as >$150, some sort of short squeeze + money printing, all the markets are deeply distorted when the Fed prints $1 trillion per year.
    18 Jan 2013, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • divinecomedy
    , contributor
    Comments (466) | Send Message
     
    Can someone here tell me the best way to short iron ore? Not thinking of opening a position soon, but wasn't able to find an ETF for doing so.
    18 Jan 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    divine, there is no easy, direct way, to do it.

     

    The poster above saying I was "short iron ore" was basically lying. I couldn't be short even if I wanted to.

     

    There are swaps that trade on the thing in China, not easy for an individual to get access to them I guess. It's probably an OTC market as well.
    18 Jan 2013, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • PSalerno
    , contributor
    Comments (3699) | Send Message
     
    It is even difficult to get a real time price for iron.
    18 Jan 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • Sam Liu
    , contributor
    Comments (3864) | Send Message
     
    there was an article (WSJ, NYTimes?) some years ago that Cn's GDP calculation was sometimes greater or less than the actual.

     

    Sort of a line to project a plot.
    17 Jan 2013, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • john12310
    , contributor
    Comments (44) | Send Message
     
    Doesn't have to know the ball out, just beat.
    17 Jan 2013, 11:53 PM Reply Like
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