Seeking Alpha

"Apple's (AAPL) glory days are now behind it," said FBN's Shebly Seyrafi on Thursday morning...

"Apple's (AAPL) glory days are now behind it," said FBN's Shebly Seyrafi on Thursday morning with the stock at $450. On Sept. 13 - the day after the iPhone 5 launch and the shares at $680 - Seyrafi reiterated a Buy rating and boosted his price target to $1,000. (FBN now maintains an Outperform on Apple with a lowered target of $650.)
Comments (119)
  • criticalbear
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    apparently so are shebly seyrafi's
    26 Jan 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • trexia
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Rank @ #1 Samsung Galaxy Note 2 -People's and Expert's Choice Ranking http://t.co/waRAs7PS
    Beating all other smart phones !!! (RIMM) (AAPL) (GOOG)

     

    We upgraded to Samsung Galaxy Note 2:

     

    I liked a @YouTube video http://t.co/1D4CtQge Why The Samsung Galaxy Note 2 Is Better Than Your Phone *If you don't have one* [3D
    26 Jan 2013, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • rperson
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    And Samsung is apparently warning of decreasing smart phone margins. So what will happen to the stock price? Maybe there's another Apple product thy can rip off Nd get them back in the game. Lower cost iPhone with plastic back on he way. And larger screen version. See later Samsung.
    26 Jan 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • gensearch2
    , contributor
    Comments (1390) | Send Message
     
    Odd ... over 80% of the smartphones sold by AT&T this last quarter were iPhones. .... Are you figuring they were all returned and people picked up a Note?
    26 Jan 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • jsmunroe59
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    Demand exceeds supply, the stores are packed, international distribution channels just starting to open. CNBC should be sued (or Comcast) for their obvious daily public attacks against aapl. They send chills in shallow market/equity analysts thinking who then dump the stock. They (CNBC) DIS the stock ALL day long every day. It's insane and worthy of legal action since Comcast is a legitimate nemesis of aapl. They are a content provider and as Jim Cramer, a CNBC worthless inaccurate speculative contributor somehow knows, AAPL will not get content providers to negotiate with AAPL to support the iTV initiative. He then says he sold his positions in AAPL. Now how did Cramer know this???? Hmmmmmm.? Stinks of Comcast/CNBC insider information. In short, AAPL should buy Comcast, fire the CNBC shallow unethical commentators and get on with iTV! Propagate this please. Where there is smoke, there is fire!!!!!!!
    26 Jan 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Yokyok
    , contributor
    Comments (325) | Send Message
     
    because of the launch of the iphone5 OBVIOUSLY. wake up
    26 Jan 2013, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • jsmunroe59
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    Demand exceeds supply, the stores are packed, international distribution channels just starting to open. CNBC should be sued (or Comcast) for their obvious daily public attacks against aapl. They send chills in shallow market/equity analysts thinking who then dump the stock. They (CNBC) DIS the stock ALL day long every day. It's insane and worthy of legal action since Comcast is a legitimate nemesis of aapl. They are a content provider and as Jim Cramer, a CNBC worthless inaccurate speculative contributor somehow knows, AAPL will not get content providers to negotiate with AAPL to support the iTV initiative. He then says he sold his positions in AAPL. Now how did Cramer know this???? Hmmmmmm.? Stinks of Comcast/CNBC insider information. In short, AAPL should buy Comcast, fire the CNBC shallow unethical commentators!
    26 Jan 2013, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • LumiaMan
    , contributor
    Comments (324) | Send Message
     
    samsung plastidc junk for people with no style or taste, poor quality, ill take the 920 anyday or an iphone 4, sorry iphone 5 pos
    26 Jan 2013, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mike Maher
    , contributor
    Comments (2482) | Send Message
     
    This thread makes me think Apple goes lower. Too many people talking about how its the media's fault, or that Samsung and Nokia make poor products, and not enough acknowledging that cell phones are a cut throat business, and Google gives away android for free. When one of your largest competitors is giving away the product (in this case, the operating system) for free, its going to hurt margins. The company gets roughly 60% of its revenue from phones. People can talk iTV nonsense all they want, ask Samsung, Panosonic, and Sony what margins are like in that business. TV's are a commodity business, Apple wont find the margins there it needs to keep the street happy.

     

    Take a look again in the $380s
    26 Jan 2013, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • criticalbear
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    Apple isn't going into the TV business to make TVs. What a backwards way of thinking. You don't think apple doesn't realize it's a low margin business?

     

    Guess what, dumb phones was a low margin business too, until Apple ripped the smart phone business wide open. Computers are low margin, so are tablets. Apple just keeps getting more and more customers.
    26 Jan 2013, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • redarrow5150
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    So how do YOU explain when they were talking the stock all the way up to $700 with the constant chatter about AAPL last year? (Crickets chirping)
    26 Jan 2013, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • rasanders22
    , contributor
    Comments (529) | Send Message
     
    Didn't iPhone sales fall while Samsung sales increased? I dont see how you can claim aapl is getting more customers.
    26 Jan 2013, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • Tusc
    , contributor
    Comments (277) | Send Message
     
    What makes you think that AAPL is going to be making an actual set if they can't get a decent margin. My guess it will be some kind of service that will offer al a carte tv ,controlled by many of their devices. The same media that pushed it over 700 will push the story on the other side down. That's just the way it is. We do kind of over hype everything, good or bad, so the stock will settle soon.Just wonder if that earnings report would have such an over reaction if it wasn't named Apple. Actually if you look at the report there was a lot to like, however I get the naysayers. Only in America.
    26 Jan 2013, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mike Maher
    , contributor
    Comments (2482) | Send Message
     
    Apple sells all those things at high margins because they can differentiate their products, or because they pretty much invented the category (iPod, iPad). If they arent going into TV's to make TV's, one would assume you mean they'll have a more refined interface, menu, guide, etc. Which would be great, except that everyone needs a set top box to access most features from the content providers. Apple is having trouble negotiating a way to bypass that, since the cable companies operate in near monopolies, and see little reason to change. The difference between Apple selling smartphones and TVs is that there are several companies that profitably sell mobile phones around the world. There are no companies that profitably sell TVs.

