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More on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters' (GMCR) FQ1: The company sold 4.95M Keurig brewers during...

More on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters' (GMCR) FQ1: The company sold 4.95M Keurig brewers during the period, up 18% from a year ago. Gross margin was up 220 bps to 31.3% due to lower green coffee costs. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters sees FY2013 EPS of $2.72-2.82, compared to the consensus mark of analysts calling for $2.71. GMCR -8.1% AH with investors seeming to have been expecting a stronger beat. (PR)
Comments (31)
  • vmetla
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    This does not make any sense. Short sellers manipulating this one.
    6 Feb 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • activistinvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (49) | Send Message
     
    They fired on all cylinders. Something is definitely wrong here!
    6 Feb 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • PeakOiler
    , contributor
    Comments (295) | Send Message
     
    If they normally 'beat' by a mile, and this time they 'beat' by a smallish margin, then the stock will always sell off. It's all about the track record and expectations.
    6 Feb 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • lalubye01
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Then How do you explain AMZN?
    7 Feb 2013, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1915) | Send Message
     
    Yes, those who're expecting spectacular results will turn around and short this stock, but eventually, it should come around, especially when real investors look for something for the future.
    7 Feb 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Bill Maurer
    , contributor
    Comments (4759) | Send Message
     
    Poor revenue guidance with a stock that went from 15 to 53. Yeah, it's going to drop.
    6 Feb 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Bensonaire
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
     
    What happened with this unfair result?
    Is there anyone can explain GMCR's falling down in spite of EPS of $0.76 beats by $0.11. Revenue of $1.34M (+16% Y/Y) beats by $10M?
    If Short sellers fabricated this one, it would be a big problem and we need to demand them to correct.
    Anyway, I love GMCR and continuously hold GMCR and buy more shares when it is low.
    Appreciate any one's reply to my question.
    6 Feb 2013, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Bill Maurer
    , contributor
    Comments (4759) | Send Message
     
    Stock went from 15 to 53. Revenue guidance was poor. Q1 revenues were below company's midpoint.
    6 Feb 2013, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • luckycharlie
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    Bensonaire:

     

    What is unfair (if anything) is that the analysts cut estimates and buy shares when the weak (or trusting) hands sell their shares. Then the company beats the lowered estimates and the shares go back up.

     

    GMCR has rebounded pretty well from an absolute drubbing, from $115 down to $15 in less than a year. There are shorts who absolutely hate this company. They don't give up easy.
    6 Feb 2013, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Bensonaire
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
     
    Hi Luckycharlie,

     

    Thank you so much for the reply to my question.
    It looks that there are some complicated and tangled interests.
    We live in a so so world.
    Would you tell me what "the weak hands" denotes?
    In that case, Do you think GMCR could not beat the original estimate
    (not lowered estimate)?
    6 Feb 2013, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1915) | Send Message
     
    As I said in another posting, it's the shorts at play and the volume isn't that much either, so it's a good sign that there isn't any run on this stock but those with weak nerves who can't take the stress of holding onto their shares until the price is actually driven up. I would suggest that those who're long like me, stay the course and steer the ship into harbor. I suspect that it's GMCR's competitors with deep pockets who're trying to short this stock until it's down and out. Supporters must now band together to bankrupt the short-sellers, just as when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market and lost several billion dollars in the end, after the market refused to be cornered by them. I bought some more each time when it went below $45, $44 and $43, so now, my losses on the way down has been covered sonewhat on the rebound to $45.
    6 Feb 2013, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • activistinvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (49) | Send Message
     
    A beat is a beat especially on both top and bottom lines. For a stock to sell-off on what is perceived a "smallish" margin makes absolutely no sense. Adding that k-cup patents expired and Starbucks and others have yet to affect GMCR core business. GMCR estimated EPS for next quarter of $0.70-$0.75. Analysts were looking for $0.72. To assume the lower end of the estimate is the shorts manipulating the stock. Let's hope everyone gets a good nights sleep and reacts logically during tomorrows trading.
    6 Feb 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Bill Maurer
    , contributor
    Comments (4759) | Send Message
     
    Analysts are expecting $0.73 next quarter. Also, no other effects on the business? Did you look at their sales growth? 14-18% compared to expectations for 20.2%.
    6 Feb 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Misho ILIEV
    , contributor
    Comments (570) | Send Message
     
    Not all beats are created equal :)
    6 Feb 2013, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • activistinvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (49) | Send Message
     
