Initial Jobless Claims: +10K to 418K vs. 415K consensus. Continuing claims -50K to 3.69M.


Initial Jobless Claims: +10K to 418K vs. 415K consensus. Continuing claims -50K to 3.69M.
Comments (11)
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2241) | Send Message
     
    Still ugly....
    21 Jul 2011, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5123) | Send Message
     
    The new normal....9-25% unemployment...depends on how you calculate it....government vs reality.....
    21 Jul 2011, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16405) | Send Message
     
    One of the reasons, and a big one, for the "new normal" is that there's a rapidly increasing black market in cash-based business, both by prospective employers and employees.

     

    The added mandates on business by Government, along with a general anti-business bias, had for a long period led to an increasing number of businesses refusing to hire full-time employees. This has been demonstrated in the increasing percentage of temporary and contract employees. Now, the situation is becoming even more clandestine, with an increasing number of businessmen doing business on a cash-only basis, finding that they're better able to offer customers lower prices (tax free) and pay workers in cash, absent the myriad costs (healthcare, insurance, taxes, etc.) associated with full-time employees, or even contract employees. And, many former employees love this situation because they avoid taxes, or even the appearance of employment, thereby qualifying themselves for myriad Government support programs for added free money.

     

    And, the more the Government taxes, adds mandates and offers lavish welfare programs, the more this behavior will increase. Greece, in fact, is a very instructive example. This is the unavoidable perverse effect of socialism, which provides incentives both for sloth and deception.
    21 Jul 2011, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Bozerdog
    , contributor
    Comments (463) | Send Message
     
    Tack, my word you despise the gov.
    21 Jul 2011, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16405) | Send Message
     
    Boz:

     

    I despise socialism, which, regrettably, is becoming ever more synonymous with our government.
    21 Jul 2011, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Cincinnatus
    , contributor
    Comments (6187) | Send Message
     
    Tack makes a very good point. Socialism, burdensome regulation, and heavy taxation in many of the European countries has long been a problem in driving an increasing portion of the economy underground. When I moved to Sweden in the late '80s I bought a used car and almost every car I went to see was being sold by someone that was clearly buying, fixing up, and re-selling the cars under the table. My in-laws lived in Belgium and they said the problem was rampant there and it was normal to pay contractors in cash as it wouldn't be reported income.

     

    Fast forward to today and I see the same in the US taking place. My wife has bought two used cars in the last three years for her business through craigslist and they were both from guys that were doing the same under-the-table buy/fix/sell for unreported income that I first saw in Sweden. At least in my area with respect to used cars the practice is clearly commonplace. You'll see an ad selling a used car, and another add looking to buy autos that need repair, and the phone numbers on both ads are identical.

     

    www.hiva.be/nl/vorming...
    22 Jul 2011, 01:44 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (11227) | Send Message
     
    Non seasonally adjusted jobless claims...

     

    7/16/11 464,865
    7/17/10 502,065
    7/18/09 585,575
    7/16/05 374,665

     

    Continued slow slow downward drift of 52 week moving average
    of nonseasonally adjusted initial jobless claims...California's and Florida's 52 week moving average of NSA jobless claims continues
    move south...Needless to say Minnesota's has moved northward
    over the last 2 weeks....
    21 Jul 2011, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2241) | Send Message
     
    bbro..I love your eternal optimism.

     

    FL is improving because we are at one of the season peaks (Disney even stops the FL resident discount this time of year to take full $$ advantage). September/October will be the real defining time. That will show if we can hold the jobs or it was just temp.
    21 Jul 2011, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (11227) | Send Message
     
    Papa...using the 52 week M.A. should adjust for the Disney effect. If
    you could look at the chart for Florida it is one of the better states
    showing a stronger southward move in its 52 week M.A.. July 11th
    was last years mid year peak for Florida. This years mid year peak for Florida was at least 7000 less...
    21 Jul 2011, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Don't you think you ought to wait until next week to do this week's calculation after this week's claims have been, you know, unexpectly revised upward?
    21 Jul 2011, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Bozerdog
    , contributor
    Comments (463) | Send Message
     
    The swinging hammers aren't coming back, worker must re-tool. Only way to half this number is to create another bubble. Otherwise this is the norm.
    21 Jul 2011, 08:43 AM Reply Like
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