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June nonfarm payrolls: +18K vs. +125K expected, +25K previous (revised from +54K). Unemployment...

June nonfarm payrolls: +18K vs. +125K expected, +25K previous (revised from +54K). Unemployment 9.2% vs. 9.1% expected, 9.1% prior.
Comments (47)
  • OMG!
    8 Jul 2011, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • Shouldn't there be someone on CNBC telling us to ignore this number?
    8 Jul 2011, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Nice work ADP model / Economists. You nailed it!
    8 Jul 2011, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Unbelievably bad numbers. This is not a soft patch as we have not seen a recovery yet.
    8 Jul 2011, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • QE-3 Imminent?
    8 Jul 2011, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Obamanomics proving to be the definition of failure!
    8 Jul 2011, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Should have taken my profits yesterday.
    8 Jul 2011, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Romney is going to create jobs???
    8 Jul 2011, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • No, but he might have enough sense to get the hell out of the way and let the private sector create some instead of acting as if the federal government is the only source of employment in this country like the Vacationer-in-Chief does now.
    8 Jul 2011, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • Romney isn't president, Obama is, and no he isn't creating jobs.
    8 Jul 2011, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • what's stopping the private sector from creating jobs? Record profits?
    8 Jul 2011, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • lol!!!...you made me spew my coffee.
    8 Jul 2011, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Companies create jobs just because they have profits? What school of economics is that? Besides, I think by 3rd qtr the 'record profits' meme will no longer apply to US companies.
    8 Jul 2011, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • There is a significant lack of demand as debtors at all levels, personal, local, muncipal, state, and Fed's are up to their eyeballs in debt. People are de-leveraging. In a consumer driven economy (70%) when people start paying off debt....they stop buying other stuff.
    8 Jul 2011, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • wm:

     

    Only trouble with that argument is that consumer credit has been expanding for months, now, and sales of all kinds of stuff (and associated profits) have been climbing.

     

    The complaint has been that the economy hasn't been expanding "fast enough" or there's not enough hiring, but that's not a function of the recent behavior of those employed, who are, indeed, spending. The problem is that the Government has made it unappealing for businesses to invest or hire, with real and threatened added costs, regulations, taxes, etc. And, banks have been disincentivized to lend because the Government's artificial maintenance of too-low rates makes commercial lending spreads unattractive, given perceived risks, and makes money-parking in Treasuries look like the smart play.

     

    The Government, itself, has set these policies that attract capital away from the private sector and toward its own bloated self.
    8 Jul 2011, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Further, just off the presses:

     

    3:13 PM May Consumer Credit: +$5.1B (+2.5% annual rate) to $2.43T, vs. consensus of +$4B; April revised to +$5.7B from +$6.3B. It's the eighth straight monthly increase after 20 months of contraction. Credit card debt rose $3.4B, or +5.1% annual rate, after falling for four straight months.
    8 Jul 2011, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Size of workforce is decreasing, participation rate is at a 25 yr low and credit is expanding? This is bad not good. Banks and the govt are pushing mortgage forgiveness so what are people going to do when they don't have to pay their mortgage?...run up the credit card? how exactly is this positive?

     

    The majority of the non-revolving credit has come from govt (taxpayer) backed loans. Thus the unfunded liability aspect continues to grow.
    www.zerohedge.com/arti...
    8 Jul 2011, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Tack, I truly enjoy your posts. Great distillation.
    9 Jul 2011, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Unexpectedly! Non-Recovery Summer Part II marches on!

     

    I'm glad that grabbed a bit of SPXU at the end of the day yesterday. Looks like that's the only thing I own that will be up today.
    8 Jul 2011, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • After the S&P rallied over 7% in two weeks, the market should fall considerably today. Now we will see if it does.
    8 Jul 2011, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • The US should realize that this is the steady-state rate of employment for the foreseeable future.
    8 Jul 2011, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • For those of you who remember Monday Night Football with Howard Cosell and "Dandy" Don Merideth..."Turn out the lights, the partys over..."
    8 Jul 2011, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • Where's Econdoc?
    8 Jul 2011, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • ...I think people should stop looking at individual reports and focus more on overall trends...in this case, the overall trend appears to be improving and we appear to be still early in the cycle:

     

    research.stlouisfed.or...

     

    ...also note compensation is steadily increasing as well:

     

    research.stlouisfed.or...

     

    ...overall, the trend still looks favorable...
    8 Jul 2011, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • This is supposed to be the key summer hiring season and there is no significant private sector hiring to be seen. Government is on a hiring freeze and is offering early buyouts, that will further drop the govt payrolls because the people that are replacing the feds are already employed contractors. The market is going to tank today and possibly carry over into next week. I'm looking to buy into a couple of high yield utility stocks so maybe this is my chance. We'll see what President Present says at 10:30 this morning and watch how the markets react.
    8 Jul 2011, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • Until the government starts hiring until of cutting, I don't see how we will make up for these jobs. Very short-sighted planning on the part of state Republicans to be making government smaller. It's like the biggest employer in a small town has decided to slash its workforce, and people are wondering why unemployment is rising in this town. Republicans will destroy this once great country.
    8 Jul 2011, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • matt:

     

    Well, gosh, if we just had 100% employment, even if through miles of cubicle farms, occupied by limitless quantities of government paper shufflers, we'd have a wonderful prosperous country, right?
    8 Jul 2011, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Tack,

     

    This is why I can't stand the lack of thumb's down button - its all symptomatic of the decline of personal responsibility, self-determination, and political correctness - god forbid we damage someone's over-inflated sense of self-esteem.

