Global gold production has reached record highs in recent years, but NBF analysts predict a...

Global gold production has reached record highs in recent years, but NBF analysts predict a "production cliff" - too few large deposits discovered to sustain current production rates - ahead in which senior gold miners will begin to undergo a sharp production decline. In such an environment, M&A involving projects with low capital intensity, favorable logistics and strong returns should be a key driver.

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Comments (8)
  • boldaq
    , contributor
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    1 Feb 2013, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • tr4head
    , contributor
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    I think it means Gold will go up. I think.
    1 Feb 2013, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mr_Nick
    , contributor
    Comments (95) | Send Message
    M&A - Mergers & Acquisitions. Small Miners will get sucked up at likely high valuations based on future PM production deficits and higher anticipated market values.
    1 Feb 2013, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • ducat
    , contributor
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    Mr Nick_ I agree with your comment but need to point out that the situation (regarding M&A) will be much more complex. In particular, the large deposits mentioned are often tied to huge, low grade deposits that are mined open pit style. These operations are energy hogs in terms of diesel. Those explorers looking to exploit low grade open pit operations located in countries that are subject to energy shortage might be dead in water if energy prices sky rocket. Specifically, I am concerned with Mexico where the prolific past production (Cantrell) of sweet crude oil is rapidly disappearing. Unless new oil discoveries can come on line, the times of cheap diesel may be coming to an end in that country. They are not alone but Mexico does represent a large percentage of small explorers looking to capitalize on raising PM prices. It looks to me like some of the best prospects are working in the high risk countries like Bolivia and Argentina where there is a surplus of energy (net exporters) and generally have rich PM deposits that are best exploited with underground operations. I might mention that in-spite of all the hyperbola about the USA becoming energy independent in 20 years???, the fact is that the country is running a horrendous trade deficit of ~$30 billion/month on imports of crude. Price related import controls could well emerge if/when? destruction of the US $ comes down to food or mining. Of course, Nevada mining is at the top of the diesel per ounce miners in the world. What I am suggesting is that this could be a very difficult situation where "the rising tide" does not lift all boats. I sure would like to have that Chrystel Ball to show me the direction.
    2 Feb 2013, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mr_Nick
    , contributor
    Comments (95) | Send Message
    I agree wholeheartedly. EROI is the factor of the decade going forward coupled with dwindling PM grade deposits. Together their synergy is sure to cause enormous market disruptions.
    2 Feb 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • whaddyamean?
    , contributor
    Comments (498) | Send Message
    The substance of this article offers a coprophagous emanation if ever I encountered such.
    2 Feb 2013, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • ellistar
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
    The best cure for shortages are high prices..economics 101. They said the same thing about petroleum but forget it was $10/bbl 14 years ago. Now US oil production is at a high and natural gas is replacing oil as a burning fuel.
    5 Feb 2013, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • dnmlv
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
    Sounds like some of the big guys might be interested in buying some of the little guys.
    5 Feb 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
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