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BlackBerry (BBRY -6.1%) adds to this week's losses following critical reports from National Bank...

BlackBerry (BBRY -6.1%) adds to this week's losses following critical reports from National Bank and Wedge Partners. NB has slashed its estimates, isn't happy with the delayed U.S. rollout of the Z10 and Q10, thinks cash/share might fall by over $1 in FY14, and foresees a major drop in high-margin services revenue as BB7 subs migrate to BB10 (previous). Wedge says it's receiving signs "U.S. carriers are not optimistic" about Z10 sales, and considers iOS/Android "simply too entrenched" within the country.
Comments (30)
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (1989) | Send Message
     
    the 'too entrenched' fear is simply unfounded given the high rates of users switching from iOS and Android in the countries where the Z10 has been released thus far.

     

    Any news that drives the stock down is good though because then I can buy more of it on the cheap!
    13 Feb 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    In the US the smartphone market is near saturation. The hindrance for dumbphone users to switch to smartphones is the high monthly fees, and not the subsidized device cost. So the US smartphone market is ahead of many other world markets in that it is becoming a replacement device market. Younger individuals may be more willing to switch, but older individuals tend to remain set in their ways and stick to products.

     

    The one bright spot in this is that existing BlackBerry users in the US may upgrade to the newer BB10 devices. A couple years ago the company released data indicating most of their user base was still using devices more than 2 1/2 years old. I would expect at least half of the existing US user base to switch at some point, if not locked into a contract, but that depends upon carrier policies on upgrades. Even considering this, I would place BB10 device sales worldwide at under 25 million units this year, and about 4 million units in the US.

     

    What BlackBerry really need is future BB10 devices that sell into the pre-paid market at low entry prices in the US, and we may not see those prior to the end of 2013. Things to watch on the next few quarterly reports will be mentions of user base conversion to newer BB10 devices, the percentage of revenues from software and services, and total sales volume of BB10 devices.
    13 Feb 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • john001
    , contributor
    Comments (559) | Send Message
     
    Now I know why the share price is down again today. The delayed US rollout was caused by carriers themselves. Talk about a self-fullfilling prophecy. This news smells like rotten Apple sauce.
    13 Feb 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Tufenk
    , contributor
    Comments (961) | Send Message
     
    Old news! Typing from my dev alpha b ,working fast & good for me
    13 Feb 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Lumaca
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    I'm noticing that only the bad news bob up...and what about the good news? What about the UAE sold out??
    13 Feb 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • cfezziwig
    , contributor
    Comments (437) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget about the 2700 north american corporations they signed up for Blackberry 10 Ready Program....guess that factoid doesn't count as much as unsubstantiated opinions by corrupt analysts.

     

    These corrupt analysts better be working overtime the next few months, once the quarterly results start coming in there's going to be a big short squeeze coming.
    13 Feb 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    It would be a surprise if the next quarterly shows much improvement. I think the quarterly after that will give us a much better idea of where BlackBerry (BBRY) is headed. There is a huge volume of open interest and still many options positions, so obviously analysts comments will be more directed at pushing around options.
    13 Feb 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (7849) | Send Message
     
    "What about the UAE sold out??"

     

    Peanuts.
    13 Feb 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • eldon wilk
    , contributor
    Comments (90) | Send Message
     
    So let me get this straight. The only people to buy this phone was some senile old lady and some blue collar dumb a$$ (me).
    And no advertising was used they just paid off carriers too say that phone was sold out so they could contact me or worse the old lady. My wife's going to kill me cause I have incredible urge to dump more money in this stock
    14 Feb 2013, 04:47 AM Reply Like
  • CGT77
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    Prophets of gloom and doom again... Never liked NB anyways... I never considered them a reliable source for anything.
    I still have my Torch and still use it a lot and still love it. I have 10 months to go on my contract, or else Rogers is asking me to pay $13 a month for the remainder of the contract, and I don't like wasting money... but I can't wait to get my hands on a Z10 or a Q10.
    13 Feb 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • chillspace
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    @CGT77 You do know that if you pay that $130 you can upgrade. The only obligation to Rogers regarding the HUP is that you pay off the remaining subsidy. Go get the Z10 now!
    13 Feb 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • CGT77
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    @chillspace Yes I do know, thank you, but like I said, I don't like wasting money. My daughter is switching over to Rogers at the end of the summer, so we decided that I'm going to give her my Torch. She's one of these young adults who really doesn't see the appeal of having access to 700,000 apps! All she wants is something reliable and secure. ;)
    14 Feb 2013, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • Crispin_in_Waterloo
    , contributor
    Comments (994) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Herr Hansa

