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Some Apple (AAPL +1.7%) commentary: 1) Respected NYU valuation theorist Aswath Damodaran thinks...

Some Apple (AAPL +1.7%) commentary: 1) Respected NYU valuation theorist Aswath Damodaran thinks there's a 90% chance Apple is undervalued, and dares investors to buy. "It is easy being a contrarian value investor, in the abstract, but much more difficult to be one in practice." 2) Raymond James notes the gap that has opened up between the iPhone's performance in the U.S. and elsewhere. While AT&T and Verizon's Q4 iPhone sales rose 25% Y/Y (sales of all other smartphones fell 2%), international growth is expected to fall to 15% in Q1 (below the market's growth).
Comments (19)
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (4050) | Send Message
     
    So is he buying Apple en mass then? or is he pumping so he can start dumping?
    29 Jan 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • tigersam
    , contributor
    Comments (1711) | Send Message
     
    None these guys are good at guessing what is Apple worth. Big BS.
    29 Jan 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • FlashJ
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    at the moment it is worth what people (the market) will pay for it! BUT, what will it be worth in 3, 6, 12 months? and 24 months from now?
    29 Jan 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • tigersam
    , contributor
    Comments (1711) | Send Message
     
    In my opinion Apple is cheap $1200 per share.

     

    Here are some stats.

     

    Amazon so far made only $5B of earnings. Apple made $13B just last quarter.

     

    If Apple grows 3 percent for next 3 years then Apple's PE will be 3.

     

    Apple will have over $250B in bank after 3 years.

     

    I am not worried about Apple went down from $700 to $450. What I am angry about this tech guys who said it was death cross and Apple went down because of that.

     

    I am holding my shares 1000 shares and I have no doubt that it will go up $700 with a blink of eye.
    29 Jan 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • baozebub
    , contributor
    Comments (375) | Send Message
     
    tigersam, I feel your pain. Good luck to you.
    29 Jan 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • techy46
    , contributor
    Comments (5963) | Send Message
     
    What people are willing to pay for it 3, 6, 12 months? and 24 months from now?
    30 Jan 2013, 04:51 AM Reply Like
  • mogando
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    "Raymond James notes the gap that has opened up between the iPhone's performance in the U.S. and elsewhere."

     

    DUH ! The US has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world, while "International" is filled with 3rd world countries and those soon in bankruptcy like Spain or Greece. Of course they wouldn't be able to afford quality.

     

    In other news, Hondas are outselling Porsche's 200-to-1 in Sierra Leone, and Porsche has once against "lost the war".
    29 Jan 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • baozebub
    , contributor
    Comments (375) | Send Message
     
    Apple needs to come out with a super low end phone to go up against Samsung. Right now, Apple only has the high end and demand for midlevel (i.e. iPhone 4) is high.

     

    When Apple gets into the shit phone category, it will kill Samsung in the poverty stricken areas.
    29 Jan 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • danzada
    , contributor
    Comments (136) | Send Message
     
    I think that's looking at it the wrong way. The US has been exposed to smartphones the longest, and the fact that everybody is switching to iPhones just shows that they work much better than Android's patched together garbage.

     

    I used to be a huge android fan boy, but after 2 glitchy phones (which were the most expensive Verizon offerings other than iPhone) I've decided that this is my last Android phone. And I'm not the only one.
    29 Jan 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • criticalbear
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    It's actually ironic. Apple thought they'd iron out the low-end market by keepign the iphone 4 but the iphone 4 is actually expensive to manufacture now. they just don't have the capacity to make a cheap product and it's hilarious.
    29 Jan 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • aparo201@google.com
    , contributor
    Comments (153) | Send Message
     
    Exactly.

     

    that 85% of AT&T purhasres bought iPhones, and 65% Verizon, is a stunning figure that is being ignored by the market. in terms of global sales, it is not huge, but it reinforces the point you make which is that Apple's brand strength is growing. you have to think a decent percentage of those 85% are former Android users. And there is a good chance that those buying an iPhone as their first Apple product will buy another one, this is what i did and it is a common story.

