Seeking Alpha

Exit polls show left-winger Ollanta Humala with a 5 point lead over Keiko Fujumori in Peru's...

Exit polls show left-winger Ollanta Humala with a 5 point lead over Keiko Fujumori in Peru's presidential election. A pal of Hugo Chavez, Humala has toned down the anti-capitalist rhetoric after barely losing the 2006 race. The battle isn't over as overseas ballots are expected to tilt towards Fujimori. Peruvian shares have been hammered over the past months on worries of a Humala victory.
Comments (11)
  • Its over, Humala wins. He won't take over until July 29th though, so still time to get money out. Economic activity, such as housing sales, new construction, etc., has already been grinding to a halt due to the uncertainty of the election.

     

    You will hear about how he is the people's choice, but really he received less than 32% of the vote in the general election when more centrist candidates were available (all the main candidates in Peru would be considered left of center in terms of U.S. politics). He spent a lot of money to convince people that he was the lesser of the two evils in the second round and did run a very slick campaign facillitated by Brazilians who worked previously for Lula. Make no mistake though, Humala is another Chavez puppet, not another Lula.
    5 Jun 2011, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • Estamos viendo la entrada del socialismo en Peru, la marioneta de Chavez gano, espero una estrepitosa caida del mercado de Peru...

     

    Peru's people would suffer, as Humala installs Chavez policies on Peru...expect more taxes on mining companies, expect more regulations, expect more punishment on private capital and more nationalization.....the dire consequence: capital would flee.
    5 Jun 2011, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • Capital's going to run out of places to flee to before too long.
    5 Jun 2011, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • There are still good places in which capital and private property is protected like Chile and Panama...
    5 Jun 2011, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • Yes, and Monday I plan to move my small stake in (EPU) over to (ECH). I try to keep around 8% of my total in Latin America, but avoid anything remotely Chavez-like. I have not looked at Panama, but when the new canal expansion is finished it could be a huge boon.
    6 Jun 2011, 04:59 AM Reply Like
  • The whole world seems on a slow march towards statism. A very predictable outcome from the Great Recession.

     

    I have mentioned this before but its worth repeating. Conservatives main weakness is ther inability to understand that the longer the recession lasts the more people turn towards the statist policies of the left.
    5 Jun 2011, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mach: slow march? Statism is no respecter of the left/right dichotomy. Chavez appeals to the poor. Pinochet appeals to the rich. Depressions appeal to wannabe dictators of all stripes.
    5 Jun 2011, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Well, there was no recession in Peru. There was strong economic growth, jobs growth, a 15% reduction in poverty and relatively little inflation. However, a well-financed (thanks to Hugo Chavez), well-run campaign was able to put Humala into office. He had some really slick adds with custom songs touting his virtues. He spent a lot more money than any other candidate.

     

    He also filed a third plan (the first two were too controversial) of government to reassure people that he wasn't going the way of Hugo Chavez, but that goes out the window quickly. He also attacked Fujimori as being associated with government corruption (her father yes, her no). His success was in convincing people that he is the "honest" candidate who will eliminate corruption, crack down on drug traffickers and reduce crime. Seems odd coming from a guy who used to sell space on military transports for drug traffickers. Also, expect him to quickly release Antuaro Humala (the butcher of Andahuaylas) from prison despite his promise not to do so. When Antuaro took Andahuaylas (expecting the entire country to rise up and follow him), he was praised by Ollanta--I guess that was in 2005 so people forgot already.
    5 Jun 2011, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • I understand that machiavelli, it is simple logic, bad times equal politicians offering more spending and more welfare to gain votes, and there is the dissent of the unemployed who want higher taxes for the rich....
    5 Jun 2011, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • Well Joe, its not like the rich are doing anything for the unemployed. Unless of course, your talking about the emerging market unemployed, where all their tax breaks are being invested.
    6 Jun 2011, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • "But investors still worry he would increase state control over the economy and throw away fiscal discipline. Peru’s stock market and its sol currency have stumbled on his rise in the polls and were expected to tumble on Monday."

     

    www.ft.com/cms/s/0/940...
    6 Jun 2011, 05:05 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)