     

    Love the products, but dont love stocks.

     

    O and I just looked it up, Motorola had gross margins of 33.5% in Q1 2004. Remember how popular the Motorola Razor was???? How'd that end up?

     

    http://bit.ly/10YQWOc
    26 Jan 2013, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • JeffreyLangBoyd
    , contributor
    Comments (645) | Send Message
     
    Sales did not decline. They were up substantially. The future rate of growth projected by AAPL was less than many people expected.
    26 Jan 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • criticalbear
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    it's important to note that the "future" is three months

     

    "O and I just looked it up, Motorola had gross margins of 33.5% in Q1 2004. Remember how popular the Motorola Razor was???? How'd that end up?"

     

    I don't think people really realize how powerful Apple is as a software company. Ya they make sexy hardware that people want, but without iTunes store, Apple would not have been successful, at all. Same with the TV set. I'm not convinced they're coming out with a TV, because I think they could just release software for their AppleTV.

     

    The first to have an all encompassing media service wins, Apple and Amazon realizes this, but I think Apple will be the first to get there.
    26 Jan 2013, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • Dean Scarpinato
    , contributor
    Comments (372) | Send Message
     
    And with all their ripoff underhanded business and 2 for 1 give aways Apple made over twice the profit. M, Samsung has exhausted the lowend market and gotten all the people who will renig on the contracts and want something for nothing every time they come into the store. Apple, with its high end clients makes an additional avg of $80 per phone w/downloads.

     

    M, these folks who can afford it will be upgrading and rarely head to the low rent part of town to get their phones unlocked and all the other junk that goes with the give away two for one wannabe hip young club kid/MC Rapper market.

     

    And we have a pipeline chock full of innovation so we won't be relying solely on handsets going forward though we will continue to dominate. And as for that increased competition that Samsung is warning about...could they mean Apple coming into China?
    27 Jan 2013, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mike Maher
    , contributor
    Comments (2482) | Send Message
     
    Again, if you cannot acknowledge the other side of the argument, that Apple doesn't have a phone for China since it uses a different technology, that growth has slowed in the US, and that the phone carrier are pushing back on the subsidies, I think you are missing the point. The best thing Apple has going for it is getting people to build large itunes library's, and making it difficult to transfer out of itunes. If they can expand on that platform, I think they will be around for 20 + years. Without that, I'm not so sure. Again its hard to charge for something when others give it away for free. iTunes is a small profit center, Apple right now is a hardware company.
    27 Jan 2013, 02:24 AM Reply Like
  • rperson
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Right on CBear. Apple is getting into the TV business to sell content. Think iTunes for TV. The current cable model sucks. Why should I pay for content I never watch, like Home Shopping Channel and soccer? Apple will reinvent the clunky cable user interface and allow us to customize our content. And here's the biggy none of the analysts and naysayers can't seem to grasp: once Apple allows users to customize their content, the users profile is totally clear. What does tha mean? Laser targeted ad content that advertisers will pay a bloody fortune for. Let me repeat:

     

    -Reinvention of the user interface (probably Siri-based)
    - customized content "on demand" iTunes for TV
    - Custom content equals highly accurate user profile equals laser targeted ads equals huge ad revenues for Apple
    - Apple now morphs into a hardware/software/content media platform. TV from both a user and media stand point reinvented

     

    This was Steve Jobs plan all along. Apple is going to be laughing all the way to the bank. This will be the next big innovation. And the analysts and knuckle headed naysayers don't have the intelligence or the vision to see what is right in front of them.
    27 Jan 2013, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • trexia
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Now at Rank #1 worldwide !!!
    Samsung says that had already sold 100 millions Galaxy phones $RIMM $AAPL too late for Blackberry 10? http://t.co/TrhrN2iv
    27 Jan 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • trexia
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Read: Now at Rank #1 worldwide !!!
    Samsung says that had already sold 100 millions Galaxy phones $RIMM $AAPL too late for Blackberry 10? http://t.co/TrhrN2iv
    27 Jan 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mike Maher
    , contributor
    Comments (2482) | Send Message
     
    How is Apple going to convince the networks to unbundle? And websites (facebook) already have a pretty clear idea of who people are, and that advertising isn't making a fortune.
    27 Jan 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • rocback
    , contributor
    Comments (975) | Send Message
     
    Over 67% of all phones sold this Q by Verizon were Apple. Over 80% of ATT phones were Apple. For the first time ever Apple sold over 50% of all U S smart phones this Q. Let's stick to facts not opinion because you know what they say about opinions...
    27 Jan 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • rocback
    , contributor
    Comments (975) | Send Message
     
    Growth has not slowed in the U S. this month was the first time EVER U S sales were more than 50% Apple. As for China Mobile, Tim Cook will be announcing that soon.
    27 Jan 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Iddawg
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    I am new to the market. I have purchased Apple as a long term investment. After reading all the negativity concerning AAPL I'm not sure I did the right thing. Not sure what I'm going to do; at this point in time I am thinking about selling and getting out completely. All I hear is AAPL has hit bottom, "The king is dead, long live the king," etc, etc, etc......
    27 Jan 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • XRTrader
    , contributor
    Comments (609) | Send Message
     
    Mike - if you google you will find many nice articles from pre-Iphone release of commentators saying that there were no margins in selling smartphones and AAPL had no business getting into a business they did not understand.
    27 Jan 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • op6396
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    AAPL is a real buying opportunity. Oversold. Looking forward to those explanations as to why the bears were wrong.
    27 Jan 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mike Maher
    , contributor
    Comments (2482) | Send Message
     
    XR - You'll also likely find a bunch of articles saying what a genius move it was to make phones. There's two sides to every trade. I just dont see how relying on sales of a product that doesnt exist yet, and has been rumored for years, is a sound investment strategy for a company whose market cap is north of $400 billion.