    According to Yahoo finance, it reads $0.73, Marketwatch reads $0.72. Regardless GMCR still guided EPS in that range. The 14%-18% growth is for the current quarter. I think the analysts (short sellers) manipulated that number. We are coming off of the holiday quarter. A quarter where the government had everyone in limbo with the fiscal fiasco and GMCR still beat estimates. Growth has slowed down for most companies in the current quarter. How many companies this earnings quarter came in light with forecasts in the current quarter. I will answer that for you. Most! GMCR raised fiscal 2013 profit to $2.82/per share. Analysts were estimating $2.71. So here we are focusing on an EPS guidance that falls within the range that GMCR is estimating and a illogical sell-off. Unless you are a short seller this sell-off is unjustified.
    6 Feb 2013, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Bill Maurer
    , contributor
    Comments (4759) | Send Message
     
    "analysts (short sellers) manipulated that number"

     

    Actually, no. Because GMCR guided to 15% to 20% for the full year, and just 14% to 18% for Q1, their busiest quarter, they need more growth in Q2-Q4. Thus, analysts were expecting more in Q2, which is why the stock rallied so much, and is now falling.
    6 Feb 2013, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • vandeley
    , contributor
    Comments (113) | Send Message
     
    This stock has been on an incredible run from about 22 to 48 in 4 months. To keep that kind of momentum you need to beat expectations which they didn't, so the stock sells off as I would expect. It's called profit taking not short seller manipulation
    7 Feb 2013, 02:16 AM Reply Like
  • markb
    , contributor
    Comments (417) | Send Message
     
    Several years ago GMCR had a beat, traded down AH and was up the next day. I would suggest refraining from explaining until we see how it trades tomorrow.
    6 Feb 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1915) | Send Message
     
    Regardless of how it trades to day, this stock is good for the future, since results were much better, as compared with previous quarters, so it's not the time for weak nerves. I've been watching it the whole morning and the average volume is less than 300 shares per trade, so it's only the small traders who're getting out, taking profit or shorting the stock. Nothing to worry about, actually. Don't panic and lose your cool. I'm here for the long haul.
    7 Feb 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • activistinvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (49) | Send Message
     
    I agree Markb. Just venting frustration.
    6 Feb 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • activistinvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (49) | Send Message
     
    The walls don't entertain....lol
    6 Feb 2013, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • rrobster
    , contributor
    Comments (124) | Send Message
     
    Makes about as much sense as what's been happening with Amazon.
    6 Feb 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph Poma
    , contributor
    Comments (437) | Send Message
     
    Stock ran up too much pre-earnings. The AH drop makes perfect sense...it's called PROFIT-TAKING!
    6 Feb 2013, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • Billiebear
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Shorties drive up the stock in the a.m and short in the p.m. This is a good stock; buy!
    7 Feb 2013, 01:33 AM Reply Like
  • lalubye01
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    They do the same thing to AAPL, F, FB now GMCR this game starting to look too familiar
    7 Feb 2013, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  • William Rudder
    , contributor
    Comments (339) | Send Message
     
    Small victories. It is more important to make consistent gains of an acceptable magnitude than it is to make the maximum on every trade. After a runup from $15 to $50, how can you be mad when it drops to $45?
    7 Feb 2013, 06:05 AM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1915) | Send Message
     
    The shorties are taking advantage of the fact that the price didn't shoot up, as the bulls had probably gone to sleep or on vacation, so they're trying to push the press down to take profits later. If the price didn't crash within the next couple of weeks, they will be rushing to cover, as they are just as nervous about the stock changing direction, as the bulls had been about the stock turning down. Weak nerves make for sore losers.
    7 Feb 2013, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • luckycharlie
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure the stock isn't reasonably priced. I mean if they make $2.50 a share, an 18 multiple gets a $45 stock price.

     

    Whats fair? Maybe there's still growth? If it keeps growing, share price will go up. If not, the story could be over. Einhorn was just on Bloomberg TV and he sounds like he's still short (and sticking to his story). I hope he's wrong (and he didn't sound completely confident) but it isn't like the stock is ridiculously cheap.
    7 Feb 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Bill Maurer
    , contributor
    Comments (4759) | Send Message
     
    EPS being significantly propped up though by the buyback.
    7 Feb 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • luckycharlie
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    Personally I'm a big fan of share buybacks, as long as they aren't "for show." I'd rather have the company buy back shares than pay a dividend, as long as the share price is cheap enough (of course).
    8 Feb 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • ccschons
    , contributor
    Comments (213) | Send Message
     
    I am long GMCR.

     

    --Chris Schons
    7 Feb 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
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