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While many believe the global economy is stable and recovering, "permabear"  economist...

While many believe the global economy is stable and recovering, "permabear"  economist David Rosenberg sees "a car being driven by a drunk, lurching from side to side on the road, narrowly avoiding the ditches each time." While the car is in the middle of the road right now, "is that because the driver has sobered up, or is it because the car is just passing through the middle on its way to the ditch on the other side?"
Comments (34)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9314) | Send Message
     
    Rosenberg....

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    http://read.bi/WlbIQu

     

    http://bit.ly/XQqWgO
    3 Feb 2013, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • caddy311
    , contributor
    Comments (153) | Send Message
     
    God, at some point I suppose Rosenberg will be right (the old "blind-squirrel theory"). But those that listened to him from 09-today, and stayed on the sidelines out of fear, missed out on a truly great opportunity.
    3 Feb 2013, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Petrarch
    , contributor
    Comments (630) | Send Message
     
    well put

     

    that one word..."Rosenberg...."... encapsulates it

     

    that said - he is not so much a permabear - he is actually positive on equities in a limited sense

     

    and he does make a good point about regulation - if you listen

     

    but the relentless pessimism is worn out and getting frayed

     

    like Hollywood starlets - time is never kind to sages like Rosie, indeed Nouriel Roubini - the "Alicia Silverstone" of economic pundits is looking very frayed these days.

     

    P
    3 Feb 2013, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9314) | Send Message
     
    Rosenberg...99% sure....

     

    http://bit.ly/UP0yHl
    3 Feb 2013, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • Neil459
    , contributor
    Comments (2644) | Send Message
     
    How can the economy be recovering here in the US, when we have an anti capitalist big government spender in the White House bent on making us a third world no-body through wasteful government and cronyism.
    3 Feb 2013, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • linenoise
    , contributor
    Comments (215) | Send Message
     
    Who has Obama spent more than?
    3 Feb 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Neil459
    , contributor
    Comments (2644) | Send Message
     
    "Who has Obama spent more than?"

     

    The sum of every other President to come before him.
    3 Feb 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • linenoise
    , contributor
    Comments (215) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/Q9GDgv

     

    • In the 2009 fiscal year — the last of George W. Bush’s presidency — federal spending rose by 17.9% from $2.98 trillion to $3.52 trillion. Check the official numbers at the Office of Management and Budget.

     

    • In fiscal 2010 — the first budget under Obama — spending fell 1.8% to $3.46 trillion.

     

    • In fiscal 2011, spending rose 4.3% to $3.60 trillion.

     

    • In fiscal 2012, spending is set to rise 0.7% to $3.63 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate of the budget that was agreed to last August.

     

    • Finally in fiscal 2013 — the final budget of Obama’s term — spending is scheduled to fall 1.3% to $3.58 trillion. Read the CBO’s latest budget outlook.

     

    Over Obama’s four budget years, federal spending is on track to rise from $3.52 trillion to $3.58 trillion, an annualized increase of just 0.4%.
    3 Feb 2013, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Neil459
    , contributor
    Comments (2644) | Send Message
     
    linenoise, again you need to learn washington speak. Once the word 'budget' is used, the numbers become meaningless. Check the Historical Federal Receipt and Outlay Summary, during the last three years of Bush's Presidency debt was increased $806.4 Billion (in constant 2005 dollars). Now keep in mind that the Democrats controlled the spending during the last two years.

     

    Then consider that Obama's first three years increased the debt $3,555 Trillion (in constant 2005 dollars). The first two years Democrats were in control. That is over $1 T per year. That means that every year Obama's debt increased more then the total debt Bush added in 3 years, with Democrats in control the last 2 years.

     

    Lastly, Bush was not in office except for 20 lame duck days in 2009. So using 2009 and attributing it to Bush is just plain dishonest. In addition, the Democrats controlled the house in 2007 and 2008.

     

    One more thing, the article you pointed to was published by the recipient of a ton of Obama money to cover up their own dishonesty and deceit.

     

    I certainly hope you don't use the same lack of correctness when you analyze your own investments.
    4 Feb 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9314) | Send Message
     
    Selling everytime a Democrat gets elected usually results in portfolio
    underperformance....
    3 Feb 2013, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • Neil459
    , contributor
    Comments (2644) | Send Message
     
    "Selling everytime a Democrat gets elected usually results in portfolio
    underperformance...."

     

    Sure, but neither fundamental nor technical analysis mean anything when the President decides to go after a healthy business or industry or prop up an unhealthy business or industry for political gain. So even though the VIX is low, the risk is high if one is not paying real close attention to politics as part of their investment strategy.
    3 Feb 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Tony Petroski
    , contributor
    Comments (6373) | Send Message
     
    Mr. copywriter. You've provoked a few reactionaries but...

     

    "While many believe the global economy is stable and recovering..."

     

    (?)

     

    Outside of Nobel laureate Krugman and Nobel laureate Obama, and Nobel laureate Carter and Nobel laureate Gore...

     

    who are these guys who think the economy is stable and recovering?

     

    And...recovering from what?
    3 Feb 2013, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    An economist's guess is liable to be as good as anybody else's.
    Will Rogers

     

    Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it.
    Will Rogers
    3 Feb 2013, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • robgra
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    Well, that's quite encouraging! Given Rosenberg's track record, we're almost guaranteed a raging bull market...
    3 Feb 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Sam Liu
    , contributor
    Comments (3864) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/XQtPOH

     

    Butler: So-called global economic experts often miss the point
    By Stephen J. Butler
    sbutler@pensiondynamic...
    3 Feb 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    The problem is, the economy cannot function without the continued govt/Fed intervention. Without the govt backing over 90% of all non-revolving loans and the Fed monetizing debt and forcing the interest rates to rediculously low levels, there would be no economy. Unfortunately these actions come a a cost. The cost will continue to build until we cannot afford it. Make money now while you can because when the music stops only the banksters and politicians will have chairs.
    3 Feb 2013, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • IW
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Economics On The Grounds Hasn't Changed Much Since '08. In Some Respects, Like In Unemployment, It's Gotten Worse. Real Unemployment Is Over 20%, A Crazy Figure. The Real Economy Is Basically In A Depression.