     

    The market is expanding in the Far East and it seems the USA-based punters think the world revolves around St Loius or something. Jaw-dropping navel gazing.

     

    BB's in the Third World are hot, hot, hot. An unlocked 9900 sells for up to $925 in South Africa. Main features admired? BBM, BBM and BBM. My Torch (which I just yielded to me son) has a great camera in low light. The keyboards last for years. Build quality matters in overseas markets, geddit? You can't drop an iPhone 2 feet.

     

    If there really are 135m shares held by short-selling speculators of course the price is all over the place - just look at the early session selling profiles each day. This manipulation provides a very different picture from the sales department that 30-40% of BB10 buyers are switching from another OS in every market.

     

    The huge growth of the subscriber base during a 2 year period without a single new handheld on offer means there is a lot more to the story than some 'number of aps'.
    13 Feb 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    Definitely true, though I think lower priced BB10 devices will be important for future sales in Asian markets. The start with premium devices is more intended to make a mark in developed markets. I recall a survey of smartphone buying habits in the UK, and about 60% of BlackBerry users did buy another BlackBerry, though that was when BB6 was in use.
    13 Feb 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • dpmbba
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    BBRY hasn't closed below 50 day SMA since late September. Finding support here. Good time to cover and get long.
    13 Feb 2013, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • kherman
    , contributor
    Comments (752) | Send Message
     
    Notice all the negative articles all of a sudden. Ever wonder if they are being originated by funds that shorted BBRY just so they can get out?
    13 Feb 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    The market is always manipulated, and not just some companies. As independent investors we are just along for the ride. Hopefully we catch the right train, and don't get in a train wreck. ;)
    13 Feb 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Cliff Hilton
    , contributor
    Comments (1414) | Send Message
     
    This is not news. Next you'll be posting on SA what I write and I am no authority on the future. I wonder what all you smart guys are doing anymore. This is like a game to you smart guys that used to be in the know. I wonder if NB posted anything about the Asian car manufacturers (way back when), stating that they would never sell here in the states. What do they know?

     

    Let me give a shot here: Half of all Z10 and Q10 phones going to ios and Android users in the US. This statement carries as much weight as the post. Neither are based on any real data.

     

    Let NB give credible witness: names, location, sources.
    13 Feb 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • gstanden
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    Hi everyone. Your comments are beautiful and inspiring. My call options are really destroyed today. Even worse I don't get paid until a week from this Friday so I can't even buy more yet...hrrrumph!

     

    Well, if it slides more I can buy that much more on the 22nd. If it goes up there might be hope for my worthless options.

     

    BTW 45 minutes after they announced BBRY as the new ticker symbol I ordered it as my New York vanity plate and locked it it. Someone came along after me and got BBRY1.

     

    Cheers keep up the good comments chaps! It keeps me out of the dumps! Tough going right now...the darn shorts mucking about!
    13 Feb 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (7849) | Send Message
     
    You can buy puts, too. It's a free country.
    13 Feb 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • User 4121
    , contributor
    Comments (305) | Send Message
     
    Being the David versus all of the Goiaths (maybe just Apple and Google, excluding Microsoft, Blackberry needs to be creative to stretch their marketing dollars to make the masses consider why they might want to buy a BB 10 smartphone. I will be posting a bit more about this in all future SA articles about BBRY, to try to push Blackberry to follow my advice, but here are the points it will cover.

