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Dec. New Home Sales: 369K vs. 388K expected, 398K prior revised.
Jan 25 2013, 10:00 ET
Dec. New Home Sales:
vs. 388K expected, 398K prior revised.
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Completed homes for sale 43,000...no recession has started unless
this number got at least above 90,000 and most times well above
25 Jan 2013, 10:03 AM
Not to be an a-hole but remember the old "nothing has ever happened unless x and y have occurred" is the death of any good prognosticator :)
Your point I believe is that we usually only get FED tightening when the fear of inflation boils up enough to cause inversion of the yield curve which historically has been a phenomenal predictor of upcoming recession.
Do we have ZIRP because of weak demand or is ZIRP holding down the yield curve?
Is the spread as large as it would be without ZIRP?
Sniffing out the yield curve in this environment isn't easy. Greespan once said he was surprised that the long end refused to budge once they began raising rates in that last cycle. Will the same thing happen again?
Just saw this chart a second ago:
25 Jan 2013, 10:16 AM
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