     

    http://bit.ly/XgVGrm
    3 Feb 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Tony Petroski
    , contributor
    Comments (6373) | Send Message
     
    Sorry copywriter. You haven't provoked enough reactionaries.

     

    Let me try.

     

    "David Rosenberg sees 'a car being driven by a drunk, lurching from side to side on the road, narrowly avoiding the ditches each time.' While the car is in the middle of the road right now, 'is that because the driver has sobered up, or is it because the car is just passing through the middle on its way to the ditch on the other side?'"

     

    Copywriter, Mr. Rosenberg, and reactionaries of the world:

     

    The car isn't being driven by a drunk. It's being driven by a community organizer. Now, how many of you would have your car driven by a community organizer? Quickly...

     

    I thought so. None.

     

    Mr. Rosenberg: Sober up. Get on the bullet train. This thing has to work...uh...until...it doesn't.
    3 Feb 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Tony Petroski
    , contributor
    Comments (6373) | Send Message
     
    Reactionaries of the world...unite?
    3 Feb 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • mike8599
    , contributor
    Comments (583) | Send Message
     
    I don't think Obama gives a hoot about the economy - it's probably like 5th (tops) on his list of things to care about, with his ideology in front of it. So basically the market (economy) is wobbly in search of leader who will grab the wheel, and balance fiscal and monetary policy to provide consistent growth.

     

    Recession talk is silly when the Fed is pumping dollars, although that assumes the federal government won't overload on the regs that stop growth.
    3 Feb 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Tony Petroski
    , contributor
    Comments (6373) | Send Message
     
    Mr. mike8599. You started this.

     

    "I don't think Obama gives a hoot about the economy - it's probably like 5th (tops) on his list of things to care about, with his ideology in front of it."

     

    I couldn't have said it better myself.

     

    Obama is a "Citizen of the World." That's why, in his first presidential campaign, he spoke in front of the Brandenburg
    Gate and, as I recall, he said this: "National Socialism is never enough! What we demand right now is International Socialism!"

     

    Did I get that wrong? Maybe.

     

    "So basically the market (economy) is wobbly in search of leader who will grab the wheel, and balance fiscal and monetary policy to provide consistent growth."

     

    No. The current community-organizer-in... leads from behind.

     

    Let him.

     

    Free people pursue happiness and they need nobody to "grab the wheel."

     

    Mr. mike8599. If we are not a free people anymore, then I would rather be ruled by Michelle than by Barack.
    3 Feb 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • mike8599
    , contributor
    Comments (583) | Send Message
     
    Ok Tony I'll agree with everything except to be ruled by Michelle .... ew
    3 Feb 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    Economies in general tend to go from ditch to ditch as the political process needs extremism to create enemies and thereby power bases.
    3 Feb 2013, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • mikeg999
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    If you care about the long term performance of your portfolio, do not spend more than a moment listening to any economist.
    3 Feb 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Tony Petroski
    , contributor
    Comments (6373) | Send Message
     
    Mr. mikeg999. Are you related to Mr. mike8599?

     

    Let us in on your story .

     

    Orphans united by...?
    3 Feb 2013, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (4517) | Send Message
     
    mikeg,
    Amen ! -- Filter out the "noise" and don't fight the trend.
    3 Feb 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • mike8599
    , contributor
    Comments (583) | Send Message
     
    he stole my name...damit.... but makes a good point

     

    It is a good name
    3 Feb 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • Akhil Khanna
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    Fed's insistence on continuing QE till the unemployment rate comes down is like the drunk person resolve to keep on drinking till his liver recovers to its peak health.

     

    http://bit.ly/X6RPPr
    http://bit.ly/PoXMSN
    3 Feb 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tony Petroski
    , contributor
    Comments (6373) | Send Message
     
    Well put.

     

    The question on all our minds now is: what do we do if unemployment never gets to 6.5%?
    3 Feb 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Neil459
    , contributor
    Comments (2644) | Send Message
     
    "The question on all our minds now is: what do we do if unemployment never gets to 6.5%?"

     

    Never happen unless the government stops buying the unemployed vote with free kitchens and extended benefits. That won't happen until everyone that works is sick of paying 50% federal taxes, plus 10% sales tax, plus 15% state tax on every penny they earn.
    3 Feb 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • tigersam
    , contributor
    Comments (1711) | Send Message
     
    Where are the cops when you need them?
    3 Feb 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Davephd
    , contributor
    Comments (688) | Send Message
     
    tigersam - Probably on a picket line demanding higher retirement fund contributions.
    3 Feb 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • tigersam
    , contributor
    Comments (1711) | Send Message
     
    Or may be in Dunkin Donut.
    3 Feb 2013, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • Zheeeem
    , contributor
    Comments (257) | Send Message
     
    I think it might be more like - "a car being driven by a drunk, lurching from side to side on the road, narrowly avoiding the ditches each time, and making gobs of money for stockholders since Rosenberg started saying this in 2009"

     

    I don't get it. Aren't these smart guys supposed to call bear markets before they happen? What was Merrill Lynch saying about the market in 2007? Oh, yeah. Right. Killed the company riding the bull thesis right into the 2008 collapse.

     

    Why would anyone pay attention to this guy, except to go in exactly the opposite direction?
    3 Feb 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
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