     

    I know people happy with their GS3, but none of them are so thrilled with it that they are itching to run out and buy other Samsung products because of it, which is common with Apple. One common theme is that the GS3 is great out of the box but issues creep up and snowball after some months. This to me sounds like a repeat of PC-Mac dynamic, where the PCs put up good, sometimes superior specs, but are not as reliable and lose performance much faster than Macs.
    29 Jan 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (4050) | Send Message
     
    I think part of the problem is the only place Apple does EXTREMELY well is the US, and even though the US has the largest single market the rest of the world combined out weighs the US. So who would you rather dominate the US alone? Or the entire world excluding the US?

     

    Expectations that Apple would dominate the world as it did in the US probably led to it hitting 700$ a share now that the reality that it might not is setting in shares are being pressured.

     

    Just my thoughts so far incomplete to be sure...
    29 Jan 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Bradmol
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    Its gaining share in a lot of the world. China doubled last years sale. So what will it do in 2013? I live in Bangkok. iPhone 5 is hot and desired. Officially authorised Apple stores called istudio are packed. That said, Samsung is also hugely popular. I think if most could afford, they would buy iphone. Some prefer the new Samsung larger design and are switching. Some are disappointed and miss the apple ecosystem and switch back. I know people in both camps. I've tried both and prefer apple. If apple comes out with a few new design sizes which I think are currently in the making, we are going to see new interest at Samsungs expense. Maybe also at apples profit margin expense. But one most get into the apple ecosystem, most don't want to leave. Then it becomes a software and content profit. App and iTunes and movie downloads.
    29 Jan 2013, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • hharrisiii
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Why would they want to do that? They are churning out more cash than any company on the planet by far. Why would they want to get into low profit margin phones when they are King of the high quality and high margin phones?
    30 Jan 2013, 03:01 AM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (4018) | Send Message
     
    Well, unless you believe AAPL can obtain significantly higher percentages of the US market then yeah you may not care about the int'l market.

     

    If the trend in the int'l market holds, and Apple loses ground, then there is little potential growth on the horizon.
    30 Jan 2013, 07:08 AM Reply Like
  • flo'mop
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Too much "fast money" mentality; too much of a focus on trading and not enough on investing. The figures used in this latest blurb use 2 wireless providers and clearly state they experienced 25% iphone growth domestically Q4; and internationally is going to grow by 15% Q1. Is there a red flag here I'm missing? Unless Apple is outright fabricating their numbers, they're generating profit continuously at a pace unprecedented and they have more cash on hand than it usually takes to comfort even the most conservative investor. These recent fluctuations speak more to general market volatility and the influence of Wall Street analysts than the value of a company or its capacity for growth. Apple has always been a team of great innovators and designers, and though the cult of personality around Steve Jobs most prevalent among Apple critics is somewhat deserved, Apple has always relied on the workings of many talented people to conceive and make the devices that are top of the line. I've yet to see any metric on Apple that makes me as an investor as worried or frantic as the commentators daily shouting "buy" and "sell."
    29 Jan 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • nguyenvanphuoc
    , contributor
    Comments (377) | Send Message
     
    It never ceases to amaze me how many people know what Apple "needs" to do.

     

    Apple launched the iPhone 5 in China and sold 2 million in 1 weekend. A relevant footnote here would be to mention that the i5 was only being sold through China's #2 and #3 wireless providers.

     

    Apple can do all sorts of things to expand their market. The idea that they are locked into only a super premium offering is ludicrous. The idea that their phones are only selling well in the US has been proven wrong.

     

    Of course it's possible that I'm wrong and that Apple is in fact doomed. However, given the irrationality surrounding some comparables (AMZN, NFLX) I'll take my 10x TTM (not to mention the 2.4% dividend) on AAPL and feel pretty comfortable.

     

    AAPL only has to perform adequately to show they're undervalued. Others have to grow earnings at an unbelievable rate to prove they're not over valued.
    29 Jan 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • hharrisiii
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Absolutely Nguyen !! Check out Google at 31 times earnings when Apple is at about 10X. Of course Google, AMZN, and NFLX all went up after their earnings. (Would rather AAPL's)
    Also you can fake earnings (Enron & Worldcom) but it's hard to fake cash. I think I'll hold my Apple and add to the position.
    30 Jan 2013, 03:00 AM Reply Like
  • Skippy09
    , contributor
    Comments (1538) | Send Message
     
    When AAPL inks a deal with CHL they will have access to 1 Billion Chinese consumers. Think about that.
    6 Feb 2013, 08:09 PM Reply Like
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