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Fed releases updated economic projections: Sees 2011 GDP of 2.7-2.9% vs. 3.1-3.3% range in...

Fed releases updated economic projections: Sees 2011 GDP of 2.7-2.9% vs. 3.1-3.3% range in April, unemployment rate of 8.6-8.9% vs. 8.4-8.7% in April, core PCE inflation of 1.5-1.8% vs. 1.3-1.6% in April.
Comments (10)
  • montanamark
    , contributor
    Comments (1444) | Send Message
     
    gee 3.3 down to 2.7 - yep thats a recovery
    22 Jun 2011, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • montanamark
    , contributor
    Comments (1444) | Send Message
     
    ben repeats that things are sure to pick up second half and into 2012 but he cant give any basis for that projection
    22 Jun 2011, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • TKO
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    japanese rebuild? one-time supply constraints from earthquake gradually recovering? oil prices have fallen back down from 2011 peak? inflation is transient?

     

    the reasons have been repeated many many times.
    the question is, do you choose to believe it or not.
    whether you do or not, the answer will become quite clear in the next quarter.
    22 Jun 2011, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • montanamark
    , contributor
    Comments (1444) | Send Message
     
    state the basis for inflation being temporary? have you purchased gas, food, insurance, tuition, building materials, etc in the past few years? "belief" is irrelevant when you are paying. vendors dont care want one "believes"
    are you excited that gas prices fell to $4/gal

     

    the only hope for moderating inflation is the worldwide slow down into depression and bubbles popping like unused, new, empty chinese cities
    22 Jun 2011, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • TKO
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    i didn't state anything. this is straight from helicopter ben.

     

    if you're asking for my opinion, that's a different story.
    22 Jun 2011, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • nightfly
    , contributor
    Comments (1017) | Send Message
     
    Ask yourself one question: when has the Fed ever got anything right? They are always reactionary, not proactive and thus always late to the game where their policy changes have minimal impact.
    22 Jun 2011, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • J 457
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
     
    In the next six days we will truly see what impact POMO has had on daily market movement. Personally, I suspect the last 9 months of market gains (or market stability?) have been the direct result of the 600 billion purchases. Three points: 1) The market must now be supported by the already all-in MM's, or by retail investors deciding to invest new sideline money. Is the retail investor that confident that the recovery has gained traction. I'm not. 2) Greece isn't over yet. If EURO falls, which it will, the USD will rally. Especially since the FED has made it clear QE2 is done and no QE3 for the near-term. Flight to safety. 3) US budget- that could work either way for stocks. No agreement and stocks get punished. Agreement without major cuts will see weaker USD into Aug.

     

    These short-term events (30-days) could be all that is needed to drop the markets 15-20% and give thought to new QE3 come Aug/Sept. Japan is one of many possible Black Swan events. Is the nuclear situation all better, or will the problem blow wide open tomorrow?
    22 Jun 2011, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Conventional Wisdumb
    , contributor
    Comments (1802) | Send Message
     
    When has the FED ever in its history forecast a recession?

     

    I would have more confidence in the FED's forecasts if they had a track record of even identifying one recession before it actually started.

     

    We gain nothing from their so-called "forecasts". All forecasts are based upon an assumption of the "situation remaining as it is" ("ceteris paribus") which means in essence the forecast is worthless the moment it is presented.
    22 Jun 2011, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • TKO
    , contributor
    Comments (156) | Send Message
     
    By virtue of what is a forecast, you are correct, it is almost meaningless. Perhaps what you want is more of a scenario based analysis, the so-called outlier events and worst/best case scenarios. I would agree that would be more meaningful.
    22 Jun 2011, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • jdhawk
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    What B meant to say is, "Hey, we threw everything we had against the wall - with only the stock market benefiting (low interest rates, QE I and QE II). I am tired of doing the Congress' job. They are sucking every dollar possible out of Americans' wallets and then printing a trillion and a half dollars more to run the government. That has got to stop if you want to see Main Street rebound. American's have nothing left to lift the economy out of recession. They are still hocked to their eyeballs and their most important asset is either in foreclosure and/or losing value - their homes."
    22 Jun 2011, 06:34 PM Reply Like
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