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Mentioned during Facebook's (FB) Q4 CC: Total expenses are expected to grow 50% in 2013 (likely...

Mentioned during Facebook's (FB) Q4 CC: Total expenses are expected to grow 50% in 2013 (likely exceeding revenue growth). 2013 capex budget is set at $1.8B, up from 2012's $1.6B. North American ad prices rose 18%, no doubt aided by Sponsored Stories. The FBX exchange is now handling 1B ad impressions/day. Mark Zuckerberg claims likes/comments rose 50% following a news feed algorithm change, and hints video ads are on the way. Zuck on Google: "Our relationship ... isn't one where the companies really talk." Shares -4.1% AH. (more) (live blog)
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Comments (9)
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Short sellers tend to make negative talk about anything to bring down the price. Even if the above comes to pass, 50% increase in expenses isn't the same as 50% of revenue growth because FB's profit margins are very high, since they operate no industrial equipment (no repairs or maintenance reqd, i.e. no breakdowns), labor is top-heavy with multi-tasking geeks, with minimal admin staff, and revenue increase depends on traffic, so minimal or no costs incurred. Like I said, eventually, FB's price will settle around $35 in the near-term but possibly touch $40 within the rest of the year, unless some new negative factors arise, which are unlikely, since whatever can be said about FB has already been said and discounted, so nothing much to depress prices further. Only way to go is up.
    30 Jan 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • gwynfryn
    , contributor
    Comments (4330) | Send Message
     
    ben, you don't count data banks as "equipment"? FB has a HUGE investment in such plant. I don't argue with your valuations, but given the uncertainty of their business model, I have misgivings about their rate of growth; yes, I know this is what Wall Street won't, but then, they don't care about the fallout when this bubble eventually bursts! That's going to be HUGE too; it's just a matter of time...
    2 Feb 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Zeus2012
    , contributor
    Comments (706) | Send Message
     
    You must be really long FB as I've seen you in a number of these posts.

     

    FB = great company + over valued stock. Just another internet bubble 2.0 stock.

     

    Like the last time, this bubble will also burst when the fed changes its monetary policy which may happen sooner than the street expects.
    30 Jan 2013, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    Nope, I alternate between long or short as the market goes down or up. I used to be a heavy short-seller, shorting whenever the price goes up and reaping the profits when it comes back down. Then, I go long until I think it's time to short again, and so, the cycle contniues. Right now, I'm long on FB, until I think that the tide has turned. With the positive results, I'm picking up more volume whenever it dips low enough, because it will go the other way when the market sees that there isn't any run on the stock. It's too early to call it another internet bubble. FB is different because there're millions of people who actually like the product.
    31 Jan 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • gwynfryn
    , contributor
    Comments (4330) | Send Message
     
    Yes ben, there are millions who do, but they are not paying for it!
    2 Feb 2013, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • 1keila23
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I notice comments on Google Finance page are mostly negative about Facebook. Lets be honest Google, Facebook will grow will reach 200 per share, it just makes sense who doesn't use Facebook?
    31 Jan 2013, 03:41 AM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    1keila23.....$200 per share is too much to dream about, unless FB comes up with a slew (not just one) of innovations that will capture the volume that Google used to get when it soared (made a killing with it). I don't see it going beyond $60 for the next two years at least, even with positive results every quarter because the nay-sayers will continue to dampen sentiment. For the rest of the year, we'll be lucky if it crosses $40 at the current pace. I'm hoping and betting on Mark Zuckerberg to come up with more bright ideas. Problem is that, his team depends on him for vision and direction, just like Steve Jobs's team (and with Steve gone, the team will go adrift in time, so I shorted Apple the day when Steve announced his terminal illness and I'm still counting my profits, as it goes lower). Eventually, when there's enough market support, no news is good news, and there will be enough resistance to prop up the stock even if FB doesn't do well, but that won't happen for at least two years.
    31 Jan 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • cledrag
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    At this moment , all equities price have shot up due to huge heavy trading. The attractive low interest offered by fed offers traders to trade equities.
    31 Jan 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1960) | Send Message
     
    cledrag....absolutely spot-on observation. Lots of new capital have come back to the market, including free money from the feds. Also, AAPL's recent collapse have freed up tremendous amount of capital to stimulate the rest of the market.
    1 Feb 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
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