     

    There were 37.1 million flat panel TVs sold in the US in 2012, and Samsung has the leading market share at around 20%. Lets assume Apple's TV, if it ever comes out, takes a very generous 10% market share. Thats 3.7 million TV's. They'll probably price the TV's in the $2,000 range (premium brand), so they'll make $720 a TV, assuming a 36% gross margin given in their guidance. That gets you an additional $2.6 billion in profit, per year. They made $41 billion last year. Thats a 6% increase in profits. How about assuming a 30% market share (about 11 million TVs, per year) and $1,000 margins, thats $11 billion, but how long can that last? People don't buy a new TV every two years, or break them that often. BTW the average flat panel TV sells for about $1200 in the US, so its unlikely that Apple could sell that many TVs at such a high price point.

     

    A China Mobile announcement would be huge, but selling in China is going to mean margins are going to have to come down. I'm not sure how that affects the stock. Also the fact their cash horde is so big is absurd, they need to hire a CFO to manage that, or set aside half of it for a rainy day, and start paying a dividend based on a % of profits. That would get the stock moving.
    27 Jan 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Seeker959
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    Mike, you make some great points. I think the larger issues here are that Apple is up against the law of big numbers so can they continue to grow at a faster pace than the actual birth rate for the planet. They do have great saturation in the US but not as great worldwide so maybe if every person in China spends $700 on a phone then Apple will do well but something tells me margins in China will have to thin or Apple won't penetrate.

     

    The second issue is if Apple is such a great innovator as most people seem to think then why are they sitting on $137 billion in cash, surely they can't expect to burn through $100 billion while the US figures out what they are gonna do about ever passing a balanced budget or raising the debt ceiling, the truth to me seems to be that they came out with the iPhone and iPod that at the time were a revolution and iTunes also was a great innovation but now all they seem to come out with is a larger screen or a longer screen or some other "I" product that does the same thing as the rest of their lineup, Apple sells more iPhone 5's than any other handset on the market but if Samsung only had 1 handset then I bet they'd sell a lot more but Samsung has dozens of current models. I just can't be convinced that Apple is today an innovative company, they are becoming a utility, maybe AppleTV will be innovative but if all you are gonna do is stream the same crap that Comcast or Direct or Hulu or Netflix or any other content provider then I doubt there will be value in that and as for buying an AppleTV, well there is only 1 reason that I'd buy an Apple phone, Reliability and robust O/S, I like Android but it's not as reliable as iOS is but my TV's are perfectly reliable so why do I need Apple for that.

     

    I'd say if Apple is content socking away 40-50 billion a year in profits rather than inventing anything new then I'll move it to the same category as CSX but if they ever start to innovate again then maybe the will be the first trillion dollar market cap.

     

    At $450 a share though it looks like a value play as with $140 a share in cash and the div. plus the $40 to $45 a share in profits a year they ought to be worth at least $400 - $500
    27 Jan 2013, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • Sam Liu
    , contributor
    Comments (3864) | Send Message
     
    " socking away 40-50 billion a year in profits rather than inventing anything new "

     

    "At $450 a share = $140 a share in cash and the div. + the $40 to $45 a share in profits a year, worth at least $400 - $500"/ share
    27 Jan 2013, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • aparo201@google.com
    , contributor
    Comments (153) | Send Message
     
    No, sales of iPhones increased 29%, ipads 59%.
    28 Jan 2013, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • Epictetus
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    Once again highlighting the value of most sell side research....priceless!
    26 Jan 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • djmaestro
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    what, first a buy with 1000 $ target and now, everything has changed because of ... what exactly? a "miss"? c'mon, stop there,... get a real job
    26 Jan 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Hedgephone
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    Must....Herd....Lemmin...

     

    ^ Job Description for the Sell Side WS Analyst
    26 Jan 2013, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • cshoxie
    , contributor
    Comments (251) | Send Message
     
    Nice call Shebly. What was it that made you lower the target to 650? Was it last weeks 75 point plunge or the 265 point loss since September?
    26 Jan 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    ALL these analysts are clueless!!
    26 Jan 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Teutonic Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (2000) | Send Message
     
    Is this news? Huh?

     

    Just take a look of that price curve over the past 10 years. It is an exact mapping to that famous curve of 'elation, euphoria, bursting, crash, dejection, depressed, and finally abandonment'.

     

    Whenever something gets perpendicular up and up, remember this, you've seen it before!
    26 Jan 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Glenn Abrett
    , contributor
    Comments (1362) | Send Message
     
    cept in apples case there, so far, has always been the next chapter -- more elation and euphoria as the price skyrockets to new highs.

     

    Will this happen again? Who knows. I think the odds are pretty good. But by no means a certainty. Actually the only thing in this world that is certain is death, and you know what? They're working on that one too.
    26 Jan 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    The iCoffin?
    26 Jan 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Teutonic Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (2000) | Send Message
     
    ...and taxes...and they (congress and the 2 chiefs) are also working hard on that one too...ROFL! Really loud!
    26 Jan 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • choclinda
    , contributor
    Comments (43) | Send Message
     
    Oh1 Herr.... hang your head in shame. You name alone makes me want to say more, but I wouldn't stoop that low.
    26 Jan 2013, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    Oh right, you checked your sense of humor at the door.

     

    Oddly enough, I held AAPL shares in the past. I've also owned various Apple computers for over 18 years. I like Apple products, though some of the recent changes are not much to my liking. On AAPL shares, when everyone from barristas, to taxi drivers, to Jim Cramer was saying "buy", then it was time for me to say "bye".
    26 Jan 2013, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • rperson
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    How cute, Herr Commandant Hansa.
    26 Jan 2013, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    Danke
    26 Jan 2013, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • Seeker959
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    Taxes aren't a certainty in this country... Maybe in Europe but the US is a socialist economy, not all pay taxes.
    27 Jan 2013, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • Teutonic Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (2000) | Send Message
     
    ~47% may pay no federal income tax; but they may succumb to other taxes as sales tax, property tax, custom and import tax, gasoline tax, hotel/dinning out tax, and other fees as car licenses, fishing licenses, airport/airfare surcharges, too numerous to list here.

     

    Hiring a tax preparer to file considering the complexity of the tax code is also a form of tax as well. I am retired and do not want the stress to figuring out those numbers. My annual charge by an H&R Block CPA is about $400. I do consider this as a form of tax as well.

