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Want to beat the market? Easy; for starters, don't count the market's total returns. Many...

Want to beat the market? Easy; for starters, don't count the market's total returns. Many advisers and newsletter writers - bound only by ethics, rather than SEC rules - like to leave out market dividends in comparing performance, and it's no small gap: Over the past decade, S&P 500 is up 0.72% annually without dividends and 2.81% with them.
Comments (15)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9441) | Send Message
     
    And don't compare the last decade...unless you believe we will have
    2 - 45% bear markets every decade....
    4 Jun 2011, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • BlueOkie
    , contributor
    Comments (4708) | Send Message
     
    40% of the markets returns are from dividends. As far as comparisons, they are probably not worth the paper they are written on. Give me any two reasonable investments and I can make one look better than the other. The key is I get to chose when and for how long the comparison. If I'm comparing bonds to stocks, I'll start at market top and run it to market bottom - bonds win. If I want to compare stocks to bonds I start at the market bottom and run it to the top, stocks win. Many variations. If you have anyone saying they consistently beat the market then "RUN FOREST RUN!"
    4 Jun 2011, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • Windsun33
    , contributor
    Comments (4263) | Send Message
     
    "If you have anyone saying they consistently beat the market then "RUN FOREST RUN!"

     

    I dunno about that. I know of a few "advisors" that have beaten the market in a negative sense for years...
    4 Jun 2011, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • MarketGuy
    , contributor
    Comments (3983) | Send Message
     
    The key is to have a link to Congress and/or a good friend at a TBTF. Oh, you may want to invest in an HFT server as well. With all that, you have a chance of "beating the market".
    4 Jun 2011, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    I love it. I hope a lot of you are wearing diapers. Some bad data and the market is down huge

     

    Temporary. Take a minute to look through the data and see what is really going on.

     

    The corporate bond market is still flashing green.
    Listen to the CEO of Union Pacific and other larger industrials.

     

    Keep your heads. And don't listen to the doom clowns. You wll spend less on Depends.

     

    E
    4 Jun 2011, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • nobby73
    , contributor
    Comments (1177) | Send Message
     
    The market has had a couple of sharp down days, following some poor economic data that really took the "experts" by surprise.

     

    However, to suggest that people are "cowards" for choosing to sell is utterly ridiculous. The individual investor should always focus on wealth preservation, and anyone who has had a good run should know not to get too greedy.

     

    I cannot make an argument to be long this market at these levels, and would argue that there are a number of signal flashing red right now. I don't think we're about to reach the total collapse point, but I think we are in for a nasty correction before they make another attempt to stimulate out of it.
    4 Jun 2011, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    ok here is the big difference

     

    at the risk of boring you and others.

     

    in 2008 McDonalds Coporration among others could not get overnight money. McDonalds could not get overnight money. what does that tell you?
    in October 2008 I could not bankers to return phone calls - and when they did they could not meet - guys I have done business with for years were scared to death.

     

    now flash forward

     

    yesterday morning - while the jobs report came out I had breakfast a major New York based group that finances mid market companies. - they want to help me refi my loan that I cobbled together in the summer 2009 at usury rates.

     

    I believe debt markets are smarter than equity markets and I take my cues from that. do you think I was buying or selling when my banker buddies weren't returning calls in October 2008?

     

    you can sell now if you like - you might think that's the smart thing to do if the market drops another 5% in June and July and congratulate yourself but guess what...in a year it will be higher and can you be sure to get back in to catch that wave? I will stay in and accumulate and get paid to wait until my buddies stop returning calls or probably at least until they stop picking up the tab for breakfast. Don't worry - you'll be the second to know.

     

    E
    4 Jun 2011, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • BlueOkie
    , contributor
    Comments (4708) | Send Message
     
    If you are not long the market, where are you putting your money? Cash?
    5 Jun 2011, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9441) | Send Message
     
    There is a single indicator that tells you if there is going to be a recession...on second thought.....never mind....
    4 Jun 2011, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Jack Weyland
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    i don't need to leave out dividends when i compare my results to the S&P 500. i'm up 37% per year since 2002 and 65% year over year. check out my SA profile to learn more.
    4 Jun 2011, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • BlueOkie
    , contributor
    Comments (4708) | Send Message
     
    SO you started all investing in 2002? We had a recession in 2001 and 2002 was a good time to start investing. In the last year you could have thrown darts and be up 65%, prior to June 3. Sounds like data mining
    5 Jun 2011, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • Mad_Max_A_Million
    , contributor
    Comments (1175) | Send Message
     
    Econodoc: If you think there is a wave to be caught, you belong on the north shore of Hono in January, not anywhere near here.
    4 Jun 2011, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Machiavelli999
    , contributor
    Comments (829) | Send Message
     
    This entire year is a repeat of 2010. The increasingly monetary tightening stance of the Fed is driving everything. Once they change their tune about raising rates and talk about QE3, then and ONLY THEN will this market turn around.

     

    This is the easiest year to trade in my lifetime. Go short and read every Fed governor speech waiting until they start talking about QE3. Then go long.
    4 Jun 2011, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Morgan
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    Machiavelli, I can't see the future, but Mr. Bernanke has already decided on reinvesting, so yes QE-2 is ending, but monetary policy would continue to be loose and chances of a Fed hike in the next three quarters is zero. The dollar is still under pressure.....

     

    I went to 40% cash(highest% this year) on Tuesday rally and I'm ready to buy if the S&P drops to 1,250 level, and of course,the last two days I closed my puts as my profits went up so much in such short span of time....

     

    4 Jun 2011, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9441) | Send Message
     
    We get 3 to 4 selloffs a year...we are in the midst of the second
    selloff...
    5 Jun 2011, 06:17 AM Reply Like
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