Seeking Alpha

One more reason solar stocks could be moving higher today: German polysilicon maker Wacker says...

One more reason solar stocks could be moving higher today: German polysilicon maker Wacker says it's ramping production due to strong demand, and has eliminated "short-time working schedules." The news follows a major 2H12 decline in plant utilization rates due to soft demand and high inventories, and comes in spite of worries China will soon impose tariffs on polysilicon imports. Publicly-traded manufacturers: WFR, DQ, LDK, STP, YGE. (earlier)
Comments (13)
  • Sorry, but there is still a huge overhang in supply. Prices will continue to collapse into late 2013 and beyond.
    11 Feb 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • DeepValue where are your numbers that you are saying there is an oversupply? where is this information at? I would like to find it for myself so I know where this type of information is located at. Numbers from/out of China is really hard to read/find much on it.


    11 Feb 2013, 07:26 PM Reply Like


    "Analysts say more failed companies are on the way as the industry works through the oversupply of goods and soft demand in certain markets, such as Germany. "



    "More than half of China-listed solar firms project a profit slump in 2012, further hitting the industry with a severe supply glut."
    12 Feb 2013, 04:17 AM Reply Like
  • deepvalue:


    I read comments in the links you provided but I still did not see any "Numbers" on GW produced vs GW installed/bought/stored & unsold. Much of the reading I did there (and those links included in those articles) seemed to be more of opinion pieces than actual solid research. The one did have links to some government grants that showed "Increases" in spending in US and Germany with unknown in other high solar areas of Europe such as Italy & Greece (both countries are broke so getting numbers from them would be hard if not impossible and would be up to industrial/individual investments rather than government ones.)


    If you have other links or data access that contain raw data other than opinions I would still be very interested in finding them as I've come up blank on this myself. There seems to be a lot of Green People saying one than and Oil People saying just the opposite & no data to support their opinion pieces.


    thanks very much I know SA has become a rather poor choice in last 8~12 months for REAL data & been pummeled with puff, opinions and half truths in attempts to manipulate stocks of choice.


    12 Feb 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • O.K. "Mark" since you'd like "numbers" then why not supply your own sources for "numbers" instead of complaining that others aren't do the work for you to provide the information you need.
    12 Feb 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • DV that is why I'm asking, I have not been able to find any "Numbers" just opinions without any data to back them up. You stated there is a "Huge Oversupply" yet when asked you are not supplying any "numbers" to back up this quote of a huge oversupply.


    Others are indicating there may me an oversupply yet they also provide NO DATA to back up their statements. I'm pretty sure there are not a bunch of huge warehouses being stuffed to the ceiling with panels and or modules. This is what most people seem to think is going on yet I can't find it.


    13 Feb 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • So do you have any evidence, links or ANYTHING to prove there is no oversupply? No? Then maybe you should get to work.


    Even if my two sources aren't to your high standards that is still two more sources to SOMETHING than you've provided.


    Please link to your sources that disprove the solar panel oversupply.


    The oversupply is real and I wait for you to prove me wrong. (I have a feeling its going to be a long wait).



    :::Atwater explained how the market got into its current state and how this is, in fact, a good thing. Since 2000, photovoltaics (PV or solar power) has grown up from a ‘boutique’ research-and-development scale enterprise to become a global industry with a comprehensive supply chain, equipment industry, photovoltaic systems distribution and installation businesses, and new modes for project finance. In the last three years, this has led to PV manufacturing capacity continuing to rocket forward. Today it stands at a worldwide module production capacity of 60 GW (Gigawatts) peak.:::
    13 Feb 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • While there may be 60GW of "Available Factory Production" there appears to be a market for "40~45 GW of new installs" seems that there COULD be an over production but just because there is 60GW of available production does not mean they are actually making 60GW worth of solar panels.


    Look at Automobile Production they could say pretty much the same thing that we could produce 600K cars worth of global production with a market for only 450K cars (just fabricated numbers.) That would mean automotive manufactures would require all plants running 3 shifts 7 days a week to make the 600K cars, which they are not doing. The "Press" has been using the 60/45GW numbers for some time (being said of the solar manufactures.) Just because there is production equipment available to make that much cells does not actually mean they are making that much.


    Pricing seems to have come down in last 2 years so there is some "overproduction" and or supply chains cutting costs to move more of their cells. That is the real question without going to each and every solar cell, wafer and module maker and sorting thru each one's (if available) public records for actual production numbers. This is the question no no can answer or which does not seem to exist because so many of the manufactures or in China which does not have the same company reporting requirements.


    All this said I'm not picking on you at all I have stated several time I too have looked and not been able to located those "claimed" supply VS demand numbers but it is like attempting to find out how many socks were made and how many were bought probably some numbers SOMEWHERE but actually finding them is the issue.


    14 Feb 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Fair enough...not trying to be uncivil.


    Long term solar is going to be a great investment once the scientists and engineers develop a way for it to be as efficient as coal.
    14 Feb 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • I agree even with Nat Gas at high (and just announced higher increase than thought stockpiles) that somewhere along the lines the Solar energy is all front loaded costs with the rest of the time being light maintenance for cleaning and free SUN rays charging your grid.


    So long term the solar cell generation is great for businesses where much of their energy costs are during normal working hours with sun up.


    14 Feb 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • 2013 will shine for the Solar Sector:
    STP is +61% up in the last 3 months
    LDK is up +78% in the same period.
    It is just very beginning, the Solar Sector is grossly undervalued.
    12 Feb 2013, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • Agree with your stance on the Solar Sector in 2013.
    12 Feb 2013, 02:38 AM Reply Like
  • Maybe Wacker has lower costs and better prices, like $16/kg, that are earning it more business. In the end, the most efficient producers should drive out their competition.
    12 Feb 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
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