     

    Frankly I do not understand why the code be made so complex, but then it could be construed as a cottage industry inside and outside of the 3 levels of government.
    27 Jan 2013, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • Seeker959
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    I agree that taxes are almost a certainty but there is a very small population in the US that take more out of the system than they put in... I realize that these are people that you don't want to trade with as they are on food stamps and certainly not living the good life but I'm amazed at just how socialist the US has become from 1999 to now. I'm not one that will blame Obama for all the ills but in 13 years this country has seen a push to government reliance like never before.
    28 Jan 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Teutonic Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (2000) | Send Message
     
    Yes, Seeker959, the specter of rising worldwide liberalism and socialism is indeed awesome, the reason of which is left for Sociology scholars to tell us why.

     

    Personally I am totally amazed, flabbergasted, and frozen like a deer staring at the glaring bright headlights of an incoming auto.
    28 Jan 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • rperson
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    They are not analysts, they're "guessers" and mostly they guess wrong. Unfortunately they are tools that are used to manipulate share price of stocks like Apple.
    26 Jan 2013, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • RAP77
    , contributor
    Comments (348) | Send Message
     
    Right.

     

    He was wrong on Sept. 13, why would he be right now that he's flipped 180 degrees?
    26 Jan 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • we we see.
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    another EXPERT bites the dust, take out your wee gee board and give us more!!!
    26 Jan 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • we we see.
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    I am an expert also I say guess guess guess, and hope for one out of three
    26 Jan 2013, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • gensearch2
    , contributor
    Comments (1390) | Send Message
     
    We have one data point that Shelby is a contrarian indicator.

     

    I wonder if Shelby thinks he deserves a bonus this year for his spot on call on Apple?
    26 Jan 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • smanii
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    He was wrong then and he is wrong now. apple will be back
    26 Jan 2013, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • daltex
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    What a moron!
    26 Jan 2013, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • milehr
    , contributor
    Comments (475) | Send Message
     
    It seems that those "analysts" receive their forecasts in sealed enveloped, delivered by special couriers dressed like hobos.
    26 Jan 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • rperson
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Good god! Like lemmings these analysts. Hey, analysts out there, aren't you guys getting just a little bit embarrassed by this "see, I told you so" on Apple? You guys are now becoming entertainment versus serious sources of information. Really has become a clown show.
    26 Jan 2013, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • narsil
    , contributor
    Comments (51) | Send Message
     
    I'd like to see some accountability from some of the investment firms against their analysts who deceived the public with their projections. Peter Misek of Jefferies and Sheyrafi should be unemployed now. I suspect they're collecting bonuses rather than pink slips though.
    26 Jan 2013, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • croatkid1
    , contributor
    Comments (189) | Send Message
     
    ALL of these analysts have NO MONEY in the game; and so they move the levels and performances up/down as they choose -

     

    Look back and/or remember all the rubbish they were floating out concerning the problems Apple was having supposedly having with scheduling of materials so what do they do for 12-23-2013 ? why they sharpen up their pencils where Apple just cannot get there!!!

     

    Bah, Humbug !!! AND a POX on all of their houses.....
    26 Jan 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (2499) | Send Message
     
    And hell be buying it all the way down. That way he can tell his clients he delivered on his $650 target price not the $1000 he told em on Sept 13 . I think a lot of analysts are just wanna be lawyers who failed the bar exam and became analysts
    26 Jan 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • rickraff
    , contributor
    Comments (312) | Send Message
     
    AAPL is transitioning from a growth stock to a value stock, and that can be an ugly journey. Anyone who knows the history of the market knew when AAPL was at $700 with a market cap of $600 billion there was only one way to go... Down!

     

    Everyone already owned AAPL stock when the analysts came our with crazy estimates of $1,000! Of course the AAPL fanbois believed it. But, professionals fell for it too. It was gonna be "different this time."

     

    AAPL is a great company with fantastic products. But, if you want to see the path AAPL is headed then check the chart of MSFT 1997-2000. Or, check a CSCO chart....ugly stuff!

     

    If you own AAPL there is only one thing to do...SELL!!!
    26 Jan 2013, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Teutonic Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (2000) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I heard you, but it is a lot of pain to exit now.

     

    Look at the chart, it took almost 7 years to ramp it up to $700/share. Last Friday it reached its 52-week low of ~ $440.

     

    What does this mean? It means that the strong hand, the big boys had successfully boosted it to the peak over many years, then it dropped precipitately to its 52-week in 3 to 4 months. Slow but steady rise first, then rapid ramp up, then peak, then crash - a classical pattern - - completing a rapid passing of loot from the weak hand to the strong hand.

     

    Worse still, the money that were sucked in at the end period to propel it to the $700 level was phenomenal. I suppose a retail guy could buy a minimum 1 share, but still that was $700 plus commission. Block trades amount to Billions each day. A look at the technical indicator Chirkin Money Flow shows that massive dollar outflows had already consistently occurred in the same 3 to 4 month period.

     

    The perfect ambush is now complete.
    26 Jan 2013, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10165) | Send Message
     
    and they say the markets aren't rigged!!!
    26 Jan 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Teutonic Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (2000) | Send Message
     
    Rigged is fine but I don't want to be like Julius Caesar watching my back.

     

    ROFL! Loudest ever I made! Double ROFL!!!
    26 Jan 2013, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • rperson
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Good god Rickster, grow a pair! It's so easy to throw in with the doomsday crowd, so cheap and tawdry. Like being the weak, creepy guy that dies first among survivors in the airplane crash movies because he's such a freaked out coward. C'mon, your better than that.
    26 Jan 2013, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • choclinda
    , contributor
    Comments (43) | Send Message
     
    charts, schmarts.... to compare any other company to Apple is like comparing cabbage to caviar (Apple is caviar).
    26 Jan 2013, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • criticalbear
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    Funny, AAPL never traded like a growth stock. It's already priced cheaper than MSFT and CSCO. It's actually cheaper than MSFT and CSCO were after their drop.
    26 Jan 2013, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • LumiaMan
    , contributor
    Comments (324) | Send Message
     
    NOKIA is slowing eating away sales of Iphone, i have several friends who could buy any phone, and they chose the 920 over the I5, apple margins will go down. the New must have phone is the 920, just like a few years ago the ipone was the must have phone.
    26 Jan 2013, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • nguyenvanphuoc
    , contributor
    Comments (366) | Send Message
     
    Wow, SEVERAL friends? If that's not a detailed sampling of the population, I don't know what is. Thanks for the update, I'll ignore all the actual performance data in lieu of what your friends do.

