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BlackBerry (BBRY +3%) is rebounding a bit from last week's bludgeoning in spite of a critical...

BlackBerry (BBRY +3%) is rebounding a bit from last week's bludgeoning in spite of a critical note from Canaccord's Mike Walkley. Walkley, who's reiterating a Sell, joins Deutsche in arguing early Z10 sellout were due to limited supplies, and claims follow-up checks indicate "steady but modest sales levels." He's now forecasting just 300K BB10 sales for the Feb. quarter (ed: that seems low even if sales are light, considering channel inventory), down from a prior 1.4M.
Comments (31)
  • It's all about Q3 and Q4 baby.
    19 Feb 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Can't help but wonder if the house is short against clients' margined long positions in BB? Also, client cash tied up in BB not available to buy Canaccord underwritings;-)
    19 Feb 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • All of this speculation about what Blackberries early sales were could be alleviated if Blackberry just indicated what smartphone Hein is talking about for comparative sales purposes. Some people could possibly look that up, giving some strong hint of what the actual Z10 sales were without giving out a specific number or even a range of numbers. Does anyone know why Hein can't release sales numbers, specific or otherwise now.
    19 Feb 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • User -


    I've been trying to figure this out for a while now....the best (so far) I could come up with is BB sold 15 Million BB Pearls in 2006. I can't verify this but I think the Pearl was one of their top selling phones of all time and it was launched in 2006.


    So assuming this is the all-time-best-selling BB, and looking at a flat line for sales (although we know that's never the case as the first months get more sales for a new device), the monthly sales volume would be 15M / 12 = 1.25Million devices per month.


    Without going to a lot of math and speculation (i.e. CEO saying the new BB10 launch beat their best ever by 50%), I'd say that if BB sold just 1M new BB10s in the first month and will continue at this rate - 12 million devices in the first year - this stock will be a BIG winner.


    Anyone care to offer their interpretation/comments?
    19 Feb 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Looks good.
    But the number is based on region, and not world wide.
    19 Feb 2013, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • They are in silent mode.


    word from Waterloo is that the Z10 is selling beyond their expectations. That's a great sign.
    19 Feb 2013, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • Jim - I'm not sure what you mean the number is based on a region? The 2006 numbers are worldwide numbers for the Pearl.


    And in 2006 North America was prime territory for BBRY so I think that could be viewed as highly relevant for comparison sake with BB10 sales?
    20 Feb 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • He is too busy launching product to report further also if there is a really nice surprise upside the street will like this.
    The real story will emerge as launch normalizes in the US. imo
    19 Feb 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Without doubt there a few analysts trying to hold back the shares for self-interests. He may be one of them.
    19 Feb 2013, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Only 300,000 phones instead of 1.4 million phones to be sold? That's a huge swing. We shall wait for the official results next month.
    19 Feb 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Thor has to be very careful what he says, they don't (at least in the recent past) break out sales numbers by units. They also stopped giving guidance in the last few quarters, so if he is now changing that behavior he could into some reporting issues. I think he has said about all he can, if he starts getting too specific,,, not so good.


    Also, he doesn't seem like the type who wants to add to the speculation in the stock, preferring to let the numbers speak for themselves.
    19 Feb 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • if you are Long or Short on this stock and you haven't actually picked up a Z10 to see what all the fuss is about then I highly suggest you fork over the grand and buy one on ebay because 10 minutes with the thing and you will never go back to your iPhone.


    19 Feb 2013, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • @LYogi
    "if you are Long or Short on this stock and you haven't actually picked up a Z10 to see what all the fuss is about then I highly suggest you fork over the grand and buy one on ebay because..."


    You're joking right?
    20 Feb 2013, 02:42 AM Reply Like
  • Not at all Luke. Think about it: if you are betting tens of thousands of dollars without having even tried the product isn't that negligent or worse, stupid?
    20 Feb 2013, 07:46 AM Reply Like
  • @LYogi
    you don't invest on the product though, you invest on the potential.
    I've never drilled an oilwell doesn't mean I wont invest in an Oil company.
    I've never had a royal bank account. doesn't mean they aren't a good stock in my portfolio.