     

    I wish they would bring it back because the quality of communication has definitely fallen on this website. You used to have to back up your assertions with a cogent argument and factual evidence, now you can just spew without thought.
    8 Jul 2011, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • I agree about the thumbs down button -- it really took a lot of the enjoyment out of reading the comments on here.
    8 Jul 2011, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • how does one square the NFP number miss with this weeks upbeat reports on retail sales etc, they either are correlated or they are not, both reflect past events and confirm that consumers are consuming more yet unemployment has gotten worse. Seems like those working have decided to move forward no matter, at odds higher retails sales and higher unemployment seem to bear this out which IMO is good for the economy and markets.
    8 Jul 2011, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • enigmaman,

     

    What I noticed, anecdotally of course, is that the places that were really busy were busy because they had huge sales (70% off on clothing, etc.) and the ones that weren't running sales were basically empty (Home Depot, Lowes). So liquidation sales will increase revenues but I suspect have a negative impact on margins. We could be witnessing an inventory build that will lead to margin compression. Anyway, no expert just something to contemplate.

     

    Of course being in South Florida the economic situation has shown no meaningful recovery at all - we are not far off the worst of the recession and house prices are definitely falling again. I can only hope that we are not representative of the rest of the country.
    8 Jul 2011, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • CW- all indications are we are moving forward, erratically but forward, the biggest obstacle to the economy is Obama, he doesnt have a clue what to do, its not in his DNA, for instance, he is now contemplating extending to one year from his original 3 months how long those in default of FHA are allowed to miss payments before the property can be put into foreclosure. Now how does that help the real estate market recover, it just delays the inevitable. Why does he do it, because in his mind its fair, he wants to help the lower income the most which BTW are the ones who most secure FHA loans. When he stops the class war fare, stops following his FAIRNESS doctrine and starts representing all the people maybe even Obama will be able to make some serious headway, but dont hold your breath.

     

    The real estate market will not find a bottom until the government gets out of its way, stops trying to help it and just concentrates on policies that will stimulate and encourage businesses to grow, the cure for our economy is jobs but jobs wont materialize without the business world feeling confident in the future, once they feel confident so will the populace and that is the key to it all.
    8 Jul 2011, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • CW:

     

    People always worry about margins too much. They have to put in a broader context.

     

    When one is running operations with high fixed costs (bricks-and-mortar realty, leases, etc), it's much more important to the bottom line to generate volume, to amortize the fixed costs, than it is to get obessed with the margin per widget. Volume can cure a whole host of ills.

     

    This is why retailers, who have been seeing steady sales and revenue expansions (many more units sold at lower prices) have been reporting profit gains, not reductions.
    8 Jul 2011, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Tack,

     

    That does make sense. I guess it all depends on the extent of future economic weakness - if we get muddle through 2% growth this is going to be very positive for the markets in my opinion.

     

    I think the key is that labor costs will remain low for a long time which should be the biggest positive for corporate margins - too bad Mainstreet's margins won't experience the same benefit.
    8 Jul 2011, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Raise taxes on wealthy and put Americans to work, roads -bridges-airports-public housing.
    8 Jul 2011, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • T330- Obama was supposed to put people to work with his promise of shovel ready jobs (roads -bridges-airports-public housing) if we went along with his request for stimulus, we did he didnt. Later he admitted there never were any shovel ready jobs and then just recently actually laughed about that farce he perpetrated on the American people.

     

    As far as raising taxes on the rich, tell Obama to stop accepting donations from them, stop sucking up to them and then I will believe he is sincere and not just playing typical class war fare that the libs play each and every election time
    8 Jul 2011, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • You mean shovel ready jobs? Oh, wait....
    8 Jul 2011, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • And you forgot digging ditches. That's very labor intensive and can put a lot of low skilled people to work.:-(
    8 Jul 2011, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Lower payrolls on government workers, cut public housing, cut social security and medicaid, put willing to be productive Americans to work
    8 Jul 2011, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Em- asking the Dem to commit suicide for the good of the people, now thats a stretch
    8 Jul 2011, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Kudos to all economists! You're only off by 100k, no biggie!
    8 Jul 2011, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Folks who keep a maniacal focus on employment (or unemployment), as "the" measure of economic performance will miss the boat. The economy is driven by the vast hoards of employed people and their specific behavior, not the misfortunes of the unemployed. Unless the employed get newly scared and stop spending, the economy will move forward.

     

    (Please excuse me if this offends the socially conscious, but it's just the way it is.)
    8 Jul 2011, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • > The economy is driven by the vast hoards of employed people and their specific behavior, not the misfortunes of the unemployed.

     

    For a while, until they reach a point of no return. History is full of examples.
    8 Jul 2011, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • But what concerns me is the Labor Participation Rate fell to a 25 year low of 64.1%, hourly earnings as well as average hours worked are down as well. Fewer people with buckets bailing less water cant be good for a sinking boat.
    8 Jul 2011, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • Agree but (always a but) will the specific behavior of the vast hoards of employed people, who are seeing their non-discretionary expenses (food and energy) increase while watching people in their own families struggle with unemployment change to a hoarding mentality? And will the retired on fixed income trying to rely on (non-)income from 'safe' investments defer discretionary purchases? Perception becomes reality and that's the concern of many focusing on the employment numbers. We really don't have any leadership, especially leadership by example, from Washington.
    8 Jul 2011, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • inthemoney- can you provide some, examples I mean?
    8 Jul 2011, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • inthemoney- Im still waiting
    9 Jul 2011, 06:35 PM Reply Like
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