Topeka's Brian White gives in on Apple (AAPL), lowering his price target to $888 from $1,111. He...

Topeka's Brian White gives in on Apple (AAPL), lowering his price target to $888 from $1,111. He remains a bull though: "Estimate resets lower the bar for the future ... At the same time, we believe the profit and sales cycle will reach bottom" in FQ2. Shares -8.9% premarket.

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Comments (29)
  • spybreaker
    , contributor
    Comments (235) | Send Message
    Just shut up and get another job. Apparently anyone can throw price targets these days
    24 Jan 2013, 08:03 AM Reply Like
  • Brandond
    , contributor
    Comments (500) | Send Message
    Somebody close the barn door already, ALL the horses have now escaped.


    This idiot will now have lots of people that follow him so they can make investment decisions opposite of his calls.


    $1,111 Puhleassssssse
    24 Jan 2013, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • broncubnug
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
    what's next Lucky 7's
    24 Jan 2013, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • Arkeh Capital
    , contributor
    Comments (356) | Send Message
    444 (he had better chosen 666 in the first place)
    24 Jan 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Arkeh Capital
    , contributor
    Comments (356) | Send Message
    And here we are. I would suggest he upgrades to 555 from here.
    25 Jan 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Etoile Brilliant
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
    Wasn't he the high priest at the temple of Apple, or was that Gene Munster?
    24 Jan 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
    Come on, folks! He is perfectly reasonable. Mr. Market is the one that is messed up. The TTM PE of the S&P 500 is 17.46, according to the WSJ via a quick web: search.
    Apple's TTM according to YHOO is 44.15. 44.15X17.46=770.86. Apple has ~$150/sh in cash, assuming they have added a little since the qtr end, so subtracting cash gets you over his target. How many companies in the S&P 500 grew as fast as AAPL? Apple at $465 assumes imminent failure and implosion.
    24 Jan 2013, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (2751) | Send Message
    Let's look at it another way. Not crediting *anything* for the cash and simply pricing Apple at the same PE as the S&P 500 assumes what TTM EPS for a price of $465? 465/17.46=26.63! So, assuming Apple has exactly the same PE as the S&P 500, the market is giving no extra credit for the cash hoard and assuming earnings of only $26.63. They announced *terrible* earnings of $13.81 yesterday. I think they can manage another $12.82 over the next three quarters. They will likely get close to that next quarter! Finally, is Apple worth no premium to the S&P 500? Mr. Market is insane.
    24 Jan 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • MAdeelA
    , contributor
    Comments (62) | Send Message
    Low 400's coming right up. This is the first of many downgrades/target price adjustments.
    24 Jan 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Misho ILIEV
    , contributor
    Comments (629) | Send Message
    It seems to have a support at 450. But low 400 for the next 3 months is not out of the question.


    Still Apple did not that badly. Once the spooked sellers sell off whatever they are desperate to dump on the market Apple could go up to around 480.


    Hard to predict though.
    24 Jan 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Michael O'Neill
    , contributor
    Comments (474) | Send Message
    Guys you sound more childish that Brian White.


    The Apple share price is not working to any logic. The company grew 27% yoy. The iPad business barely three years old as a stand alone business produces more profit than Google!


    Apple can't win. They beat EPS, have $54bn of revenue (would be $58bn with 14 weeks), generate an addition $16bn of cash to $137bn and still get slammed. Crazy. Brian Whites valuation is fair, anyone can see that.
    24 Jan 2013, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • krichard
    , contributor
    Comments (376) | Send Message
    None of this makes sense for the same reasons Bernie Madoff's returns made no sense, its fraud and manipulation. It is too easy for traders and hedge funds to manipulate both the stock and the communication, and Apple has made it very easy for them.


    Their past practices for years was not to communicate with the market and provide insultingly low guidance. The quality of the guidance under Cook has improved, but the reputation of Apple guiding low has stuck with them, so analysts have used Apples historic deviation to set the analysts numbers which are now too aggressive. Apple has simply made it to easy for the stock to be manipulated.


    If that wasn't enough, Apple made an enormous mistake introducing so many new products simultaneously, and especially going into their largest sealing season. Anyone who has been around manufacturing at all knows that the start up of a new product produces higher costs and lower output until well up the learning curve. This was a massive stake because it led to low margins and insufficient inventory to meet demand. That said, rather than focusing the management error, the shills and rumor monger's focused on the tighter margins and said the competition caused the margin compression and Apple is now dealing in a commoditized market segment. Nothing could be further from the truth, but this only provides more fuel for the manipulaters to beat the stock price down.
    24 Jan 2013, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • ssl23
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
    The problem with apple is not the business its the way management has handled its relationship with the analyst and the street.


    It was fine , when you didnt need them and your growing 100% y/y on revenue, but now as growth slowed the management failed to warn its investors with that guidance and was silent as analysts made wild guesses at its business.


    Listening to that conference you can sense the concern as they had NO idea that what they are saying would be a shock to to customers is one thing, but to investors??


    On top of that...they are not giving a earning number next quarter, so now everyone's guessing that its because...its bad.


    Hey..they bought 2bb value of its shares back last quarter...while the stock lost 200bb in value....ohh and another 50bb just since the earnings report.
    Thats why the street is not pricing in cash......they're running the co. like a private company
    24 Jan 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • aperture1
    , contributor
    Comments (200) | Send Message
    I agree they handled the call poorly and their investor relations is nonexistent.


