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Just wait for Q2 earnings, optimists said back in June - and after an ugly jobs report, bulls...

Just wait for Q2 earnings, optimists said back in June - and after an ugly jobs report, bulls are doubling down on that hope. But estimates are down 4.3% from a May 13 peak, Dave Kansas notes, and financials could be especially disappointing; maybe too much pessimism has become too much sunshine. Still, won't it make earnings surprises more likely?
Comments (19)
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (4040) | Send Message
     
    With purchasing power and wages down while jobs are not being created, it's hard to be optimistic on many sectors of the economy.
    9 Jul 2011, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • wyostocks
    , contributor
    Comments (8231) | Send Message
     
    Agree. Replace "many" with "any" on last line.

     

    People are struggling and the MSM simply refuses to discuss the millions of unemployed and the seniors who are getting zero on their savings and are being forced to spend said savings just to survive.

     

    Just imagine the evening news/headlines if Bush were still president
    9 Jul 2011, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (4040) | Send Message
     
    Heh, I intentionally put 'many' since I'm long in some things... if I go all short I'll switch my sentiment to 'any'...
    9 Jul 2011, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • wyostocks
    , contributor
    Comments (8231) | Send Message
     
    kmi; fair point.
    9 Jul 2011, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • EMS
    , contributor
    Comments (579) | Send Message
     
    I see another whip-snap rally to new highs, unfortunately. Kills every last bear. Probably an inside job, with backup from the permabulls (i.e. Birinyi) who have been spouting this past week.
    9 Jul 2011, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • fxmaven
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    Great, more money to be made when the souffle collapses. 3X -R2K (TZA) will turn out to be a massive money maker in the next 3 months.

     

    Actaully I missed shorting the first tech bubble, yet it seems there is a second chance coming. Life does give second chances sometimes.
    9 Jul 2011, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • J 457
    , contributor
    Comments (951) | Send Message
     
    What do you base your sentiment upon? What will fund the rally, and with new money from where?
    9 Jul 2011, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • EMS
    , contributor
    Comments (579) | Send Message
     
    You and I are funding the rallies in part. WS and whomever is flooding the market with free cash and selling tons of puts, loading up on SPY and whatever floats their boats. That is their mandate. On the other hand, the polyannas are convinced this is the second coming of the Great Bull of the 80's-2000. Open your eyes J.
    9 Jul 2011, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • Stone Fox Capital
    , contributor
    Comments (6263) | Send Message
     
    Naturally its going to lead to earnings surprises. Estimates shouldn't be falling. Just another sign that analysts are too bearish. Won't it all end when analysts up estimates by 4.3% going into earnings? Until they get that bullish, the run will continue.
    9 Jul 2011, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • fxmaven
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    The run-up to 1340 has already incorporated a large part of the earnings surprise the "whisper numbers" which are not published. This is the true inside game.

     

    Published estimates are misleading at best, disinformation at worst. The only way to tell is how the equities react to the actual releases.

     

    I've rarely seen people make money buy on a 7.2% run up into earnings, although possible to buy on over-reaction to a "miss".
    9 Jul 2011, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Origa
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    True, the companies have not been hiring because of the potential punishment to the company stock, if they miss the mark and earn less than expected.
    9 Jul 2011, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • apberusdisvet
    , contributor
    Comments (2897) | Send Message
     
    Margin compression is a bitch. It is difficult to raise prices to ameliorate higher input costs when the consumer has less net spendable. Q2 numbers will not be good, but more than likely will be massaged to the hilt. Q3 will start to show the real damage.
    9 Jul 2011, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • GotLife
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Massaging numbers, while betting on the come, eventually leads to a "surprise." FNMA and government debt loads are some of those surprises. Personal bankruptcies and foreclosures are others.

     

    The odd thing is that none of these should be surprising to anyone, even the gambler, the dreamer, the denier and the uneducated. But so it goes with most things in life, not just finance.
    9 Jul 2011, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • spald_fr
    , contributor
    Comments (2733) | Send Message
     
    [Q3 will start to show the real damage.]

     

    This is not my father's Depression. The government provides the apples these days.
    9 Jul 2011, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • spald_fr
    , contributor
    Comments (2733) | Send Message
     
    [June nonfarm payrolls: +18K vs. +125K expected, +25K previous (revised from +54K). Unemployment 9.2% vs. 9.1% expected, 9.1% prior. ]

     

    WSJ today calls this "double-dip unemployment".
    9 Jul 2011, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9845) | Send Message
     
    The WSJ is a voice for the Republican National Committee...
    look at the numbers yourself..look at the year over year change in
    non seasonally adjusted private sector employment...forget Politics
    from WSJ,IBJ,NYT, and especially Paul Krugman...
    9 Jul 2011, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • HiSpeed
    , contributor
    Comments (1112) | Send Message
     
    How much worse does it need to get before the majority realizes that Obamanomics and Socialism never work?
    9 Jul 2011, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mad_Max_A_Million
    , contributor
    Comments (1175) | Send Message
     
    If you follow the major layoffs lately and see NASA and the Pentagon rolling up the red carpet and walking away, plus the services starting to lay off troops (that's right - no pension, no severance) then you can only come to the conclusion that the WSJ is just publishing a no-brainier.

     

    I'm not a doom and gloomer because it's popular - But because It pays off on the betting line.
    9 Jul 2011, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • scott_grant2
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    we still have the same problem if not worse than 3-4 years ago under bush.. democrats pushed thru illegal health care law, they didnt want to negotiate, now they say we need to come together.. its pretty hard to do that, when they passed health care with a rare 50% rule, used only for budgets in the past and handed out kick backs to senators..
    we need to fix our trade issue, in manufacturing, textile and ENERGY.. until all three or some of these get fixed.. jobs wont come back.. greenspan made a mistake not including housing prices in his inflationary measures and he kept rates down to low to long.. we wouldnt be in this mess, if rates were raised during the early 2000's.. but offshoring jobs not just to mexico but now to india and china has eroded the great consumer economy.. (i.e. consumers have to have jobs to be consumers)... start reversing some of these bad decisions and jobs will come back..
    10 Jul 2011, 02:22 AM Reply Like
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