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Jan. Retail Sales: +0.1% vs. +0.1% expected, +0.5% prior. Ex-auto +0.2% vs +0.2%...

Jan. Retail Sales+0.1% vs. +0.1% expected, +0.5% prior. Ex-auto +0.2% vs +0.2% expected, +0.3% prior.
Comments (14)
  • 440978
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    Good news! Right?

     

    I have argued that the stock market has already crashed. See my article here: http://seekingalpha.co...
    13 Feb 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph Stuber
    , contributor
    Comments (1716) | Send Message
     
    know

     

    It's getting down to crunch time on your call. You sure need a broad market sell off today.

     

    Watch the euro. A sharp drop there will translate to a stock sell off. In my opinion your call is still in tact as there are likely a lot of sell stops about 180 - 200 points lower basis the Dow but you are sure going to have to get a good portion of that today to expect a collapse tomorrow.

     

    JS
    13 Feb 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • 440978
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    Joseph, you drive a hard bargain. If the market begins to go down tomorrow and over the next few weeks we have a complete discontinuation of the cyclical bull market, lose most of the gains made since 2009, will you dispute my call if it takes until the end of the month?

     

    I have an eery confidence that it is all but inevitable and has, in a sense, already occurred. There is nothing that could be done to reverse this crash that is going to take place. There are times in the market when perhaps a certain outcome is not inevitable but I believe this is not one of them.

     

    If the market does crash here in February, whether it falls apart completely tomorrow or requires a couple weeks to do so, either way I will do quite fine. That is my ultimate goal as I told you before: financial autonomy.

     

    Once again I will leave you my friend with "we shall see."

     

    Know
    13 Feb 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph Stuber
    , contributor
    Comments (1716) | Send Message
     
    know

     

    Actually I said we needed a sharp move lower Wednesday, Thursday and Friday to validate your call and I thought it was in full play as it could happen. I also said a sharp drop in the euro would translate to a sharp stock sell off.

     

    Futures down 50 at moment on lower euro. We now have Japan in a mess, the eurozone numbers coming in worse than thought, the US printing negative GDP in 4th qtr.

     

    And no it doesn't need to fall apart completely today but it certainly needs to fall hard today and again tomorrow. Looks to me like you might just get that.

     

    Unless this day manages to reverse the early downside momentum I am inclined to say your call may be remarkably precise - especially considering that it was made about 2 months ago.

     

    JS
    14 Feb 2013, 05:50 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph Stuber
    , contributor
    Comments (1716) | Send Message
     
    know

     

    I also mentioned in a recent article that we should watch the rhetoric coming out of the G7 regarding currency manipulation. The G 20 seems to be weighing in on this subject now.

     

    I too have a premonition. I see a global recession and a broad sell off in coming months that may end up with a new Bretton Woods type agreement that establishes "Special Drawing Rights" units as the new world reserve currency replacing the dollar.

     

    Such a shift can't occur unless the market crashes hard as political support for it won't be there. By the way we now are down 67 on futures. This could develop into a blood bath today. Now 71 down.

     

    JS
    14 Feb 2013, 06:04 AM Reply Like
  • 440978
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    Joseph, I think it is correct. My intuition gave me incredible confirmation last night—too difficult to explain.

     

    I like your comments about the Euro from yesterday: spot on! I don't understand the correlation of the Euro with a stock market crash. Could you explain?
    14 Feb 2013, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph Stuber
    , contributor
    Comments (1716) | Send Message
     
    Know

     

    After yesterday's close I would have thought you might have been a little concerned. Not as to outcome eventually but as to timing. I am now seeing futures move back up as the euro once again stabilizes.

     

    As to the euro, this market is fully ignoring all fundamentals. The fact that we are printing negative GDP in Europe, Japan and the US seems of no consequence. The fact that oil imports to China dropped sharply seems of no consequence either although it would seem to imply a lack of demand in China.

     

    Nothing matters in terms of real economic metrics. The only thing that matters to investors right now is currency manipulation. The euro's strong surge higher from 1.30 on Jan 4 to 1.37 Feb 1 correlates closely with US stocks rally.

     

    Of course a higher euro means a lower dollar and stock traders see that as postive for stocks which it should be for 2 reasons. First, all assets priced in dollars should go up as the dollar goes down. Second, a weaker dollar implies inflation which implies a borrow and spend sentiment which drives GDP which drives employment - all potentially positive.

