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Tesla Motors (TSLA +2.3%) has enough demand for its Model S to more than offset any increase in...

Tesla Motors (TSLA +2.3%) has enough demand for its Model S to more than offset any increase in cancellation rates if the economy worsens, reasons SA contributor FOHC Resources. The firm averages 89 orders per day and had piled up more than 18K by the end of 2012 even before selling efforts in Europe and Asia ramped up. Though shares could see a volatile ride, it's also increasingly possible that a round of unexpected good news could catch the considerable number of investors betting against Tesla off-guard. Just ask NFLX shorts.
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Comments (10)
  • wyostocks
    , contributor
    Comments (8229) | Send Message
     
    "a round of unexpected good news............."

     

    And what might that "news" be?
    24 Jan 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Viaa
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    They already got production rate of over 400 car per week, officially confirmed. Tesla also met at least bottom of projected car delivery targets for last year. Demand is super-strong, directors are now talking about assembly line able to produce up to 50k units a year. Even the very fact that they are thinking about such thing is a great news. But I would not personally expect them to produce more then 35k Model S in 2013.
    24 Jan 2013, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • MTriantafelow
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    It seems increasingly likely that they have already sold out 2013 production and the reservation rate seems to be outpacing the production rate despite a price increase. Sales are only getting started in Europe and Asia, yet the US demand alone is enough for them to sell the 20k they were planning to build each year.

     

    The factory is now operating at the 20k rate, so I think it is very likely Elon will tell us that they are increasing their target for 2013 to 25k or 30k units to try to catch up to demand.

     

    I think this will catch some shorts off-guard.
    24 Jan 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Cassina Tarsia
    , contributor
    Comments (646) | Send Message
     
    Surprise! Surprise! Surprise! Isn't this what many of the new stories have been saying all along ... never-mind the naysayers? Maybe Elon Musk really does have his act together, not only with SpaceX and Solar City, but Tesla as well. Who would have thought ... ? A bit of sarcasm ...
    24 Jan 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • alonsop
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    I would hope to see them stabilize at the 20K rate for six months, Q1 and Q2, and then ramp to a higher rate. I think they need to stabilize because their delivery pipeline, from the Tesla forums, seems stressed at current rates and is going through a learning curve.

     

    However, if they announced an intent to kick up the rate for Q3 and Q4, upping the yearly total to 25K, this would have a dramatic effect on the bottom line and definitely catch the shorts, who are taking a bath as it is, off guard.

     

    What would power such an announcement are the reservation numbers. If they have indeed sold out 2013 or close to it, then an intent to raise production is absolutely credible.
    24 Jan 2013, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • mfsjss
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    Does production capacity mean working three shifts or only one? If just one, then there is much room for expansion without additional heavy outlays for capital. With the expansion of the number of retail outlets, the expectation for a continuous increase in daily output seems very likely.
    24 Jan 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • hallkevin
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    The key to their growth is how compelling is their product. I just took delivery of a Model S and after two weeks of driving it all I can say is OMG!!!! It is an amazing technical accomplishment. Demand will accelerate. I will be ordering a second Tesla for my spouse.
    25 Jan 2013, 03:16 AM Reply Like
  • PorfirioR
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    I see a Tesla Edition Toyota in my crystal ball assembled in a Toyota plant with a Tesla power train. Going head-to-head with the Chevy Volt right out of the gate without Tesla having to build new infrastructure or getting in a car market segment where they can lose.
    25 Jan 2013, 05:22 AM Reply Like
  • Mr_TEV
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    @porfirioR you can call that the Rav4 EV already available for sale
    25 Jan 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • dayslave
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    I am totally rooting for Tesla's success but there's no need to make superlative statements like this, "Tesla Motors (TSLA +2.3%) has enough demand for its Model S to more than offset any increase in cancellation rates if the economy worsens..." It is categorically untrue if the cancellation rate increases to 100%. Is that likely, no, but it would fall under the category of "any increase" in cancellation rates. Next time just say, "any likely increase."
    25 Jan 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
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