    Cook needs to be able to describe the vision that Apple is working towards, maybe not in great detail, but at least sketch out what the future will look like for the industry in broad brush strokes otherwise everyone is wondering if Apple has any vision at all, especially since Jobs is gone.
    24 Jan 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • MAdeelA
    , contributor
    Comments (62) | Send Message
    I don't think Tim Cook gets any respect to lead $AAPL in the right direction.


    He didn't create AAPL, unlike the founders of AMZN or GOOG who are still alive and leading their companies. People have more faith in their management and the stock prices reflect that.
    24 Jan 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • krichard
    , contributor
    Comments (376) | Send Message
    You are spot on, and if they continue to allow the hedge funds and shills define them and the share price goes much lower, I wouldn't be surprised if they don't take themselves private.


    Apple just hasn't been responsible, and their disdain for shareholders just seems to continue. That said, where is the Board, where is the new Chairman who's supposed to be a professional. Apple has a problem, and it's Apple, not the competition!!
    24 Jan 2013, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • krichard
    , contributor
    Comments (376) | Send Message
    You are so right, and you've articulated my concern perfectly. Apple themselves are the problem. This isn't a small company any longer, this is a massive company followed by virtually the entire financial world and they act like children! If the Chairman doesn't develop an effective means of communication with the market, he should be removed.


    I realize Jobs didn't talk to the market, but that was then and this fiasco is now....Jobs wouldn't even be able to get by with now if conducted himself the way he had previously. These people need to grow up and become responsible.
    24 Jan 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • Matt Jonza
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
    oh brian... maybe if that was a 5 year price target
    24 Jan 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • SoldHigh
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
    Herd-mentality Analysts are so worthless. Once this guy caves and makes 222 his tgt, the stock will be a buy.
    24 Jan 2013, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Closet Iguana
    , contributor
    Comments (155) | Send Message
    Analysts these days think they're rock stars.
    1111 to 888 - whatever whatsyourface.
    24 Jan 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • what do I know
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
    So, here we are: Mr. Gundlache
    Mr. Kass
    Everybody said about the "cash pile"- may be Apple need a money manager. Maybe Apple need to borrow some money so it could deduct some interest payment and at the same bring home some money from abroad so the additional tax on the repatriated money could be balance against the deduction on borrowed money.
    The supply crunch, made quite ruckus
    Apple's entry in to China through China Mobil
    Every other smartphone are already in China
    Those emerging countries won't be able to buy the costly Apple phone, may be the lower priced phones will bring down the "gross margin"
    Samsung is on Apple case 24 hours a day and they are winning
    no new innovation from Apple
    the gradually lowering of "gross margin" from mid forty to high 30's
    the "management shake" up, the chief engineer and the marketing guys


    Conclusion: the management should be more attuned to the street, and may be Apple need more senior level executives to care for the investor, because street has been very vocal about what the street needs from Apple.


    24 Jan 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • jimmyjimmy2
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
    for real investors (not traders), the lower the share price, the better value you get for your money. just buy more, if apple can do as well as it does now for the next a few years, we are happy.
    24 Jan 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • tawse57
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
    The big growth is gone out of Apple - are you really going to spend 450 bucks on a stock that might gradually climb up 50 bucks over the coming year... with all the risk of sticking that much money into a single stock?
    24 Jan 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • moneyTalksBSWalks
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
    I really wonder why we continue to have an antiquated practice of Wall St analysts. These opinions are worth less than toilet paper. If these "analysts" cannot even get things right for the most widely followed stock then there is no credibility left to their "opinion"
    24 Jan 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • tsabar
    , contributor
    Comments (153) | Send Message
    I will not even attempt to reason with the bears that try to molest this stock, in spite of it's solid quarterly results. Match it against any company in the universe. A bunch of crooks on a rampage where's the SEC?
    24 Jan 2013, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Shoot4DaPin
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
    I can't believe investors still take these analysts seriously. I stopped listening when an analyst slapped a $1k price tag on QCOM in 2000. That marked the top of the tech bubble. $1k+ predictions have marked the top of AAPL.
    24 Jan 2013, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • tiger8896
    , contributor
    Comments (720) | Send Message
    Slumps?? There has got to be a better adjective for a stock that is down 60 points. I believe this is the largest point decline in Apple's history but I am not sure, if it is we should see this headline in the WSJ tomorrow "Apple crashes, largest one day loss in the companies history".
    24 Jan 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • pman6
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
    Hey Topeka, got any job openings?


    I can be a slick analyst too.


    My estimate is 666, because that's what the devil wants.
    24 Jan 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • what do I know
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
    So, his P.T. was $1111. and what did it do. Nothing! Similarly, now his Price Target is $888. and what will it do? Nothing! You just do not know how and what Apple has to do to get there. The Analysts just analyzes some Inanimate number, they do not have any Executing experience, I think we are pay too much attention to them, otherwise, how come NFLX and AMZN came into being! For these analysts, they still continue support for AMZN and NFLX. These Analysts make mockery out Financial Theory. Tell any of these brilliant analysts to run some operation, and see when they run for Air. So, tell Mr. White how long will it before AAPL will be at $888.
    26 Jan 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
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