     

    Again, the euro/stock correlation is pretty high in recent weeks and the only thing that I see moving markets is the movement of the euro relative to the dollar. The euro moves and stocks move in unison with a very small lag.

     

    JS
    14 Feb 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • pollyserial
    , contributor
    Comments (1093) | Send Message
     
    Joseph, to be fair, I think that kkw's revelation is more of a crash that begins to slide feb. 14? For my part, I'll be pretty surprised if to see an initial correction here of more than 5%, but I'll also be surprised if we don't correct, in the next weeks, and I'm currently trading with the notion that a top for the year might be at hand.

     

    edit: whoa. wrote that before the propulsive move from 1522-1519, that completley took me off guard. I was expecting a slow grind up to 1527 today. this could get interesting.
    13 Feb 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • 440978
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    Polly you are exactly right about Valentine's day being the beginning. Although I said it would be a steep and swift decline, I don't necessarily believe that we will see the full impact tomorrow or that we will reach the low in the S&P all in one day.

     

    In my most recent posts I articulated that the market will begin to fall apart tomorrow and this will continue until late in the month. With a 1074 price call on the S&P, I don't expect tomorrow will bring us there. Tomorrow will mark the beginning of the end of this cyclical bull market. Time will take care of the rest.

     

    Today's action has emboldened me. I believe we are on the precipice looking down. In my most recent article, I believe the crash has already occurred (link above). By this I mean the bat has made contact, the ball is sailing through the air, it's forty feet above the outfielders head and is dropping into the stands but still hasn't been caught by the fans holding up their mits. It's a homerun but not officially until it lands.

     

    Good luck friends!

     

    BTW Joseph is just giving me a hard time.
    13 Feb 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph Stuber
    , contributor
    Comments (1716) | Send Message
     
    know

     

    We certainly need to have a steep sell off today, tomorrow and Friday to validate the call. You called for 1074 in a rapid descent - perhaps by the 27th and starting on or around Valentine's day. I say that means today, tomorrow and Friday.

     

    As I said in my first post we could have a crash if we take out recent lows around 13,850 on the Dow. I suspect a ton of stops just under those lows and a rapid run for cover as they are triggered.

     

    Low volumes mean low liquidity and low liquidity means market makers will take huge protection if sell side volume hits them hard. Happened in August 2011.

     

    And wouldn't that take everybody by surprise as there are no news events to provide the catalyst - just the position structure of the players. If algo dip buyers get hit broadside by sell stop sellers look out. Flash crash is possible. Not co-signing on your time call here but it is sure in play at the moment.

     

    My guess is we need a hard sell off at the close which will change the trend of recent days and help to discourage the dip buyers.

     

    JS
    13 Feb 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • 440978
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    I agree with you wholeheartedly—I don't think a catalyst is needed, a "position structure of the players" is enough. One sign of complacency that I've heard from market participants is that they have been saying there are no catalysts for a selloff in the near-term. I don't think a catalyst is necessarily needed. As I wrote in my most recent blog posts and comments, the crash is already in process.

     

    It is like a MLB hitter that makes contact with a baseball and knows from the first that is a home run just as the ball leaves his bat and he is following through with his swing. We both agree that the bat made contact when Ben Bernanke and the Fed announced QE3 in September. At that point a stock market crash was inevitable but the question was when.

     

    I asked my intuition when? and it returned a powerful vision Valentine's day. The ball has been flying through the air and into the stands for the past weeks and its trajectory was established at the first contact. The "fool's gold rally" was part of the setup to establish the conditions that you describe with a 'ton' stop losses underneath this market. This made it possible for this crash that is quickly approaching that will break the trajectory of this cyclical bull market that began in 2009.

     

    Thanks, Joseph, for sharing your insights and predictions as well. I think we will both be shown to be correct in our views regarding the market.

     

    Good luck!
    14 Feb 2013, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • KennyKid
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    St. Louis Fed made a hawkish comment ... market did an about face.
    13 Feb 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph Stuber
    , contributor
    Comments (1716) | Send Message
     
    know

     

    By the way that correlation tends to break down at the end of the day as stocks tend to rally at the close. In other words the euro's climb supports higher stock prices. Intraday stock price action correlates well with the euro but in recent sessions as the euro has stayed down the stock price manipulators drive stocks higher at the close as they did yesterday.

     

    Consequently, you won't see as much correlation on a daily chart as you do on the intraday charts.

     

    JS
    14 Feb 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Exanimous
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    I'm really mad at KKW. All his valentines day posts are GONE I was looking at those daily!!!!
    7 Mar 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
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