     

    While I have you, can you ask your friends if they prefer Coke vs. Pepsi? I may have to rebalance my retirement portfolio based on the response.
    26 Jan 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • choclinda
    , contributor
    Comments (43) | Send Message
     
    ooooh. Several of your friends are buying Nokia. I guess several friends can change the the direction of the industry. Oh! How I love to read this stuff. It's laughable.
    26 Jan 2013, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • sheldond
    , contributor
    Comments (1024) | Send Message
     
    Not in the US especially the east coast. They cannot give the lumia away everyone wants an iPhone or Samsung. That said I like Nok from a worldwide perspective and believe they will turn it around in about three years. I am accumulating Nok from 1.70 and feel good about the longterm possibilities outside of phones smart and dumb.

     

    As for appl I bought in at 485 and again in the 440's I think the end will come after a few more waves to ridiculous heights. I am willing to keep buying at certain price points and collect some dividends.

     

    China is potential. Locked in market share in the US provides a cushion to this volatility especially in recurring revenues like iTunes and soon itv a la carte purchases. My experience tells me to prepare for more pain but I am in accumulation mode so I will swallow hard, bite the bullet, stare the herd in the eye and buy buy buy. I hopefully aquire additional shares cheaper and ride a nice bounce back over 700.

     

    APPL just needs to put a sweet word processor on these iPads and then it is game, set match. Sadly, they refuse to do this probably to ensure iMac sales. Am I the only one who feels this way?

     

    Long Nok APPL
    26 Jan 2013, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • rperson
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Total bs. It a cheap piece of Korean crap and a rip off of Apple. Samsung has had an original thought since they decided to start opting everything Apple did. And by the way fan boy, they jut announced to analysts to expect margin compression. How do like these Apples? And while that starts and Samsung starts its slow ascent to hell, Apple comes out with a lower cost iPhone, finger print recognition technology (which Samesung will try to rip off) and announces a deal with China mobile. Oh yeah, and a slew of new tech innovations and acquisitions of content providers to serve their new media network.
    26 Jan 2013, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • SoldHigh
    , contributor
    Comments (1000) | Send Message
     
    All the worthless analysts with their herd-mentality will be d/g AAPL in 400s after all their table pounding and upgrades in the 600s.

     

    Worthless.
    26 Jan 2013, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • marcos
    , contributor
    Comments (93) | Send Message
     
    There is a market for cheap crap and Samsung and Nokia have it. To deny AAPL's standing just because of heavy trading in a 3 day oversold mood based on ??what?? a $2B lower sales estimate in one period ?

     

    It clearly underscores that both swing trade investors and analysts are genuinely idiots who can be duped on a dime. What will they do in three months from now? Change their opinion? Believe me they'd change it in 30 seconds if AAPL management spilt the stock, or increased a dividend, increased a buyback or announced added sales in China or a new product.

     

    I only hope that all of the recent sellers during this capitulation got wiped in the process.
    26 Jan 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Sam Liu
    , contributor
    Comments (3864) | Send Message
     
    "cheap crap and Samsung and Nokia have it."

     

    Before you make an arrogant comment like that do some research on what sort of companies they are. You small minded people just display your insecurities. And I'm sure Tim Cook and Jony Ives don't lay awake over those companies.

     

    Wikipedia.org
    Nokia Corporation is a Finnish multinational communications and information technology corporation. And what I gleamed from http://seekingalpha.co..., Nokia earns most of its money from its JV in networking services with Siemens.

     

    Samsung Group a South Korean multinational conglomerate company is the largest South Korean chaebol.

     

    Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (Korean: 삼성전자) is a South Korean multinational electronics company. Samsung Group and the world's largest information technology company by revenues since 2009.[3] Samsung Electronics has assembly plants and sales networks in 61 countries and employs around 221,000 people.[4]

     

    Samsung Electronics is the world's largest mobile phone maker by 2011 unit sales and world's second-largest semiconductor chip maker by 2011 revenues (after Intel Corporation). It has been the world's largest television manufacturer since 2006 and the world's largest maker of LCD panels for eight consecutive years.[5] It has the largest marketshare worldwide in memory chips.[6] The company was the world's largest vendor of smartphones in 2011.[7]

     

    27 Jan 2013, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • rasanders22
    , contributor
    Comments (529) | Send Message
     
    One could also say their is a market for over priced crap that allows certain people to feel they are somehow superior to others because they own something made by child labor in China.
    28 Jan 2013, 06:57 AM Reply Like
  • abe893
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    At least he holds his ground
    26 Jan 2013, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • choclinda
    , contributor
    Comments (43) | Send Message
     
    Don't those analysts just love to lift up only to pull down. It's human nature. Everyone loves a winner. They all know nothing. They're all clueless sheep. As for hedge funds, those are the most dangerous of all thugs.
    One can only imagine what is in the Apple pipeline for the future. Steve Jobs certainly didn't lie on his bed looking at the ceiling during his illness.
    So, I say to all the naysayers. you will eat your words.
    26 Jan 2013, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5151) | Send Message
     
    Would someone at SA please stop this nonsense?

     

    If you are not willing to give equal space to all analysts who speak, then please stop cherry-picking quotes from obscure analysts.