    Those who want to ARGUE on the merits of BB10 and BlackBerry10s demise or growth should pickup a BlackBerry10 device and see how it really is. but to invest there is ample data available by both bear and bull sources to make a investment decision without owning the product.
    20 Feb 2013, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • absolutely Stephen for most types of investments. In Tech, I would submit that it is a bit of a different principle as it is easy (usually) to get your hands on the product to determine its potential. At least in this way you ensure that you have the best available data/experience to determine whether you believe the product will be successful. Tech changes so fast that consumer loyalty can be fickle. Which raises another point - the loyalty of BB clients. Pretty astonishing considering how outdated BB7 became. So this bodes well for the company.


    Investors here on SA have been arguing the merits of BB's future back and forth for months now and very few have actually tried their new OS. Once they do the skeptics will be wooed. It is going to take time to dispel old stereotypes and prejudices that most people have towards the company but in time BB will prevail as the platform for the next decade. IMO
    20 Feb 2013, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Yogi,


    I invest in a lot of stocks, and as Stephen correctly points out, one need not purchase or test-drive each one to make decisions.


    One thing to keep in mind is that I may bet against something even if it's a stellar device based on news, sentiment, and momentum.
    Conversely I also bet on things that are generally dismissed as a non-starter like Nokia.


    I was a huge bear on $AAPL from $600-$700; not because it was a poor device, but because I saw that the very thing that made them special in the first place was no longer uniquely theirs.
    (IMHO BlackBerry shares this characteristic.)


    I do not hate the BB10, to the contrary, I like the device and went long at one point. But I see a disconnect from what the fans *think* about the device and what I believe to be *true* about the device. As long as i'm right on this point, there is a potential investment there.
    20 Feb 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • yes quite true, until we have actual sales data and the launch is fully rolled out then the stock trades on market sentiment and there is money to be made on the volatility. Power to you!
    20 Feb 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Stephen -


    I respectfully disagree. The key data right now is whether the BB10 is really selling as HOT as some bulls think. However, neither bulls or bears have definitive data on this and their outlooks are 180 degrees opposite each other.


    So who do you believe? no one at this point. (i.e. "there is NO ample data available from both bears and bulls")


    Getting the product in your hands is one way (assuming your'e savvy enough in understanding technology) to get a sense of it's appeal.
    20 Feb 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • @rephinbar


    The first iPhone, and the iPhone3G were both ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE products, If I were to base investing on the product and not the potential then look at the dollar values that would have been missed out on.


    Picking up a BlackBerry10 device you know NOTHING about BES10 from it, you know nothing about how BBRY is going to monetize its services.
    The Sell through information is why investing is a gamble, who do you believe? well you believe the people you trust, based on accuracy of past predictions, if their views have coincided with yours in the past.
    OR if you've done your own checks.
    I've spoken with 21 Rogers Locations, and 18 Bell locations since BlackBerry10 launch in a few population dense areas, and then a few rural areas. of the Rogers locations 5 of them I've spoke with more than 3 times.


    so I lean toward to Bullish reports on sell throughs because of the mostly positive responses I get when I do call arounds and drop ins. But I like doing my own research in addition to reading both sides of the argument
    20 Feb 2013, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • Z10 = $1500... $1450 if the manager likes me at Sawgrass Mills in Lauderdale unlocked .
    Sold 15 in 5 days


