"It's been an expensive wait" for bond bears, write the stalwart bond bulls at Hoisington...


"It's been an expensive wait" for bond bears, write the stalwart bond bulls at Hoisington Management. Rates may rise periodically, they say, but an "insufficiency of demand" caused by over-indebtedness assures they won't stay up for long. Higher taxes just agreed to in D.C. (not to mention CA) make the bull case on Treasurys even stronger.
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Comments (13)
  • Bret Jensen
    , contributor
    Comments (13657) | Send Message
     
    Argument would be more convincing if the Federal Reserve wasn't buying 75% of new Treasury dept debt......even the most myopic analyst or commentator realizes this is unsustainable....Paul Krugman excluded.
    8 Feb 2013, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • chopchop0
    , contributor
    Comments (5069) | Send Message
     
    "Paul Krugman excluded."

     

    lol. Isn't that the truth....
    8 Feb 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • apppp
    , contributor
    Comments (359) | Send Message
     
    I think Kyle Bass said it best when he said something like "the fed's setting the rate on the 10yr and then the govts looking at the yield and saying I don't see a problem in the bond market."
    9 Feb 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • PalmDesertRat
    , contributor
    Comments (3737) | Send Message
     
    Except for this article,it seems that the entire world agrees that bond prices are going to fall.

     

    Could the consensus be correct this time?
    8 Feb 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (11195) | Send Message
     
    Hoisington is a one trick pony...fixed income now fixed income forever...been a nice ride for them (fixed income wise) but....duration will kill them unless they do a Gundlach and become a stock jock...
    8 Feb 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (11195) | Send Message
     
    WHOSX has a duration of 20.2 which means it is effectively the etf TLT....ride'em cowboy...
    9 Feb 2013, 02:14 AM Reply Like
  • Tony Petroski
    , contributor
    Comments (6356) | Send Message
     
    There's no bull case for treasuries. Higher taxes "just agreed to in D.C.,..." and elsewhere are soon to be proven just so much Hope and Forward!. Soon we'll be conditioned to believe we can fix things by making "...billionaires and trillionaires pay their fair share..."

     

    We must borrow more money and raise taxes on half the nation so the other half can have free Obamaphones. The people have spoken. My only regret is that George Soros became a billionaire shorting the English pound, used part of his pile to promote the ruination of the American economy and now is going to become a trillionaire shorting the dollar and U.S. Treasuries.

     

    "Why is it that I always get the last laff?"
    -- Yogi Laffer commenting on the latest effort at prosperity through taxation.
    8 Feb 2013, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • winningtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (2459) | Send Message
     
    The only reason the bond market is in good shape is the FED buying any bond they can get their grubby hands on. Without the FED buying, the market would totally collapse, which is why the FED can never end QE infinity.
    8 Feb 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • GregBed
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    "Rates may rise periodically, they say, but an 'insufficiency of demand' caused by over-indebtedness assures they won't stay up for long"
    "Insufficiency of demand" on what side of the transaction? If they are talking about demand on the buyers side being insufficient, then again the pressure is for the price to fall and the rates to rise.
    If on the govt side, over-indebtedness creates more demand for debt which increases the supply, driving the price down and the rate up.
    I do not understand this statement.
    8 Feb 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • pollyserial
    , contributor
    Comments (1113) | Send Message
     
    Being long treasuries is certainly not the popular trade at the moment. Which is one reason that I'm looking for an entry into TLT next week.
    8 Feb 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Petrarch
    , contributor
    Comments (1111) | Send Message
     
    way to early. 10 year is heading to +4%. you want to wait until then.

     

    P
    9 Feb 2013, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • hahaha48
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    i called the end of bond market and you will not see yield this low for many years to come.

     

    I am long TBT
    8 Feb 2013, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • Racquetballisfun
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    High Yield bonds that mature before or just after 2016 is a good bet, IMO. No way Obama allows the fed to ruin his "legacy". His replacement will have to do it.

     

    So yea, I guess I'm bear long-term, but short I'm all bull at the expense of our grandchildren.
    10 Feb 2013, 12:00 AM Reply Like
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