     

    If there are no Market Currents on a Saturday, I am OK with not reading something that was said on Thursday.
    26 Jan 2013, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • Stephen J Melnykevich
    , contributor
    Comments (1227) | Send Message
     
    I completely agree.
    26 Jan 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • narsil
    , contributor
    Comments (51) | Send Message
     
    I disagree completely. Restating a bearish analyst sentiment on AAPL wouldn't be as relevant to investors now as quoting a bull-turned-bear analyst.
    26 Jan 2013, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • Jack Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (886) | Send Message
     
    And, how exactly is a 45% price target gain in 12 months bearish?
    26 Jan 2013, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • LumiaMan
    , contributor
    Comments (324) | Send Message
     
    in the end Quality will win,, nokia 920
    26 Jan 2013, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • LumiaMan
    , contributor
    Comments (324) | Send Message
     
    keep your samdung trinket, i take I4 over it anyday and NOK920 over either
    26 Jan 2013, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • tjmxxx
    , contributor
    Comments (96) | Send Message
     
    His name alone would cause me to dismiss anything he said.
    26 Jan 2013, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • HYDRO
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    Crapple is Kaput..Cook and his crew are greedy. Cook knew they missed their numbers and should of did a buy back and the biggest dividend of all companies!..Buy put's and short it..This Market is flying but will land soon enough..
    26 Jan 2013, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • criticalbear
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    lol who is "their?"
    26 Jan 2013, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • AnaleezaHolder
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    I'll sms Tim Cook tonight, telling him to disregard his stupid counsel & Board of Directors, to do an immediate 180 degree switch to your suggestions, so he (you) can steer AAPL back to where you want it to be, or think it should be. Happy now?
    26 Jan 2013, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • nguyenvanphuoc
    , contributor
    Comments (366) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure Mr. Cook will be very eager to hear what you think he "should of did".
    27 Jan 2013, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • pman6
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    In other news, FBN has a price target for NFLX at $500.

     

    fools.
    26 Jan 2013, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • Maciej Kedzierski
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    This surely shows their in depth research and credibility
    26 Jan 2013, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • ML610
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    Equity analysts...haha..some gig
    26 Jan 2013, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • sargon4veritas
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    APPLE, with billions set aside to buy_back_stock, was looking pretty smart late Friday when the very_large_volume made it look like they were competing with some sharp funds to buy in the $482--494 range.
    Wish I were that smart, but that'll benefits all of us. ~ Woof
    26 Jan 2013, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • schminkie
    , contributor
    Comments (139) | Send Message
     
    hey i'll take 650 any day.
    27 Jan 2013, 02:37 AM Reply Like
  • Atmit
    , contributor
    Comments (103) | Send Message
     
    What American posters here don't realize is that the iphone is largely a US phenomenon. In the rest of the world, Android is WAY ahead of the rest.
    http://bit.ly/WfZhsX

     

    Even among the "rest", Smartphone consumers don't have a clear preference for the iphone over Nokia/WP/Blackberry etc.
    The potential global smartphone market is much bigger than the US market, which is much closer to saturation than the rest of the world. Apple's operator subsidized model just doesn't work in most of the rest of the world, and with their high unsubsidized prices, there is no way they can be competitive in the rest of the world. Current and potential smartphone owners globally are far from locked in to the Apple ecosystem and are much more open to others. Hence, unless Apple changes their business model, they are pretty close to the peak of their growth curve.
    27 Jan 2013, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • billhall68
    , contributor
    Comments (52) | Send Message
     
    This shows how bad and corrupt these analysts really are. It's really sad what greed can make people do.
    27 Jan 2013, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • richbar
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    People, if you have been following my comments over the past 8 months, you would have saved yourself a lot of grief.

     

    I first started by showing that projections of a $1000 stock price were very unlikely to be achieved.

     

    To do this, I first determined the worldwide market size for all of Apple's products (smartphones, tablets, PCs, and media players) and their current share for each product. The result was that they currently had 21% of a $750 billion market ($156 billion in revenues).

     

    I then showed that if they were to grow at 20% annually over the next 5 years as most analysts projected, their revenues would be around $400 billion. If the w/w market were $1 trillion at that time due to rapid growth in smartphones and tablets, this would double their market share. Extremely unlikely.

     

    But if they could achieve a 25% share at that time ($250 billion in revenues), then average annual growth would be a more achievable 10%. Furthermore, if they could maintain their net income at the current 25% of revenues (at that time), they could earn $60+ billion and have a crack at $800-1000.

     

    So the $1000 target was only achievable in the best of cases.

     

    As it became clearer that competition was mounting and that market saturation and affordability were important factors, I felt that margins would have to erode and that revenue growth would be slower. Several months ago, I commented that revenue growth was slowing rapidly and that earnings were peaking and would fall by next year.

     

    During all of this, SA articles repeatedly claimed how cheap Apple was considering trailing P/Es, PEGs, and projected future growth. They believed the analysts who have been late to realize what is happening for whatever reasons. I commented on most of these articles, showing how 20% annual growth ad infinitum was unachievable, evidently to deaf ears.

     

    The unfolding of events has happened faster than I thought. So what now?

     

    Revenues will be up maybe 10-15% this year, but earnings will be flat to down. The decline in earnings will continue next year and will bounce around after that.

     

    I expect them to earn $30-$45 billion annually over the next 5 years. So what is the stock worth?

     

    The DCF value of a $30 billion annual earnings stream at a 10% discount rate is $306 billion. Adding $137 billion current cash to this gives $443 billion valuation. Repeating this calc for continual earnings streams of $35, $40, and $45 billion annually gives fair valuations of $494 billion, $545 billion, and $595 billion.

     

    So if they can continue to earn in the $30-45 billion range, the stock should be fairly valued at $480-$650. My feeling is that they should be able to maintain earnings at least in the lower half of this range, and that fair value is $500-550. At the current $440 price, there is limited downside risk but also limited upside.