    No comment


    19 Feb 2013, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • I find Canaccords statistics really odd to be generous were they taken out of context because where did they get the stats for units shipped? Was it just to one country? Was it including the totality of Blackberry product offerings because if you go to the latest comments of the Ceo pre launch on units sold it sounds as if Canaccord isn't even calculating these ongoing shipments. Because really it should be at the least qualifying if these estimates are purely Z10 or all of BB's product unit offerings. Even assuming that Canaccords figures re BB Z 10 are on target.
    Also it can only get better as the new product launches take hold in the market. It is key though to note that BB is still supporting its legacy products notably in Japan for example.
    So I don't understand really what units Canaccord is referring it their estimate of the new product or is it new and old and that is all you get folks. Because if this is their figure for all bb units shipped then there was a huge and unreasonable in my mind drop off. Does this make sense? Canaccords stats don't provide context or perspective but yes they are attention getting.
    20 Feb 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • regarding sell outs because supplies were limited.....isn't that the case with any product that sells out?
    20 Feb 2013, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • They mean that inventories were unreasonably low and caused an artificial sell-out. Like giving a store 10 devices vs. 100...
    20 Feb 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Analysts cut Blackberry 10 sales projections from 1.75 million to 300 K
    20 Feb 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • @rephinbar the info that I've yet to get has been how MANY locations got devices.


    If you give 10,000 locations 10 devices and 9,000 of those locations sell out, and have back orders, is that better than giving
    1000 locations 100 devices and having zero sell outs?


    The Apple launch has historically been limited locations with lots of product supplied to those locations,
    BlackBerry launches have always been LOTS of locations with lower supplies
    I'm a fan of the BlackBerry distribution model as you get more sales people on the floor and can get more eyes on demo units,


    Except Apple stores are brilliantly laid out and something BlackBerry could learn from, as Microsoft is having the specialty store drives up demand for a product
    20 Feb 2013, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • Ok readers below is what is happening to Cannacord Capital These fellows can't get their own stuff together let alone have time to make a judgement on Blackberry .
    Cannacord is closing offices why ? that's simple Canadians have no faith in supporting what they seem to be trying to accomplish what ever that might be.
    They are just after free press probably to save on marketing costs maybe that's the only thing that would add to their bottom line.
    Canaccord closes half its offices
    Financial firm will have 16 locations and 180 advisory teams left
    The Canadian Press
    Wealth management firm Canaccord Financial Inc. is closing 16 branches across the country and reducing the number of advisers at the remaining Canadian locations, which will be concentrated in major cities.


    The move will cut the number of Canaccord offices by half, with 16 remaining. It wasn't clear how many people are affected.


    The company, which has its corporate head office in Vancouver but announced the downsizing from Toronto, will record $11.5 million of charges in its fiscal second quarter report — reflecting the cost of severance and office closures.
    20 Feb 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Okay, so that's a story on Canaccord, but what about Pacific Crest?


    [Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette asserts in a research note – one of a flurry of cautious comments from the Street over the last several days.


    “We believe the Street has gotten ahead of the potential reality for BB10 shipments,” he writes. “There is no line of sight to profitability; we remain sellers of BBRY.”]
    20 Feb 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • They must be protecting their short clients !!! you think
    20 Feb 2013, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • iPhone5 Is Worst Of The Top Smartphones: Consumer Reports


    Consumers Feb/report
    20 Feb 2013, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • Don’t Believe Everything You Hear; BlackBerry Z10 Sales Are Going Strong
    February 20, 2013 Niko Giannopoulos News 14 Comments
    Dont Believe Everything You Hear; BlackBerry Z10 Sales Are Going Strong


    A report surfaced today in which Canaccord Genuity analyst T. Michael Walkley slashed his estimates for the current quarter to 300,000 units sold. His firm had originally predicted 1.75 million units to be sold but after checking with retailers he found limited supply and demand which forced him to re do his numbers.


    What is strange to me is the timing and the fact of how erroneous that statement is. This piece of “news” actually has affected the stock negatively. According to our checks BlackBerry has sold out in many countries including the United Emirates. Pre-orders in Saudi Arabia are extremely high and most of the United Kingdom was sold out on day 1. Canada has seen a large volume of sales and some people are still on a wait list for Rogers. Also keep in mind the device is constantly being introduced to more markets.


    It’s sad to see how easy is for people to short the stock and make a quick buck. To make things worse, news outlets are reporting on this information with out any checks of their own.


    Don’t let them get you down #TeamBlackBerry. The new platform and devices are off to a fast start with only good news to look forward to. And unlike Mr. Michael Walkley I backed my editorial with actual facts.


    Read more:
    20 Feb 2013, 06:43 PM Reply Like
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