     

    1. Blackberry needs to come out with a short video, addressing several points and giving a concise explanation about the advantages of the features of their phone and how to it. The points they should cover are:

     

    a. How quickly people can get their work done or know who is contacting them, on a BB 10 due to its unique features (also indicating a quick demonstration will be at the end of the video).
    b. Mention other unique features of the BB 10, which will be demonstrated in a separate video. Included in this would be the overall ease of navigation, the best keyboard of all smartphones, which anticipates your next word you want, which you can choose by flicking it to the screen (making typing much easier and quicker), and Timeshift, allowing you to select the best picture within a couple of seconds window, not just one moment in time.
    c. Mention that, because the BB 10 is new, Blackberry is behind others smartphone makers at the present time, but is doing everything they can to get users their favorite apps and will tell them how to get them in other, less standard ways. Also announce that Blackberry will publish a list of the top 100 (or maybe 200) apps used by smartphone users, kept up to date by Blackberry daily, indicating a) whether they are now available in the Blackberry app store, b) if not avaiable, when they will be available, and c) if the apps are not available, some creative ways they can be accessed without a direct app, including porting from Google apps (if possible) and other methods mentioned by others.
    d. A quick (no longer than two minutes), clearly easy to understand, demonstration on how to use Blackberry's unique and most effective navigation system. This explanation should indicate Blackberry's navigation system may be a bit more difficult to learn than others, but is easily mastered and will save people a boatload of time. Blackberry could create several videos, starting from the basic level, to show how its navigation system works. Here's an example of how that could be done, using a video comparing Blackberry to Windows Phone 8.

     

    BTW, I like the categories that were selected in the comparison, which perhaps could be used by someone at Blackberry to prepare a written summary of how these features (or activities) compare in terms of ease of use for the BB 10 versus all other smartphones (but only if favorable to Blackberry). Those categories were ease of unlocking the phone, notification, peeking, notification light, local search, launching an app (including options available to do so), and multitasking. Others could be added.

     

    http://bit.ly/VSXGf6

     

    13 Feb 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (3976) | Send Message
     
    "isn't happy with the delayed U.S. rollout of the Z10 and Q10"

     

    One wonders sometimes how folks get qualified to opine on these things. This merely underlines the reduced importance of the US market to BBRY. BBRY is smart to prioritize its products in strong markets and to exit weak ones. Most observers already know this is the strategy.
    13 Feb 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    Actually, it indicates how much power the carriers have over the manufacturers in the United States. The success of future BlackBerry phones in the US depends heavily upon how the end user price levels, plans, and promotions are put forward in the future.
    13 Feb 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • boomdoger777
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    I guess the carriers want to get rid of some inventory before they rollout the Z10.
    13 Feb 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3079) | Send Message
     
    That has been the idea behind why Sprint (S) has not committed to the Z10. The idea is that Sprint have excess iPhone 5 inventories and do not want to add another slab form factor device to the available line-up. Apparently there is now a petition to get Sprint to commit to the Z10, but so far there has been no response from Sprint.
    13 Feb 2013, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • pabcanc
    , contributor
    Comments (222) | Send Message
     
    Apple is not the only one in trouble ...Google and Android too !
    13 Feb 2013, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • Rhinoish
    , contributor
    Comments (83) | Send Message
     
    ouch. I doubled up on the dip today at 14.2 thinking the bad news was over for the week, guess I was a day early. At least my first buy in was at 11
    14 Feb 2013, 04:40 AM Reply Like
  • Lumaca
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    I don't understand. Even today BB is down 1.7% in the pre-market. It's 5 days in a row that the stock is going down without really bad news at all. Some explanation?
    14 Feb 2013, 06:12 AM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (7849) | Send Message
     
    Because everyone's shorting it. Lackberry will remain a niche enterprise at best, thanks to Thorsten Heins' Siemens pedigree.
    14 Feb 2013, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • riyajain2727@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (122) | Send Message
     
    Sit tight.. Stock I'll eventually go to 100
    14 Feb 2013, 06:53 AM Reply Like
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