     

    27 Jan 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • james99
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Ladies and gentlemen ... we have a bottom! BUY BUY BUY!
    27 Jan 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • iloewy
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    I once owned AAPL at $13 and made a very nice profit on it.It was too high at 700 but now I am buying it again as in my opinion it is at or close to bottom at $ 440
    27 Jan 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • redarrow5150
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    Shebly Seyrafi has just announced that Titantic has sunk! He says details to come in when morse code is finished.
    27 Jan 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Dgreengold
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Hold now. Buy on further dips. It's a keeper for the long haul. We might have to wait but there is still big things to come. Products- Dividends- Buybacks- splits.
    27 Jan 2013, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • lmayer39
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    According to various media pundits and sell side analysts, Apple has suddenly become a company that doesn't innovate any more . Therefore price targets are lowered and doom and gloom is the journalistic theme of the month. However, a cursory look back shows the the pace of innovation during the "innovative" years. First, the iPod-2001 with yearly upgrades until 2010. The iphone was launched 7 years later in July of 2008. iPad launched January 2010. Ipad mini Dec. 2012
    Has Apple stopped innovating? Hardly. There have been numerous substantially improved phone upgrades and launches. The ipad mini defines a new format for tablets going forward. New, cheaper iphones will soon be launched to establish the brand (and the eco-system) in developing markets. Looks like Apple has actually been innovating at a faster clip these days than prior to 2010. Pundits did not proclaim the death of Apple while they improved and upgraded the ipods and earlier iphones. Apple TV is coming and according to the late Steve Jobs it will revolutionize the TV experience just as Itunes did to the music business. So we may have a 1 to 1 1/2 year interval from the ipad min launch and the next game changing product. This does not diminish the pace of their innovation on a historical basis. On the marketing side, Apple now dominates the college textbook maket via the ipad. Their operating system is far more secure than Android, thus, they are rapidly penetrating the business community as the preferred mobile device and eco-system. Stats show that people who buy one Apple product generally buy a second and a third. They are doing precisely what they need to do to grow sales beyond the affluent American consumer.
    I am long Apple but for now, I won't fight the media feeding frenzy.
    27 Jan 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    How does the iPad Mini define "a new format for tablets going forward"?

     

    I think you missed the original iMac, then the multi-colour iMacs, and of course the Apple Cube. Also, you missed touting the effectiveness of the iTunes Store, which was a big move for Apple that led to many other products.

     

    Do you have a source for statistics showing multiple Apple product purchases by consumers? I see this often repeated, based upon annecdotal evidence, yet I have yet to see a reliable survey (or statistics) breaking down the effectiveness of this claim. There is data on repeat sales of iPhones, yet that data on other Apple products is lacking. Thanks in advance.
    27 Jan 2013, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • trose8
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    My target is $400. I want to buy.
    27 Jan 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Cvkcvk
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I think this is a "buy signal"!
    27 Jan 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • padk
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    Apple from the beginning is a sluggish company not able to compete and withstand. The only miracle is Jobs. Without him, last time they turned to ashes. When he was back, like phoenix they rose to the top. And now without him they are going to be burnt. This time due to pile of cash, it will take real long to burn to ashes but in the meantime the stock will be a trash. I will give you my reasons here, why I believe apple is a looser.

     

    (1) Inspite of being a genius of a company to invent smartphone, they let the competitors take over one by one. Today google is number one is software and samsung is number one is smartphones. Tomorrow there will be many pushing apple further down.
    (2) They haven't fixed the adobe flash dispute. It is ok in the beginning but even now if apple phone cannot display adobe flash, it is a big drawback. I am amazed that they don't exhibit any business sense.
    (3) In spite of demonstrated huge market for a mini ipad, it took real long time for them to bring one to market. This is not acceptable from a leader.
    (4) In spite of huge demand in the developing world for a lower priced smartphone, they refuse to admit or acknowledge the fact. Thus they dont have a smartphone at a different price point that caters to the unsubsidized developing world market.
    (5) In spite of growing popularity of large screen in various segments esp those who love to watch video on the smartphone, they refuse (listen to their earnings transcripts) to budge. Again, they just have one smartphone model. Wont it create a another growth channel if they deliver iphone - iphone mini, iphone max, iphone premium. It is simple business sense.
    (6) On TV front, if apple comes with a simple tv device with builtin wifi, touchscreen remote, ipad interface there will be a huge market. Just like iphone evolved from iphone to iphone5, once in market it can be evolved. But the thing is they have a product in the market and ahead of the game. Talking for years 'intense interest', 'pull strings' is no good while the competition already have launched smart tv's in the market.
    (7) Constant problem with supplychain. 'unable to meet the demand' is no excuse in business. Can we learn something from samsung which mass produced 50 different models which has almost same or more features than iphone
    (8) In the past 2 years they didnt bring a single new innovation to the market inspite of $100 billion available for R&D at their discretion. This is totally in contrast to how google keeps its brains working on different interesting project. If they dont have any ideas, how about a simple touchscreen dishwasher that can sing a song while washing dishes. Fear of failure never held Jobs from bringing many ideas to market.
    (9) In spite of so many years of iphone existence it is simply not available on many carriers both in US and worldwide. The prominent that comes to mind is china mobile. Does it take so many years and still working on a deal to just able to comeup with an agreement to make iphone available on worlds largest carrier ?
    (10) Letting $100 billion sit there and loose value to inflation is the most irresponsible thing to do. It is neither helping to grow the business or it is helping the shareholders.

     

    Without Jobs, apple simply doesn't have the vision or strategy or innovation to clear through the competition to stay on the top either in sales, margins. Obsession with quality is not an excuse to loose the market and enter a dark future. 5 years from now (if they don't change) apple will still be there but is taken over by everyone.
    27 Jan 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Glenn Abrett
    , contributor
    Comments (1362) | Send Message
     
    Jobs, or more precisely his legacy, is exactly the problem. Jobs was a genius but he was also pigheaded stubborn and the absolute alltime NIH (not invented here) champion. His NIH idiocy cost apple the PC market in the late 80's. If Cook clings to the jobsian view of a few simple super-quality products with high margins apple will be marginalized. They must change course. The must attack every single niche. They must lower prices and margins. And most of all, they must use a significant portion of their cash hoard to blanket the world's media with advertisements. If they do all of this they will dominate the globe. But they probably won't. Due to the hold the great and wonderful founder still has on the company's thinking.
    27 Jan 2013, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • lazy1
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    AAPL needs to break silence, calm the rumor mill, and give the competition a moving target on upcoming major AAPL market devices. If you want to retain the throne you must maintain the image!
    27 Jan 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • techy46
    , contributor
    Comments (5529) | Send Message
     
    Wow, you guys are hilarious. Apple's now $441 PS with $148 PS in cash so they really a $295 PS stock. Let's divide that but 9 to compare with Microsoft. So AAPL's at $32.78 with $5.44 EPS for a 6 PE. Yikes, Apple's has $141b in cash and can do anything they want to re-engineer and fix their future. Nokia's done just that by spending about $5b over 2 years. Apple could buy Nokia for $25 at $6.5 PS and start selling Windows Phone with iDevices and get camera, maps and patents. Samsung's very agnostic and is winning. Apple needs to become agnostic and broaden their products to include everyone. Microsoft's going to do that with Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8. I can't believe I'm defending Apple!
    27 Jan 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Glenn Abrett
    , contributor
    Comments (1362) | Send Message
     
    Here are some points.

