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Are markets unprepared for a big rally in Treasury prices, asks Paul Day. JPMorgan's Treasury...

Are markets unprepared for a big rally in Treasury prices, asks Paul Day. JPMorgan's Treasury Client Survey shows the highest level of shorts since June 2011 - right around the time Treasury prices began a sharp advance. TLT -3.4%, TBT +6.2% YTD.
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Comments (4)
  • Chris DeMuth Jr.
    , contributor
    Comments (5641) | Send Message
     
    Interesting take. For further reading, here is another perspective:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    12 Feb 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • Whitehawk
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
     
    The shorts in June 2011 got KILLED in the following two months. Look at a chart of the 10yr vs. gold in Aug 2011: hyperbolic, in unison.
    12 Feb 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • hahaha48
    , contributor
    Comments (1279) | Send Message
     
    I am long TBT and I am standing firm on my believe you have seen the low on yields for the next 5 years
    12 Feb 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • thechaser
    , contributor
    Comments (601) | Send Message
     
    you know haha, i had been thinking the same thing but the more i look at it like for instance the cot on the commercials for the ust 10/20, man, they have really bumped up over the last couple of weeks and the folks holding these contracts are definitely better connected than me;

     

    also, look at the correlation on the pm with the ust and i think the cme lightening up on margin is all managed from above to defend the ust market;

     

    something to think about
    12 Feb 2013, 01:44 PM Reply Like
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