     

    1] Samsung's phones, if not quite as good as iPhones, are close enough that it doesn't matter.
    2] The single biggest negative for apple in the past few months was that great samsung commercial where the folks waiting on line for new iPhones were shown to be psuedo-hip posers.
    3] The second biggest negative was the map debacle. The apple maps program was a huge step up compared to the no turn-by-turn, glacially slow google maps it replaced (new google maps is something else). But apple lost the PR war so badly that even my wife (who has an iPhone) refused to upgrade to IOS6 because of it.
    4] Apple has 137 billion in the bank. If apple was coke and pepsi was pulling even or ahead, what do you think they would do? Advertise -- swamp the world with iPhone, iPad, iPod and iMac advertisements -- 137 billion buys an awful lot of air time.
    5] The war is for market share. Nothing else matters. Apple doesn't need to make any more money. They have plenty. They need to win the market share war or they will be marginalized exactly as they were in the nineties. If they win the market share war the company is worth upwards of three trillion dollars. Figure it out yourself.
    27 Jan 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Glenn Abrett
    , contributor
    Comments (1362) | Send Message
     
    Because of the intense networking effects in this market I do believe the market share war is likely to be a winner take all. Like it was in PC's. Once the scale tilts strongly in one direction, there is no tilting it back.
    27 Jan 2013, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Pts117
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    How do you cut the price target by 32% on a company with a 415B market cap and still reco a buy? Even if the reco price is far above the market price, doesn't a 32% target adjustment in 3 months imply that your judgment is questionable and your reco should be: "my price target is 680, but my reco is for you to ignore my price target because i just slashed 320B from my target market cap."
    28 Jan 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Sam Liu
    , contributor
    Comments (3864) | Send Message
     
    I just saw a 2001 HK romantic comedy starring Shu Qi and Tony Leung. In the ending credits, there were credits to using Legend Computers, then I thought has Apple or what other companies do this sort of stuff other than IBM (IBM hadn't yet sold its PC business to Lenovo yet [2005]).
    28 Jan 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • jsmunroe59
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    I don't like CNBC's reporting on AAPL. They are mostly owned by Comcast I believe. I also believe Comcast is a large Content Provider, one that would be in competition with AAPL should AAPL gain sufficient media Content. Like I said, I don't like CNBC's reporting of AAPL. Read on.

     

    FROM CNBC NEWS regarding the COMCAST buying the rest of GE's Stake in NBCUniversal:

     

    "Porter Bibb, managing partner at Mediatech Capital Partners, said on CNBC the deal puts Comcast in the driver's seat. "They own the content and the distribution pipes and they're very technologically adept," he said. "I don't know of any other media company that can control its own destiny as well as Comcast."

     

    This was posted Feb 12th, 2013. Since then, without any MATERIAL AAPL news, the stock has tumbled from $470 to now $405 as of this moment. It seems the only news has been negative "speculation" and/or "conjecture" from various financial analysts and from CNBC reporters which continues send chills in the trading and investment world about AAPL.

     

    I have been actively trading and investing for over 25 years and have never seen such an apparent media assault against any one company for such an extended period of time, mostly over "conjecture" and "opinion", not fact.

     

    Does anyone else see what I am seeing or am I just another delusional AAPL shareholder who doesn't like to see such a strong and proven company be so subjectively beaten without any material facts to support the beatings or any retribution accountability for the misrepresentation of a great company?
    24 Apr 2013, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • redarrow5150
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    First of all Comcast owned 49% prior to taking full 100% of Universal. Secondly were you outraged with them when over the course of 5 years AAPL climbed to over $700? Hell that's all Fast Money has been talking about over the last five years is APPL or did you miss the PR machine or not watch that show at all?
    24 Apr 2013, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • Sam Liu
    , contributor
    Comments (3864) | Send Message
     
    "Over the course of 5 years AAPL climbed to over $700?"

     

    Like an exponential rise. AAPL was last at $400 a year ago.
    24 Apr 2013, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • redarrow5150
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    Yes but I wanted to point out that it just wasn't recent when they started talking about AAPL. To say CNBC is biased and negative toward APPL and is one of the reasons why it's on the decline is pure idiocy. If you're giving that much credit for the stock going down then why aren't you giving them credit for when the stock went up.
    24 Apr 2013, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • jsmunroe59
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    Because they are global media and they can strike fear into investors and traders who trust what they say. They didn't take the company to $700, AAPL did. They have made products where the demand outstrips the supply across many categories. They have managed their suppliers to enable strong gross margins. They have marketed with Jobs, iTunes, and other venues that have opened channels of distribution faster than most other manufacturing companies. It is surprising you cannot understand that Content Media is their next Big Hurdle with an iTV launch that would be meritorious and congruent with their successes and entertainment strategy. Given that Comcast is really NOW, not the last 5 years, a competitor and is threatened by AAPL, it is no wonder that Cramer and most of the Journalist/Reporters NOW slam the best company in the world. It's really not that big of leap ton understand the conflicts herein. With a Market Cap of $107B, AAPL should just buy them with cash. They would own the Content Media and be parent to CNBC. The birds would surely sing different tunes then. Sorry we don't seem to see eye-to-eye on this.
    25 Apr 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • redarrow5150
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    Ohh ok so going up was all appl but going down is all CNBC's fault? Good logic. By the way CNBC viewership is so small that a 6PM newscast in New York delivers more viewers than CNBC here in the US. As for content deliver aapl can't compare to DIS or Viacom so again please do away with your conspiracy theories. I used to be in the media business for over 20 years and you are talking complete nonsense about a conflict of interest and it's laughable because appl has no content to what you're describing. Really? lol.
    25 Apr 2013, 03:28 PM Reply Like
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